5. Oakland Athletics – 59-103
How is Billy Beane still in charge of this team?
In 2014, after trading Yoenis Cespedes, the anchor of the team’s lineup and the unambiguous leader of the team, the Oakland Athletics collapsed. A team that could have won its third division in as many years, and maybe even a World Series, ended up barely making the playoffs as a second Wild Card team, losing in that round to the Kansas City Royals.
The intelligentsia widely praised Beane for “going all in,” having traded Cespedes for ace pitcher Jon Lester. They failed to understand the impact that losing Cespedes had on the entire team, an impact that couldn’t be made up for – not even close – by having Jon Lester pitch a game every 5 days.
Following the season, “going all in” on a sell-off made sense for Beane. The team was without its leader, Cespedes. Might as well trade away Donaldson, Moss, etc. and start over.
Doing so actually went pretty well for Beane. The As appeared to be on the cusp of contention again, with a solid team built around a talented group of young position players, led by first baseman Ryon Healy.
So what does Beane do? Naturally, he traded Healy away.
Matt Olson had a lot of success last year, when he was protected by Ryon Healy. Is Olson up for being the leader of this team? For anchoring a lineup?
Will Kendall Graveman be the same pitcher without the protection of both Sonny Gray and Jesse Hahn?
Khris Davis is an excellent power hitter. In fact, you could argue that, on paper, he is an even better hitter than Cespedes. But, does he have the personality type of a leader, like Cespedes does? The numbers don’t tell the whole story. Not even close.
The A’s have one of the most passionate fan bases of any team in Major League Baseball. They deserve better than the Analytics Disaster, Intelligentsia Fail teams that Beane runs out there year after year.
This should be his last season in Oakland.
59 wins, 103 losses for the Athletics.
4. Seattle Mariners – 72-90
Why does anyone think this team will be successful this season?
Mike Scioscia is the big dog in Anaheim. Jerry Dipoto tried to overtake him, and failed. Weak. Then he turned and ran, like a coward, to Seattle.
The team he has assembled will be an Analytics Disaster, also known as an Intelligentsia Fail.
The team is crying out for a leader. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are both excellent power hitters, to be sure. Are either of them leader types? Without a leader, it doesn’t matter how talented the rest of the players in the lineup are. Achieving the goal of winning games will prove difficult.
The pitching staff is decent. But the absence of a leader from the team has ripple effects that go beyond the lineup. The pitchers may feel the need to overcompensate, putting extra pressure on themselves to perform. That can lead to ineffectiveness, and even injury.
It doesn’t help that Jerry Dipoto felt the need to trade away budding ace Taijuan Walker. As super-awesome as Jean Segura’s all-in-one stats are, he’s a long way from Walker in terms of leadership, and he certainly isn’t the kind of anchor that this lineup sorely needs. Perhaps they could have acquired a player like Matt Kemp instead of the overrated Segura.
Could Ryon Healy be the leader this team needs?
He’s too young. He clearly is a leader type, but that doesn’t mean he can anchor a lineup featuring established stars like Cano, Cruz and Kyle Seager.
No amount of “firepower” in the bullpen can make up for the fact that this team is horribly constructed.
As if it wasn’t bad enough already, it goes without saying that Scott Servais should not be managing a Major League Baseball team. He should quit. Maybe Dipoto can try managing the team himself? They would be an even bigger disaster than they were under Servais. At least he’s likable.
The Mariners ownership should fire Dipoto before he can sell at the deadline. This team is one player away from contention. Perhaps Matt Kemp will be available after this season?
If they do allow him to blow up the team at the deadline, they should fire him in the offseason and let someone who knows what he’s doing oversee their rebuild.
72 wins, 90 losses for the Mariners.
3. Houston Astros – 81-81
Five out of the last seven World Series champions failed to make the playoffs the next season.
So, the Astros’s success last year necessarily means they will succeed again this year … right?
Wrong.
Since when has the intelligentsia cared about postseason results anyway? When old-school teams like the Giants and Royals were winning the World Series, their tune was “it’s small sample size theater.” Now they beam with pride that their darlings, the Astros, are champions. And they tell us that they are “objective”, “without bias or emotion.”
Sure they are.
What effect will Carlos Beltran’s retirement have on the team? Beltran’s veteran presence clearly had a major positive impact on the Astros early last season, helping them establish themselves as the best team in the division. Torii Hunter’s departure from the Twins after the 2015 season clearly hurt them the next season. Will Beltran’s absence cause a similar effect with the Astros this season?
No question the Astros have a talented group of position players. They are a well constructed team, with true leaders in leadership positions. But that doesn’t guarantee success over the course of a 162 game baseball season.
Will Dallas Keuchel’s impending free agency be a distraction? He is an integral component of this team’s chemistry. Will Lance McCullers be able to stay healthy? If so, will he be effective?
How will the bullpen’s chemistry be? Ken Giles faded badly down the stretch last season. How will he fare with the addition of an established closer, Hector Rondon, to the mix?
The Astros are under a lot of pressure having won the World Series last year. Will they be able to hold the throne, or will their reign on the top be short, like leprechauns?
I’d bet on the latter.
81 wins, 81 losses for the Astros.
