5. Atlanta Braves – 71-91
The Braves made a huge mistake trading away Matt Kemp.
Kemp is the most underrated player in baseball. Two things matter for position players. One is slugging. The other is personality type. Matt Kemp crushes the ball, and he is an unambiguous alpha male.
When the Braves traded for Kemp in 2016, they took off. Freddie Freeman is a decent player. Kemp is next level. His arrival provided ample protection for Freeman, and took his game to the next level.
Matt Kemp doesn’t need to worry about being a super-defender or a super-baserunner. All he needs to do is slug. And be himself. His self is OG. So he’ll do well at that.
The Braves could have been a perennial contender with a leader like Kemp. They should have been scrambling to offer him a contract extension. Instead, they traded him. Big mistake.
Ronald Acuna looks like he will be a good player. The only problem is that he isn’t Matt Kemp. Why couldn’t the Braves have had Acuna, Freeman and Kemp? That would have been a good core for them going forward, with Kemp leading the way.
No matter how good Acuna’s numbers are, it doesn’t matter. He could have better numbers than Kemp. He still wouldn’t be Matt Kemp.
Trading away Matt Kemp as the Braves did this past offseason is the equivalent of finding a beautiful diamond in the mud on a rainy day, and then throwing it into the sewer.
Who is the genius in the Braves front office who said that that would be a good idea? Fire Him.
This team could have won this division this year. They at least could have competed for a Wild Card spot. As such, they will be terrible. Just terrible.
71 wins, 91 losses for the Braves.
4. Philadelphia Phillies – 73-89
Innovative. Revolutionary. Wow. Super Awesome.
That’s how the intelligentsia describes Gabe Kapler, the new manager of the Phillies.
Boring. Total Conformity. More of the Same.
That’s more like it.
The Phillies were trending in the right direction. Are they still?
Rhys Hoskins is a first baseman. He is a great power hitter. The last thing he needs is to be distracted by a position change. If he were moved from his position because, say, Miguel Cabrera was taking over at first, that would be one thing. But Carlos Santana? Meh.
Santana was a bad signing. He is highly overrated. On base percentage is highly overrated.
He is highly overpaid, too. A lot is expected of him. That puts a lot of pressure on him. Look for him to struggle to meet those high expectations.
Hoskins was already due for a sophmore slump. Being bumped from his position by Carlos Santana won’t help.
Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera and Scott Kingery are all good young pieces for this team going forward. Jorge Alfaro looks legit. But the Santana signing throws off the whole team. And the intelligentsia tells us that it’s the old school guys that give out bad contracts. This is coming from the people who gave us the Jason Heyward contract, the Kevin Kiermaier contract and the Jean Segura contract. How sophisticated!
The Phillies should have invested the money they gave to Santana elsewhere. He’s a bad fit for this team. This team could have been a lot better this year.
Jake Arrieta is obviously legit. He is underpaid. He will be highly motivated to prove just that. He should perform well on an individual basis. But how will the chemistry be with he and Aaron Nola? Arrieta joining the rotation a week and a half into the season will be awkward, to be sure.
Gabe Kapler has plenty of brilliant ideas. How will those ideas work, in practice? That’s another question entirely.
75 wins, 87 losses for the Phillies.
3. Washington Nationals – 78-84
The Nationals looked poised to finally take the next step this year. But firing Dusty Baker was a huge mistake. The Nationals didn’t fail to reach the NLCS last year because of a lack of analytic-based decision making from their manager. They failed to reach the NLCS because they clinched their division 27 days before playing their first playoff game. Doing so can make even the best lineups look flat. That’s exactly how the Nationals looked in the NLDS last year. No wonder so few 100 win teams ever win the World Series. How to keep players in rhythm after clinching a division berth or a series win early? That’s a question for another day.
Baker established a great clubhouse culture with the Nationals. Two straight 90 + win seasons and division titles speak to that. Dave Martinez could very well have a good career ahead of him as a manager. But this year’s Nationals team is not a team he should be managing. The vibe is off.
