AL East Predictions 2018

5.  Tampa Bay Rays – 67-95

The Rays are rebuilding.  Ok.  That’s long overdue.

Joe Maddon is long gone.  So is David Price.  Now, Evan Longoria is out as well.

Who’s Andrew Friedman?

What’s left?

Not much.

Wilson Ramos could be traded at the deadline, as could Alex Colome.  So could Chris Archer.

Buyer Beware on Archer, though.

Chris Archer is a walking argument for the importance of the win-loss record.

Situation matters.

Whatever lead Archer is given by his teams, he finds a way to blow it.

Weak.

How many one or two run leads has Archer surrendered late in starts in recent years?

Many.

His high loss totals are not a fluke.  I don’t care how many strikeouts Archer compiles early in games when his team is losing.  I care about how he pitches when his team needs him to win games.  He isn’t very good at that.

Weak.

Does Archer have the personality type that you need your ace starting pitcher to have?

No.  He doesn’t.

Any team thinking about acquiring him at the trade deadline should keep that in mind.  Archer would thrive in a number 2 role.  That’s his role.  If you are looking for a pitcher to lead your pitching staff, Chris Archer is not who you want.  Only trade for Archer if you already have an established ace.  Archer is not an ace, and never will be.

The Rays are long overdue for a rebuild.  They will finish last.

Weak.

67 wins, 95 losses for the Rays.

 

4.  Toronto Blue Jays – 77-85

Mark Shapiro isn’t making many friends in Canada, is he?

Why did the Blue Jays take off in 2015?  The conventional wisdom, as usual, was wrong.

The Blue Jays had a great offense before David Price arrived.  The team didn’t win many games.  When David Price, OG, walked in the door, the team totally took off, and won their first division title in a long time.

One man can turn around a team.

The Blue Jays took a step back in 2016 without him.  Go figure.

Then, after losing Edwin Encarnacion in free agency prior to last season, they took another step back last year.

Now that Jose Bautista is gone, this is Josh Donaldson’s team.

How will he fare?

There’s no question that he is a talented player.  But is he a leader?

Dubious.

It’s his last year before free agency.  That puts a lot of pressure on the team to win this year.

They have another extremely talented player, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., ready to take over the team when Donaldson departs.  And they have other good prospects in Anthony Alford and Bo Bichette who can make an impact soon.

How good will this team be, with Donaldson leading the way in his free agent walk year?

All signs point to this team being sellers at the trade deadline.

No question, the Blue Jays fans will riot.  But, it is clearly in this team’s best interest to trade Josh Donaldson.  They have other salable assets on the team, including Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, Curtis Granderson, Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ.  A major sell-off this year could net the team a ton of good prospects.

They should keep Russell Martin.  He’s an integral part of the team’s chemistry.

They should keep Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez.  Roberto Osuna as well.  Everyone else should be available at the deadline.

Look for the team to struggle, and to sell.  Shapiro will not be swayed by the lamentations of the Toronto fans.  He knows what’s best for this team.

Look for Guerrero Jr. to come up and make a big impact after the trades.  He looks legit.

With he and John Gibbons leading the way, this team will lead the league in BMI.  But not much else.

77 wins, 85 losses for the Blue Jays.

 

3.  New York Yankees – 85-77

Where to begin?

Goose Gossage was right about Brian Cashman.  He has long overstayed his welcome in New York.

Not bringing back Joe Girardi was a huge mistake.

The Yankees rallied to save his job after falling behind in the ALDS 0-2 to the Indians.  And what did Cashman do?  Fire him anyway.  WTF.

If that wasn’t bad enough, he replaced Girardi with Aaron Boone.  Oh boy.  Talk about a guy who doesn’t have the requisite personality type for a manager.

It seems that Cashman was more interested in having a manager that he can push around, than the manager that was best for the team.

While everyone has been going goo-goo-ga-ga over the Yankees’s acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton, they have failed to recognize the potential for major chemistry issues on the team.

