NL Central Predictions 2018

5.  Cincinnati Reds – 74-88

The Reds aren’t as far off as people think.  The team has an excellent, albeit slightly obnoxious leader in Joey Votto.  They have a solid group of young position players around him.  They have some good young arms in the starting rotation, including Amir Garrett, Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani.  And they have a good young bullpen ace in Raisel Iglesias.

In fact, the Reds could have been a contending team this year.  The conventional wisdom that no one player can turn around a team is patently false.  Eric Hosmer will do just that for the Padres this year, as will Jorge Soler for the Royals.  Yoenis Cespedes did just that for the Mets in 2015.

Often, teams are a leader-type player in one facet of the game away from contending.  That’s the position the Reds are in now.

The Reds have some good prospects.  Hunter Greene, the young starting pitcher, appears to be an ace type.  He’s a keeper.  Beyond that, though, the Reds already have the players they need in order to be a good team.  Do they need to keep Nick Senzel around when they have a third baseman already, Eugenio Suarez?  Do they need to hoard outfield prospects Taylor Trammel and Jesse Winker when they already have Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler?  Do they need Tyler Mahle when they already have a ton of good young arms in the rotation, not to mention Hunter Greene waiting in the wings?

Here’s the point.  What if the Reds had offered, say, Senzel, Trammel, Winker and Mahle to the Tigers for Michael Fulmer this past offseason.  Would the Tigers have turned down that offer?

The Reds don’t need those prospects anymore.  They should be willing to trade any of them except for Greene if it means acquiring an ace type starting pitcher.  That’s the only thing that’s missing in order for this team to contend.

Votto, Fulmer, and Iglesias would give them leader-types in all three facets of the game.  Success would follow shortly thereafter.  If they can’t acquire Fulmer, they should focus on acquiring another ace starting pitcher.

This team doesn’t need to “rebuild.”  Prospects are overrated.

As such, the team has a leadership vacuum in the rotation.  No matter how high Joey Votto’s OBP is, it can’t make up for that.

74 wins, 88 losses for the Reds.

 

4.  Milwaukee Brewers – 80-82

 

The Brewers, contrary to conventional wisdom, had a bad offseason.

David Stearns made two poor decisions.

First, he signed Lorenzo Cain to a 5 year, $100 million contract.  Cain is highly overrated.

9/10 of what makes a player great is slugging.  1/10 is hitting for average.  Everything else – defense, baserunning, arm strength – is irrelevant.  Unless you are David Peralta, your defense will suffice (and the Diamondbacks somehow managed to win 93 games last year with him misplaying fly ball after fly ball.  Again, defense is irrelevant).

Add Cain to the list of players – including Jayson Heyward, Kevin Kiermaier, and Jean Segura – who are vastly overpaid due to the obsession with defense, baserunning and arm strength.  Overpaid players tend to struggle.  See, for example, the aforementioned Jayson Heyward.

Then, Stearns made another foolish error.  He traded four top prospects – including one of the top prospects in all of baseball, Luis Brinson – to the Marlins, for Christian Yelich.  Oh boy.  Speaking of players who are overrated because of the misconception that “best all-around player” means “best player.”  It doesn’t.

Yelich had a high OBP with the Marlins.  Who couldn’t, when they’re protected by Giancarlo Stanton?

Is Yelich a good player?  Sure.  Is he worth giving up four top prospects for?  No.  He isn’t.  Look for him to struggle as he tries to prove he was worth that haul.

The Brewers already had four outfielders when they added Cain and Yelich.  The phrase “too many cooks spoil the broth” comes to mind.

The Brewers would have been far better off keeping the four prospects that they traded to Miami.  And they would have been better off investing the $100 million they gave to Cain elsewhere.

On top of all this, Jimmy Nelson is on the DL.  Zach Davies is a good pitcher, but, Jimmy Nelson is the clear ace of this rotation.  Without him, the Brewers just won’t be the same team.

Corey Knebel is clearly a good closer, and Josh Hader is emerging as a good reliever.

This team does have talent.  But will that talent add up to wins?

