NL West Predictions 2018

5.  Colorado Rockies – 76-86

The Rockies are, on paper at least, a very good team.  Excellent offense led by one of the top leaders in baseball, Nolan Arenado.  A very good pitching staff led by a strong leader, Jon Gray, and a solid bullpen anchored by one of the best closers in baseball, Wade Davis.  However, unfortunately for the Rockies, baseball teams are more than just a sum of their various components.

Does Bud Black possess the requisite personality type to be a successful major league manager?  His track record does not speak well of him.

During his time in San Diego, the Padres had a losing record year after year.  The two seasons that were an exception – 2007 in his first year and 2010 – the team failed to make the playoffs.  Those teams had plenty of talent, yet they failed to make the playoffs even once.

Was the Rockies fade late last season simply because they are a young team, not yet ready for the rigors of a 162 game season?  Was it because the Pat Neshek trade hurt their bullpen’s chemistry?  Was it because the Rockies starting pitchers struggled in the altitude, and the offense was unable to outscore their poor performance?

Was it something else?  Was their fear in Bud Black’s eyes during last year’s National League Wild Card Game?  If your manager has fear in his heart, could that affect your on-field performance?  Make it difficult to accomplish the goal of winning games?

Look for the Rockies to, as always, score a ton of runs.  Look for their pitching, as always, to struggle overall.  Will it add up to wins, as it did last year?

In Bud Black’s first year with the Padres, in 2007, the team won 89 games.  They won 63 the next year, and then 75 the year after that.  Yikes.

Look for that trend to continue this year.

76 wins, 86 losses for the Rockies.

 

4.  Arizona Diamondbacks – 77-85

The Diamondbacks had a great year last year.  Does that necessarily mean that they will have success again this year?  Was their success last year due to good vibes in the clubhouse following a coaching change?  Was it a product of momentum?  In other words, did they just get hot for a year?  Or, are they going to “be around for years to come?”

The answer is probably somewhere in between.

The Diamondbacks have a very solid offense, led by a good player, Paul Goldschmidt.  Their rotation is led by a good starting pitcher, Zach Greinke.  And their bullpen is anchored by a bonafide OG named Archie Bradley.  Legit dude.

So, what’s the problem?

Does Zach Greinke have the requisite personality type to lead a major league starting rotation?  His performance in the National League Wild Card Game indicates that the answer is “no.”

Does Paul Goldschmidt have the requisite personality type to lead a major league team?  Perhaps he does, but there is certainly a dearth of charisma there.  It helps if your leader is charismatic.

Perhaps Goldschmidt, despite his lack of charisma, is a leader.  But, wouldn’t someone with Greinke’s personality type fit better behind an outspoken, hyper-alpha type like Eric Hosmer?  Perhaps a mid-season trade would benefit both sides.

Clearly, there is a type-A leader on the Diamondbacks staff.

Look for the team to struggle early in the season.  “Where will Zach Greinke end up?”, will be the big question.  After he is traded, look for that pitcher to emerge, and have a huge breakout performance in the second half.  A leadership void will always be filled by a natural leader.

Still, this will be a transitional year for the Diamondbacks.

77 wins, 85 losses.

 

3.  Los Angeles Dodgers – 84-78

If the Dodgers couldn’t win the World Series last year, when will they?  The answer is “never” so long as Andrew Friedman is running the team.  That’s right.  Here at SABR Skeptic we can say with absolute certainty that the Dodgers will never win the World Series unless they replace Friedman.

Trading AJ Ellis was a giant slap in the face to the entire clubhouse, and to Clayton Kershaw in particular.  That isn’t going to end well for Mr. Friedman.  The chemistry fairy has a long memory, and will haunt him until his dying day.

Now, Ellis is back in the division.  That won’t help the Dodgers’s cause this season.

Neither will the fact that Friedman, in his pompous arrogance, felt that the best way to follow up on the Ellis trade was to double down by trading Adrian Gonzalez to the Braves.  After Ellis, no one on the team was as important to the Dodgers’s chemistry as Gonzalez.  Now, he’s gone as well.  Yikes.

Matt Kemp being back will only serve to remind everyone on the team of Friedman’s arrogance and callous disregard for the emotional makeup of the team.

“Hey, Kemp’s back!” will then be followed up by “but where the hell are Adrian Gonzalez and AJ Ellis?” in the team’s collective unconscious.  A constant reminder of Friedman’s vulgar pride.

Look for Kershaw to struggle in particular.  Will that be because of back injuries?  Or will it be because he will be asking himself all year “where the hell is AJ Ellis?”

No question, the Dodgers are extremely talented, in all three facets of the game.  But, a baseball team is more than the sum of its three facets.

Besides, the Dodgers ceased to be a team the moment they traded away Ellis.  Now, they are nothing more than a science experiment.  It will fail, badly.

84 wins, 78 losses, for the Dodgers.

 

2.  San Francisco Giants – 87-75

San Francisco should win this division this season.  With the analytics disaster underway in Southern California, the team from up North was well positioned to reclaim their place atop the NL West.

The front office made what look to be two excellent additions in Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen.  Longoria and McCutchen are two of the best leaders in baseball.  Both are clearly alpha males, who have anchored their extremely successful franchises for years.

The Giants have a great leader in Buster Posey, but, with his injury history can he still anchor a division winning team?  The additions of Longoria and McCutchen render that question moot.  They will provide ample protection for Posey, and the rest of the players on the team.