Bryce Harper’s impending free agency is a huge distraction for this team. Harper is also tempting The Baseball Gods by not accepting a contract extension from the Nationals. He dodged a major bullet last year. Last offseason may have been the time to accept a contract extension. Whatever happens, there is a lot of pressure on the team to win now, in what could be his last season with the team.
Stephen Strasburg will again lead a very good pitching staff. The overrated Max Scherzer will continue to dazzle the intelligentsia with his super awesome stats. They robbed Kyle Hendricks in 2016 and Clayton Kershaw last year to give Scherzer the Cy Young. Three in a row?
The Nationals should have stuck with Dusty Baker for at least one more season. Firing him was a huge disruption to their continuity. Look for the team to struggle this year without him.
78 wins, 84 losses for the Nationals.
2. Miami Marlins – 85-77
Jose Fernandez’s death had a major impact on the Marlins franchise. He was irreplaceable on the team. No one pitcher could fill that void. Those who were saying that the Marlins just needed to sign another pitcher this past offseason in order to contend again were wrong.
It made perfect sense for the Marlins’ new leadership to trade the players they did, and start over.
The Marlins have a lot going for them.
They have one of the best managers in baseball, Don Mattingly. He and Derek Jeter bring the Yankees unparalleled culture to Miami. Success follows wherever that culture goes.
Martin Prado is an excellent leader for this team.
The team has a ton of good players on it. The Marlins acquired a very good player in the Stanton trade, Starlin Castro. Look for him to be highly motivated after being traded yet again. He will have a career year. J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour and Derek Dietrich are still around. Cameron Maybin was a good veteran signing.
Derek Jeter fleeced David Stearns in the Christian Yelich trade. Luis Brinson should be a major contributor this year. The other prospects the team acquired this past offseason could very well contribute, soon.
Jose Urena had a great, under-the-radar season last year. 14-7. Nothing to scoff at. Odrisamer Despaigne has shown flashes of brilliance. And Dan Straily has been a servicable starter for years.
Kyle Barraclough has closer stuff.
So, the Marlins have talent on their roster. Plus, they have a ton of good karma. Everyone says they will finish last. That they have no chance. That they made a huge mistake trading the outfielders. Even rival superstars from their own division are weighing in (look for the Marlins to play very well this year head-to-head against the Nationals. Bad karma, Bryce).
Say whatever you want about the Marlins. Critique the trades as much as you want. Those moves were not nearly as bad as the Braves trading Matt Kemp, the Phillies signing Carlos Santana, or the Nationals firing Dusty Baker.
The Marlins will finish ahead of all three of those teams. They will be the last team eliminated from postseason contention in the National League, on the final Saturday of the regular season.
They will be in a good position to, if their finances will allow it, be players in free agency next offseason. They are nowhere near as far from contention as conventional wisdom would have it.
85 wins, 77 losses for the Marlins.
1. New York Mets – 94-68
The New York Mets are not a well constructed team.
The Mets are a team whose recent success has been based on one thing, and one thing alone: stolen chemistry.
Here’s what I mean.
When the Oakland Athletics collapsed following the trade of Yoenis Cespedes in 2014, their offense in particular struggled.
When the Mets acquired Cespedes a year later, his addition had the exact opposite effect on the Mets offense. A team that could barely score one run became a juggernaut the second Cespedes walked in the door. He single-handedly turned that team around. What the Athletics lost, the Mets gained. That’s stolen chemistry.
But the Mets are not a well constructed team. Sandy Alderson is not a good general manager. Omar Minaya laid the foundation for this team’s success.
If not for the Cespedes trade, the Mets would have been nothing the past few seasons.
It carried them all the way to the World Series in 2015. But, it could only do so much for them in 2016 and 2017.