Craig Counsell is a good manager.  And the team does have what appears to be a leader type in Ryan Braun.  However, it’s hard to say with people of Braun’s character.

As long as Braun is the leader of this team, they will not win their division.  They certainly will not win the World Series.  Their first priority should be to get rid of him.  If they could trade him for a “replacement level” player, they should leap at the opportunity.  If ownership was on board, they should just waive him.  The $100 million they gave to Cain would have been put to better use just paying Braun to leave.

A team without a leader has a better chance of winning than a team with a leader like Ryan Braun.

80 wins, 82 losses for the Brewers.

 

3.  St. Louis Cardinals – 83-79

The Cardinals are usually a safe bet to be a good team.  They have one of the best team cultures in all of baseball.  Their farm system always seems to produce talented major leaguers.  They have a good manager, Mike Matheny, and one of the best leaders in all of baseball, Yadier Molina.

So, why does SABR Skeptic have the Cardinals falling just short of the playoffs in 2018?

What’s the first principle of SABR Skepticism?  It isn’t good karma when your front office is accused of stealing data from a rival team.  No wonder the Cardinals have struggled defensively so badly in recent years.  The Cardinals may need to part ways with John Mozeliak in order to truly move on from this scandal.

The Cardinals, as always, have a good team on paper this year.  Still, this year should be a transitional year for the team.

The team has a leader already, Yadier Molina.  Trading for Marcell Ozuna was a good move.  He will be a welcome addition to a lineup that already includes Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, and “Cardinal Way” guys like Tommy Pham and Paul Dejong.  Still, the team could use improvement.  Look for them to be a player in free agency next offseason.

On the pitching staff, a star will emerge.  Alex Reyes is exactly what you want in an ace starting pitcher – an extremely talented, unambiguous alpha male.  Look for him to anchor that starting rotation for years to come.  However, he will start the season on the DL as he finishes his recovery from Tommy John surgery.  The Cardinals will miss him until he returns.  And once he does, will he be allowed to pitch to his full potential?  Will he start, or will he pitch out of the bullpen?  Will St. Louis be the latest team to have an innings limit controversy?  It’s hard to win with a half-measure.

Either way, this looks like a transitional year.

83 wins, 79 losses for the Cardinals.

 

2.  Pittsburgh Pirates – 88-74

The Pittsburgh Pirates are not rebuilding.  Andrew McCutchen and Gerritt Cole’s departures will give this team a big addition by subtraction.

Here’s why.

Gerritt Cole looked to be an ace starting pitcher early in his career.  However, he was exposed, badly, in the 2015 NL Wild Card game.  Matched up against OG Jake Arrieta, Cole surrendered two first inning home runs.  Game over (Mad Dog Russo will tell you, in case you didn’t know, big game matters).

Cole stumbled badly in 2016 and 2017, two seasons plagued by injury and ineffectiveness.  Some ace.  The Pirates will be better off without him.

How about McCutchen?

After the aforementioned 2015 Wild Card game, McCutchen complained about the playoff format.  His comments put a ton of pressure on the Pirates to win their division that season … after all, if they ended up in the Wild Card game again, “woe-is-us” would be the team’s mentality.  No wonder they missed the playoffs entirely that year and the next.  Nor is it any wonder that McCutchen has fallen off since then.

His departure will allow Gregory Polanco to take over as the leader of the team.  Look for him to have a huge breakout season.

It will also open a spot in the outfield for Austin Meadows.  Meadows will start the season in AAA.  Some may think that Meadows has fallen off because his performance in the minors declined of late.  They’re wrong.  Meadows is ready to play in Major League Baseball now.  He needs to be there in order for his talent to be fully expressed (a similar dynamic was at work with Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez prior to their MLB debuts).  Look for Meadows to come up and make a big impact as Starling Marte struggles without PEDs.  Josh Bell should also continue to emerge.

The Pirates have one of the best managers in baseball, Clint Hurdle.  They have a very talented, young team.  Although they could get off to a poor start, they are just the kind of team that could go on a major second half run, and get into the playoffs as a Wild Card team.  SABR Skeptic thinks that they will do just that.

