5. Detroit Tigers – 68-94
The Tigers made a huge mistake when they traded Justin Verlander.
Brad Ausmus clearly was not the right man to manage the team in recent years. Anytime you see a team with as much talent as the Tigers – Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Victor Martinez, Michael Fulmer, Yoenis Cespedes, Jordan Zimmermann, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler … that’s as much talent as any team in baseball has had the last few years, if not more – performing as badly as they have, you should look to the manager.
Ausmus clearly was not creating a good vibe in the Tigers clubhouse. They should have fired him, and given the team a chance with a proven manager, before trading away the future Hall of Fame pitcher. If they had done that, then they could have won this division every year for the next three years, at least. Anytime you have a team anchored by two hall of famers – Cabrera and Verlander, in this case – you have a team that should contend perennially.
If they had kept Verlander and replaced Ausumus with Gardenhire anyway, then they could have won a World Series. Instead, they are now rebuilding.
Gardenhire will create a better atmosphere in the clubhouse than Ausmus did. The players will perform better. Look for Miguel Cabrera, in particular, to have a big bounce back season. He, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Jordan Zimmermann and Michael Fulmer could all be traded at the deadline this year, netting the team some good prospects.
The rebuild should go well, in other words, but the team sold prematurely. They should have given the team a chance with a proven manager. If that didn’t work out, then that would have been the time to sell. It was at least worth a shot. As such, the team will not be good. Oops.
68 wins, 94 losses for the Tigers.
4. Chicago White Sox – 79-83
The White Sox seem to have a bright future. Their farm system is loaded with top prospects. Yoan Moncada is poised to break out. Eloy Jimenez and Michael Kopech will make a huge impact. Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Tim Anderson and Matt Davidson are already contributing.
This year will be a transitional year for the team. Michael Kopech and Eloy Jimenez will be ready for The Show, soon. Until then, the team will struggle to win games.
Look for James Shields to be traded at the deadline this year. Jose Abreu as well.
Once those players are dealt, the White Sox will begin to take shape. Kopech will come up and lead the pitching staff. Moncada will emerge as a star, and Eloy Jimenez will make an impact as well. Look for the team to win a lot of games in the second half, following the trade deadline.
This is where things get interesting.
Is Rick Renteria the right man to lead this team? His personality type seems far better suited to that of a bench coach than a manager.
After a strong finish to the 2018 season, there will be great optimism on the south side of Chicago heading into 2019. If the team struggles that year, what will the front office do? Will they do what needs to be done, and kick Renteria to the curb? Or will they keep him around for too long like they did with Robin Ventura, wasting year after year in which the team could be competitive.
Leadership matters. Coaching matters.
Perhaps the team could win a division title or two with Renteria at the helm, but I doubt it.
A World Series title? Please. Not going to happen.
If Rick Hahn is too nice to fire a manager who needs to be fired, then ownership should replace him with someone who isn’t afraid to hurt feelings.
79 wins, 83 losses for the White Sox.
3. Cleveland Indians – 80-82
The Indians have been so overrated for the last two seasons. No wonder they struggled so badly early last year. No wonder they choked in the ALDS against the New York Yankees.
Something tells me this year just won’t be the year for the Cleveland baseball team.
80 wins, 82 losses for the Indians.
2. Minnesota Twins – 83-79
Why did the Minnesota Twins fire Terry Ryan?
The team had a great year in 2015. They won 83 games.
Then Torii Hunter retired. The team took a huge step back the next year.
Did Ryan deserve to be fired because of that?
Were the Twins successful last season because of Thad Levine? Or, was the framework for the team’s success already established by the prior front office?
It looks like the Minnesota Twins are emblematic of a common phenomenon in baseball the past few years. Old school front office guys like Terry Ryan, Ruben Amaro Jr., Omar Minaya, Doug Melvin, Jack Zduriencik and Ned Colletti have been phased out in favor of the intelligentsia. The former have laid the foundation for the success of the latter. However, when the intelligentsia succeeds, all of the credit is given to them, even when they are wrecking the teams that the old school guys built (looking at you, Andrew Friedman).
This is what has happened with the Minnesota Twins in recent years. Their success last year had nothing to do with Thad Levine. They would have been better off keeping Terry Ryan. Would Ryan have superfluously traded for Jake Odorizzi, when the signing of Lance Lynn would have been more than enough to bolster their rotation? Sometimes less is more.
Would he have signed the overrated Logan Morrison, when a player like Mike Napoli was available? (Napoli would have leaped for a major league contract. It says everything about the state of baseball right now that Napoli couldn’t even get a major league contract this past offseason)
Minor issues like that can be the difference between a team winning a division and finishing in second place.
Will Paul Molitor take the blame when this team struggles?
How will Byron Buxton’s chemistry with Miguel Sano in the lineup be? It isn’t just a coincidence that Buxton took off last year the second that Sano went down with injury (nor is it just a coincidence that Aaron Judge took off last year the second that Gary Sanchez went down with injury early in the year … more on that phenomenon later).