Conventional wisdom has it that the Mets’s success or failure hinges on health, particularly that of the starting pitching.
Wrong.
The Mets could lose 4/5 of their vaunted five young pitchers. If they have either Harvey or Degrom, they would be ok, even if the only pitchers behind them are Vargas, Lugo, Gsellman and Montero. One ace pitcher can carry a rotation. And Matt Harvey will have a huge bounce back season. He has good karma from his decision to pitch through his innings limit in 2015. Look for that good karma to pay off this year.
The Mets are a deep team offensively. They could lose Yoenis Cespedes to injury for a prolonged period of time and still win 93 games. Conforto and Bruce as well. So long as Gonzalez and Frazier are healthy, this Mets team can go places.
Juerys Familia could get hurt and miss the whole season. The Mets would have A.J. Ramos to fill in and close games.
In other words, the Mets could withstand a ton of injuries this season, just as they did in 2015 when they made it all the way to the World Series. Again, the conventional wisdom is often wrong.
The Mets will feed off of stolen chemistry yet again this season.
Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Frazier were integral components to their teams’ chemistry. Both were kicked to the curb by the intelligentsia. The Mets happened into both. Both will bring a piece of their former teams’ chemistry to the Mets. While the Dodgers and Yankees struggle, the Mets will take off with Gonzalez and Frazier. For this year at least, the Mets will feed off of the Yankees’s misery. A role reversal, to be sure.
How far can stolen chemistry take a team?
A division title, to be sure. Winning the championship? Unlikely. Gonzalez and Frazier are mere band-aids. Look for the Mets to return to their miserable ways again in 2019. But, for this year at least, the team from Queens will be Kings of New York.
94 wins, 68 losses.
Individual Predictions, etc.:
- Freddie Freeman’s batting average will be no higher than .265, his OBP will be no higher than .340, and his slugging percentage will be no higher than .440. He will hit no more than 20 home runs.
- Rhys Hoskins’s batting average will be no higher than .250, his slugging percentage will be no higher than .475, and he will hit no more than 26 home runs.
- J.P. Crawford will be a huge bust. That’s what happens when you overrate a player based on defense. They won’t hit. He won’t hit.
- Carlos Santana’s batting average will be no higher than .240, his OBP will be no higher than .320, his slugging percentage will be no higher than .400, and he will hit no more than 20 home runs.
- Aaron Nola’s ERA will be no lower than 4.00. He will win no more than 9 games.
- Starlin Castro’s batting average will be no lower than .300, his OBP will be no lower than .340, his slugging percentage will be no lower than .480, and he will hit no fewer than 24 home runs.
- Kyle Barraclough will save 30 games.
- Jose Urena’s ERA will be no higher than 4.00. He will win at least 16 games, and he will throw at least 180 innings.
- Adrian Gonzalez’s batting average will be no lower than .280, his OBP will be no lower than .340, and his slugging percentage will be no lower than .460. He will hit no fewer than 24 home runs.
- Todd Frazier’s OBP will be at least .360, his slugging percentage will be at least .460, and he will hit no fewer than 32 home runs.
- Matt Harvey’s ERA will be no higher than 3.00. He will win no fewer than 18 games, and he will throw at least 200 innings.
Flow of the Season
The Braves and Phillies will both get off to bad starts. The Nationals will be mediocre early. The Marlins will be around .500 through Memorial Day. The Mets will be far and away the best team in the division through Memorial Day, despite injuries. They will lead the division by 8 games over the Marlins and Nationals at that point.
The Nationals will struggle all year, and will hover around .500. Bryce Harper’s impending free agency will be a cloud over the team all year. They will fade late in the season, and will not even be in the mix for a playoff spot.
The Marlins will not go away. They will be in a position to add at the trade deadline, and will do so. Nothing major, but pieces that will help them stay in contention. They will fall just short of the playoffs, but will be positioned well heading into 2019.
The Mets will win the division going away.
SABR Skeptic 