The Yankees already had Aaron Judge.  They didn’t need another Aaron Judge.  If Judge struggles this year, what will the rabid New York mob say?

“Trade him.  We don’t need him.  We have Stanton now.”  That puts a ton of pressure on Judge’s shoulders.

Trading for Stanton was the most unnecessary move, perhaps, in the history of Major League Baseball.  Talk about a subtraction by addition.

Did the Yankees need another outfielder?  Judge, Hicks, Gardner, Ellsbury, and Frazier weren’t enough?  What a joke.  “Too many cooks spoil the broth” doesn’t even begin to describe this disaster.

Analytics Disaster.  Intelligentsia Fail.

They would have been far better served re-signing Todd Frazier.  He and Matt Holliday had a huge positive impact on the team’s chemistry last year.  Now, they’re both gone.

Brett Gardner is the clubhouse leader, a major “glue-guy” on the team.  He’ll be a free agent after the season.  That will be a major distraction for the team all year.  They should have given him an extension long ago.

Luis Severino is not the ace of this team.  Yet the Yankees will start him on opening day.  That should go about as well as his start in the Wild Card game did last year.  It will throw off the team’s vibe from the word “go.”

Dellin Betances is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball.  He needs to be a closer.  The Yankees didn’t need to re-acquire Aroldis Chapman in the first place, nor did they need to acquire David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle at the trade deadline last year.  Again, “too many cooks spoil the broth.”

Betances will struggle outside of the closer’s role.  Trade him, or make him the closer.  So long as he is in the bullpen, the vibe will be off.

Chemistry problems everywhere you look.

As if all this weren’t enough, guess who the Yankees hired to serve in a front office role?  Big mistake.

Karma matters.  Truth matters.

85 wins, 77 losses for the Yankees.

 

2.  Baltimore Orioles – 89-73

Buck Showalter is one of the best managers in baseball.

The Orioles success in recent years is owed in large measure to his leadership.

The intelligentsia feeding frenzy following the 2016 AL Wild Card game was a spectacle to behold.

Here’s a sample of the headlines following the game:

CBS Sports: “Why Buck Showalter Made the Supidest Managerial Decision I’ve Ever Seen.”

ESPN: “Buck Showalter’s Epic Failure Costs Orioles.”

more ESPN: “When Buck Showalter Should Have Used Zach Britton in Orioles’s Wild Card Loss.”

Yahoo Sports: “The Colossal, Inexplicable Mistake of Buck Showalter.”

 

We know best!

Why do they hate Buck Showalter so much?

Buck Showalter is the big dog in Baltimore.  Not Zach Britton.  Not anybody else.  OG.

Addition by subtraction doesn’t even begin to describe the effect that Britton being out early this year will have on the Orioles.

According to the intelligentsia, the Orioles are good because of Zach Britton.  We’ll see.

Adam Jones is a great leader, and an extremely talented player.  The same can be said for Manny Machado.  Chris Davis’s nickname is “Crush.”  And Mark Trumbo hits “Trumbombs” all day.  This lineup is good.

The rotation is good too.  Dylan Bundy has turned into a bonafide ace.  Andrew Cashner and Alex Cobb were good pickups.  And Chris Tillman is a major bounce-back candidate.

Who cares about the bullpen?  Bullpen is overrated.

Manager is underrated.

89 wins, 73 losses for the Orioles.

 

1.  Boston Red Sox – 92-70

New England is awash in bad karma.  Firing John Farrell helps.

Dave Dombrowski is one of the few old school baseball guys still running a team.  He’s done a good job for the Red Sox so far, and will continue to do so.

Alex Cora was a good hire.  He clearly was a major part of Houston’s success last season.

There are problems with the Red Sox, though.

They are without their leader, Dustin Pedroia, for the first two months of the season.

While J.D. Martinez will help, the lineup just isn’t the same without David Ortiz.  No wonder Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez’s power numbers declined as they did last year without Ortiz there to protect them.