Why didn’t the front office give Brian Dozier an extension this past offseason? He indicated that he would be happy to sign an extension rather than test free agency. Losing him would be terrible for the team’s clubhouse chemistry. That will be a distraction for the team all season long.
Would Ryan have given Dozier the extension before the season began?
Will Jake Odorizzi give the Twins a “too many cooks spoil the broth” problem in their rotation?
If Fernando Rodney struggles, will the front office press Molitor to remove him from the closer role in favor of Addison Reed? Doing so would throw off the bullpen’s hierarchy, badly, and could create major chemistry problems for the entire team.
The Twins had a golden opportunity to win this division this year. They should have stuck with Terry Ryan and the old school guys who used to run this team. Continuity matters.
83 wins, 79 losses for the Twins.
1. Kansas City Royals – 92-70
Speaking of continuity matters.
The Minnesota Twins are a team with a divide. They have an intelligentsia front office and a good old-school manager.
The Kansas City Royals are unified. Dayton Moore and the front office are on the same page as Ned Yost. That counts for a lot.
Everyone was clamoring for the Royals to sell last year at the trade deadline. Good thing they didn’t.
It would have been bad karma for the Royals to sell Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, etc. They gave their guys a chance to win in their last year together.
Continuity matters.
Who knows what would have happened if they had sold?
Perhaps bad vibes from selling those core players would have doomed the Royals for years to come.
Perhaps Jorge Soler wouldn’t have been ready yet to take over the team. He’s ready now.
Soler is poised for an Aaron Judge-like breakout season. Just look at how far he hits the ball. Just listen to the sound off his bat. That’s different. That’s OG.
Jorge Soler is clearly a leader type. He is clearly extremely talented. Exactly what you need to anchor a major league lineup. Soler will do that for the Royals this year. He will single-handedly carry the Royals. One player can turn around a team. Not that the Royals were bad before this season. They have one of the best clubhouse cultures in all of baseball. That counts for a lot. Culture matters.
Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon and Alcides Escobar will carry the torch. They, Lucas Duda, and Jon Jay will compliment Soler nicely. Whit Merrifield will improve on his breakout season (who said the Royals don’t have any prospects?).
Dan “Bury Me a Royal” (gives you goosebumps, doesn’t it?) Duffy will anchor a solid pitching staff.
Bullpen chemistry could be a problem. Kelvin Herrera should be setting up for Brandon Maurer, not vice-versa. Still, look for a team as well-run as the Royals to sort that out.
Besides, with Jorge Soler hitting the ball 600 feet, how many save situations will there be?
92 wins, 70 losses for the Royals.
Individual Predictions, etc.:
- Miguel Cabrera’s batting average will be at least .280, his OBP will be at least .375 and his slugging percentage will be at least .500. He will finish the season with at least 30 home runs.
- Jordan Zimmermann’s ERA will be no higher than 3.60 when he is traded at the trade deadline.
- James Shields’s ERA will be no higher than 4.00 when he is traded at the trade deadline.
- Lucas Giolito’s ERA will be no lower than 4.50 when James Shields is traded at the trade deadline. His ERA will be no higher than 2.50 from that point in the season.
- Yoan Moncada’s batting average will be no higher than .250, his OBP will be no higher than .325 and his slugging percentage will be no higher than .380 when Jose Abreu is traded at the trade deadline. Following Abreu’s trade, Moncada’s batting average will be no lower than .300, his OBP will be no lower than .375, and his slugging percentage will be no lower than .475. He will finish the season with at least 24 home runs.
- Corey Kluber’s ERA will be no lower than 3.50. He will win no more than 10 games.
- Trevor Bauer’s ERA will be no higher than 3.40.
- Josh Tomlin’s ERA will be no lower than 5.00.
- Byron Buxton’s batting average will be no higher than .270, his OBP will be no higher than .325, his slugging percentage will be no higher than .400. He will hit no more than 16 home runs.
- Miguel Sano’s batting average will be no lower than .275, his OBP will be no lower than .375, his slugging percentage will be no lower than .525, and he will hit no fewer than 32 home runs.
- Jorge Soler’s batting average will be at least .300, his slugging percentage will be no lower than .600, he will hit at least 40 home runs, and he will have at least 100 RBIs.
- Salvador Perez’s batting average will be no lower than .290, his OBP will be no lower than .320, and his slugging percentage will be no lower than .525. He will hit at least 30 home runs.
- Mike Moustakas’s batting average will be no lower than .275, his slugging percentage will be no lower than .500 and he will hit at least 30 home runs.
- Kelvin Herrera will struggle as a closer. Brandon Maurer will replace him. Herrera will pitch well setting up for him.
Flow of the Season
The Indians and Royals will both get off to very good starts. The Twins will be mediocre. The White Sox and Tigers will both get off to bad starts. The White Sox will play well late in the season after trading Shields and Abreu. The Tigers will lose many games, all year.
In late May, the Indians will precipitously collapse. Their high point on the season will be 12 games over .500. By July 4th they will be below .500. They will stabilize and avoid becoming sellers, but they will never be more than 4 games over .500 the rest of the season.
The Royals will lead the division by 10 games over the Indians and Twins by July 4th. They will win the division going away.
SABR Skeptic 