2. Texas Rangers – 91-71
Why not?
The Rangers have had success in this division year after year. Last year was a rare exception.
Adrian Beltre is one of the best leaders in baseball. He’s healthy now after an injury-plagued 2017.
Joey Gallo looks like he could hit a ball 600 feet. Legit.
That’s an excellent 1-2 punch for a lineup. Wow.
The players around them are excellent. And the starting rotation is led by a legit dude named Cole Hamels. Yu Darvish’s impending free agency was a huge distraction for this team last year. With him gone, look for Hamels to bounce back in a big way this year. Jon Daniels did a great job of adding pitchers to support him.
The lack of an established closer could be a problem for this team. But, relief pitching is overrated anyway. Someone will establish themselves and anchor the bullpen. If not, the Rangers have pieces that they could use to add a reliever at the trade deadline. Or maybe Tim Lincecum could re-invent himself and close games for this team?
This team has a lot going for it. On paper that is. Beyond that, there are even more reasons for optimism.
The Rangers clearly have one of the best clubhouse cultures in all of baseball, led by their manager Jeff Bannister. He sets an excellent tone for the whole team. No wonder they have had so much success with him at the helm. This year should prove no different.
91 wins, 71 losses for the Rangers.
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – 94-68
The Angels are bigger than Shohei Otani. They’re bigger than Mike Trout, as last year showed.
The conventional wisdom around the Angels has been wrong for years.
They won more games than anyone in 2014. Did they lose their momentum that year heading into the playoffs, having clinched their division well before the playoffs began? It’s a common phenomenon in October baseball.
The next year was a transitional year, as Mike Scioscia and Jerry Dipoto’s feud came to a head. Is it better for the Angels that that power struggle resulted in Dipoto out of town, and Scioscia triumphant? The team’s finish to that season indicates that the answer is “yes.”
In 2016, the team struggled.
“Trade Mike Trout,” clamored the intelligentsia. “This team needs to rebuild,” they said.
Not so much.
Pre-2017, the new front office infused the team with free agents. The team got off to a great start, including overcoming a 6 run deficit in the 9th inning early in the season against – guess who – Jerry Dipoto’s Mariners. Go figure. Situation matters. Moment matters.
When Trout injured his thumb a few weeks later, “the Angels are finished” said the intelligentsia.
Not so much.
The next six weeks were a case study in the utter uselessness of “Wins Above Replacement.”
When Trout returned, the team struggled. Go figure. Almost as though basic human psychology has an impact on the outcome of sporting events. Who knew?
Although they missed the playoffs, the Angels finished ahead of Jerry Dipoto’s Mariners in the standings, including a dominant 4 game sweep at a pivotal point in the season. Situation matters. Moment matters.
A successful season, all things considered.
Clearly, the Angels were trending upward heading into this offseason. Yet “trade Mike Trout” was still (is still) the word of the intelligentsia.
Then, the Angels beat out the Mariners for Shohei Otani. There was Mike Scioscia at a pep rally in Anaheim to introduce him a few days later. Jerry Dipoto – weak. Mike Scioscia – OG. The Big Kahuna. Look for Dipoto’s Mariners to fall apart as the Angels assert themselves as the top dog in the division yet again.
94 wins, 68 losses for the Angels.
Individual Predictions, etc.
- Matt Olson’s slugging percentage will be no higher than .400. He will hit no more than 20 home runs.
- Kendall Graveman’s ERA will be no lower than 4.75.
- Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Felix Hernandez will all be traded at the trade deadline.
- Marco Gonzales’s ERA will be no lower than 5.00
- Juan Nicasio’s ERA will be no lower than 4.50.
- Carlos Correa’s batting average will be no higher than .270, his on base percentage will be no higher than .330, his slugging percentage will be no higher than .450, and he will hit no more than 22 home runs.
- Gerritt Cole’s ERA will be no higher than 3.20.
- Lance McCullers’s ERA will be no lower than 4.20.
- Ken Giles will struggle early in the season. Hector Rondon will be the closer for the Astros by Memorial Day.
- Joey Gallo will lead the American League in home runs.
- Cole Hamels’s ERA will be no higher than 3.30. He will win at least 16 games, and he will throw at least 200 innings.
- Martin Perez’s ERA will be no higher than 4.20, and he will win at least 10 games.
- Albert Pujols will have 100 RBIs at the season’s end (they matter).
- Shohei Otani’s ERA will be no lower than 4.00. He will be exclusively a starting pitcher by Memorial Day.
- Garrett Richards’s ERA will be no higher than 3.00.
Flow of the Season
The Athletics will get off to a terrible start. The Mariners will get off to a bad start. Both teams will be established as trade deadline sellers by Memorial Day.
The Astros will be mediocre early. They will be no better than 2 games over .500 on Memorial Day.
The Rangers and Angels will both get off to excellent starts. They will be tied on Memorial Day, well ahead of the Astros in the standings.
The Astros will be mediocre all year. The Rangers and Angels will be neck-and-neck for the division title all year. The Rangers will trade for a pitcher and an outfielder at the trade deadline. The Angels will beat them for the division title. The Rangers will be the first Wild Card team.
SABR Skeptic 