The rotation’s hierarchy is in a state of confusion.  David Price is the unambiguous ace of the Boston Red Sox.  Rick Porcello and Chris Sale are number 2 types.  Porcello was exposed last year without Price there.  Sale fades down the stretch every year, and he has poor character.  Not ace material.  If Price hadn’t returned to save the day last year, the Red Sox might have lost the division, and not even made it to the ALDS.  It says it all that Price was the only Red Sox pitcher last year in the playoffs who could get batters out.

Price should be starting on opening day.  Instead, the overrated Sale will.  Big mistake.  That will throw off the Red Sox vibe from the word “go.”

Still, the Red Sox have a lot going for them.  They will be able to overcome whatever issues they have, and win the division for the third year in a row.

92 wins, 70 losses for the Red Sox.

 

Individual Predictions, etc.:

1.  Chris Archer’s ERA will be no higher than 4.00 when he is traded at the trade deadline.  He will be ranked among the top 5 pitchers in the American League in strikeouts.  He will, however, have more losses than wins.
2. Seung-Hwan Oh will be the closer for the Blue Jays by Memorial Day.
3. Aaron Judge’s batting average will be no higher than .250, his OBP will be no higher than .340, and his slugging percentage will be no higher than .470.  He will hit no more than 30 home runs.
4. Giancarlo Stanton’s batting average will be no higher than .250, his OBP will be no higher than .340, his slugging percentage will be no higher than .520, and he will hit no more than 32 home runs.
5. Gary Sanchez’s batting average will be no lower than .300, his OBP will be no lower than .380, his slugging percentage will be no lower than .580, and he will hit no fewer than 37 home runs.
6. Luis Severino’s ERA will be no lower than 4.00 and he will win no more than 9 games.
7. Jordan Montgomery’s ERA will be no lower than 5.00, and he will make no more than 12 starts.
8. Dellin Betances will struggle badly outside of the closer role.  In the closer role he will thrive.
9. Dylan Bundy’s ERA will be no lower than 3.75.  He will win at least 16 games.
10. Mookie Betts’ batting average will be no lower than .275, his slugging percentage will be no lower than .490, and he will hit no fewer than 27 home runs.
11. Hanley Ramirez’s batting average will be no lower than .270, his OBP will be no lower than .340, and his slugging percentage will be no lower than .475.  He will hit no fewer than 28 home runs.
12. Chris Sale’s ERA will be no lower than 4.00.  He will win no more than 11 games.
13. Rick Porcello’s ERA will be no higher than 3.80.
14. David Price’s ERA will be no higher than 2.75.  He will win at least 20 games.

 

Flow of the Season

The Orioles will get off to an excellent start.  The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays will all be mediocre early.  The Rays will be bad.

The Orioles will lead the division over the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays by 8 games on Memorial Day.

When Zach Britton returns, the Orioles will slip.  The Red Sox will start to play better when Pedroia returns, and the Yankees will start to play better around this time as well.  The Blue Jays will fade, and be six games under .500 by the All-Star Break.  They will sell at the trade deadline.

The Red Sox and Yankees will catch the Orioles by then.  The intelligentsia will clamor for the Orioles to sell.  They will stand pat.  The Red Sox will add a bat.  The Yankees will add a starting pitcher.  It will be a three team race down the stretch.

The Yankees will get swept by the Orioles at Camden Yards the weekend of August 24th.  They will lose five out of six games to the Red Sox and Orioles at Yankee Stadium from September 18th to September 23rd.  They will miss the playoffs.

The Orioles will not win the division, but will make the playoffs as the second Wild Card team.  The Red Sox will win the division.

Will the Yankees ownership get wise to the problem, and kick Cashman and Boone to the curb?  No matter who the Yankees add in free agency prior to 2019, it won’t paper over the team’s systemic flaws.  Cashman and Boone have got to go.