Madison Bumgarner’s injured pinkie will keep the Giants from taking off out of the gate.  Once he returns, will he be able to keep himself off the dirtbike for a few months?  I would hope so.  I would think so … (maybe wait until the offseason for that next time, Madison).  Once he returns, his presence will anchor an excellent pitching staff.

Mark Melancon should bounce back and stay healthy.

And, the Giants have one of the best managers in the game, in Bruce Bochy.

Still, a major problem exists.

The Giants have decided to honor Barry Bonds.  He is now a member of the team’s front office, and the team will be retiring his jersey this season.

Barry Bonds has been implicated in the use of PEDs.

As well run an organization as the Giants are, as excellent as their clubhouse culture is, as legit their team is with the additions of McCutchen and Longoria, could the team get hit with a bout of bad karma for honoring someone with a character such as Bonds’s?

Bonds’s jersey will be retired in August.  Just in time for a late season collapse.

87 wins, 75 losses for the Giants.

 

1.  San Diego Padres – 90-72

The San Diego Padres are a team that possesses a ton of good karma.

Eric Hosmer has been the bete-noire of the intelligentsia for a long time.  Something about him.  They just love to hate him, don’t they?

Hosmer is the kind of player who can single-handedly turn around a team.  A true leader, his presence on the team will lift everyone around him.  His presence in the lineup will take the pressure off of everyone else in it.  It will ease the burden on Wil Myers, and it will allow the Padres good young players like Hunter Renfroe and Austin Hedges to flourish.  Add to that the addition of good veteran players like Chase Headley and Freddy Galvis, and the Padres have an excellent lineup.

The Padres also have AJ Ellis on their roster as a backup catcher.  Remember him?  The Dodgers sure do.  Look for the Padres to perform well head-to-head against the Super Team this year.

They also have an excellent manager, Andy Green.  Green clearly possesses the requisite makeup for a major league manager.  His players clearly love playing for him, and they should be highly inspired following last year’s events with the Dodgers.

The obvious question is this: will the Padres have enough starting pitching?

Tyson Ross is back on the team.  He’s pretty good.  Luis Perdomo and Dinelson Lamet have been serviceable of late.  And Clayton Richard has shown flashes of brilliance at times the last few seasons.

Will this be enough for the Padres to win the NL West?

Their farm system is teeming with young pitching talent.  Could one or two of those arms come up and make an impact this season?  Could they be flipped for a big time starter at the trade deadline?

Perhaps a better question is this: will a team with a bad manager, or a team with poor leaders in leadership positions, or a team that traded away its heart and soul, or a team that’s honoring Barry Bonds, win the NL West?  Could they?

Everyone is saying that the Padres have no chance.  That this division is obviously going to be won by the Super Team.  Just like the Dodgers were obviously going to win game 5 of the World Series, up 4-0 with Clayton Kershaw on the mound.  Obviously.  

90 wins, 72 losses, for the Padres.

 

Individual predictions, etc.

1. Charlie Blackmon will be traded at this year’s trade deadline.
2. Zach Greinke will be traded at this year’s trade deadline.
3. Taijuan Walker will breakout following Greinke being traded, and will clearly establish himself as the Diamondbacks ace.
4. Robbie Ray’s ERA will be no lower than 4.50.
5. Clayton Kershaw’s ERA will be no lower than 4.00.
6. Buster Posey will hit at least 18 home runs, and his slugging percentage will be no lower than .500.
7. Brandon Belt will hit at least 24 home runs, his batting average will be no lower than .260, his on base percentage will be no lower than .400, and his slugging percentage will be no lower than .525.
8. Brandon Crawford’s batting average will be no lower than .300, his slugging percentage will be no lower than .460, and he will hit at least 20 home runs.
9. Johnny Cueto’s ERA will be no higher than 3.75, he will win at least 12 games and he will throw at least 175 innings.
10. Hunter Renfroe’s batting average will be no lower than .275, his slugging percentage will be no lower than .550, and he will hit at least 35 home runs.
11. Austin Hedges’s batting average will be no lower than .280,  his slugging percentage will be no lower than .470 and he will hit at least 24 home runs.

 

Flow of the Season

Both the Rockies and Diamondbacks will get off to poor starts.  The Padres will be about .500 through April, as will the Dodgers.  Kershaw will struggle badly on Opening Day, and will struggle badly through May.  His ERA will be above 5.00 on Memorial Day.  The Giants will also be about .500 to that point in the season.  The Rockies and Diamondbacks will be out of the picture, and will be established as trade deadline sellers.

Around Memorial Day, Kershaw will improve.  The team will improve overall as well, and will have a terrific stretch in June and July.  The Giants will also take off around this point, when Bumgarner returns from injury.  At the break the Giants and Dodgers will be tied for first, but the Padres will hang around.  They will be in the mix for a Wild Card spot, and will trail the Giants and Dodgers by 8 games.

The Dodgers will acquire a major bat and a major arm at the trade deadline.  The Giants will mostly stand pat.

The Giants will honor Bonds in August.  At the time, they will be on pace to win 97 games.  They will first fade, and then they will collapse in September.  They will hold on to make the playoffs, barely, as a second wild card team.

The Padres and Dodgers play a three game series at Dodger Stadium in late August.  The Padres will sweep that series.  They will then surge, and the Dodgers will then collapse.  It will be a brutal collapse, to rival the September collapse from last year.  This time, they will collapse right out of the playoffs.

The Padres will overtake both the Dodgers and the Giants and win the division.

 

Will Clayton Kershaw return to Los Angeles after the 2018 season?  Or was that question answered the moment the team traded AJ Ellis?