88 wins, 74 losses for the Pirates.

 

1.  Chicago Cubs – 96-66

It’s hard not to like the Chicago Cubs.  Joe Maddon may just be the best manager in all of baseball.  Is it the petting zoos?  The pajama parties?  The magic shows and inspirational art?  Who knows.

Whatever it is, its impossible to dispute that Joe Maddon has done an excellent job with the Chicago Cubs.  Everything the guy touches seems to turn to gold.

The Cubs have an excellent roster.

Anthony Rizzo is one of the best leaders in all of baseball.  He anchors an excellent lineup, which also features Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Willson Contreras.  Legit.

Leading all of Spring Training in home runs as of this writing, Ian Happ appears poised for a breakout season.  Yet another gem from the Cubs excellent farm system.

Their pitching staff is one of the best in baseball.  Jon Lester is poised for a bounceback season.  Jose Quintana for a full season won’t hurt.  And the Cubs added the best pitcher on the market this past offseason, Yu Darvish.  And did I forget to mention The Professor, aka Kyle Hendricks?  Modern day Greg Maddux.

Sure, it’s debatable whether Brandon Morrow will be an effective closer for a full season, but the Cubs could trade for a reliever at the deadline if necessary.

Whatever problems may exist, look for Maddon to find a way to tie it all together.

96 wins, 66 losses for the Cubs.

 

Individual Predictions, etc.

1. Scott Schebler’s slugging percentage will be no higher than .440, and he will hit no more than 24 home runs.
2. Lorenzo Cain’s batting average will be no higher than .265, his on base percentage will be no higher than .315, and his slugging percentage will be no higher than .360.  He will hit no more than 9 home runs.
3. Christian Yelich’s batting average will be no higher than .260, his on base percentage will be no higher than .335, and his slugging percentage will be no higher than .370.  He will hit no more than 12 home runs.
4. Zach Davies will win no fewer than 14 games.  His ERA will be no higher than 3.75.
5. Carlos Martinez’s ERA will be no higher than 3.10.  He will win no fewer than 15 games.
6. Michael Wacha will win no fewer than 14 games, and his ERA will be no higher than 3.40.
7. Tyler Glasnow will make at least 18 starts for the Pirates.  His ERA will be no lower than 4.50.
8. Jameson Taillon will win no fewer than 15 games.  His ERA will be no higher than 3.40.
9. Starling Marte will struggle early in the season.  Austin Meadows will replace him in the outfield by Memorial Day.
10. Gregory Polanco’s slugging percentage will be no lower than .520.  He will hit no fewer than 30 home runs.
11. Kyle Schwarber’s batting average will be no lower than .250.

 

Flow of the Season

The Cubs will get off to an excellent start.  They will set the pace in the division all year, and will be amongst the best teams in baseball, if not the best team in baseball, all year.

The Cardinals and Brewers will both be mediocre to start.  The Reds will be decent early.  The Pirates will not get off to a good start.

On May 1, the Cubs will lead the division over the Cardinals and Brewers by six games.  The Pirates will be way out of 1st place.  Their low point on the season will be six games under .500, a point they will reach around this time.

In May, with the return of Alex Reyes, the Cardinals will start to play better.  Still, the Cubs will be playing so well that the Cardinals, indeed no other team in the division, will threaten them all year.

The Reds will fade by Memorial Day.

Around this time, the Pirates will make two changes.  They will replace the struggling Starling Marte with Austin Meadows.  They will also add Tyler Glasnow to the rotation.  Upon doing so, they will take off, and get into the playoff picture.  They will be in the mix for the playoffs by the All-Star Break.

Jimmy Nelson’s return will help the Brewers, but they will remain mediocre.  They will hover around .500 all year.

The Pirates will make a late season run at a playoff spot, and will make it as the first Wild Card team.  The Cardinals will fade, and be eliminated early in the final week of the season.

The Cubs will clinch the division with ample time left in the season.  Joe Maddon will keep things interesting, as always.