The intelligentsia has made a habit of botching the awards every year in recent memory.
Yoenis Cespedes should have won National League MVP in 2015. Bryce Harper was given the award instead, despite his noted character flaws.
Adrian Beltre should have won American League MVP in 2016. The intelligentsia gave Mike Trout the award instead (again, “best all-around player” does not equal “best player).
Anthony Rizzo should have won National League MVP in 2016. The intelligentsia gave it to Kris Bryant (see above r.e. “best all-around player” vs. “best player”). Leadership, hierarchy, order, and structure are all lost on the intelligentsia.
Justin Verlander should have won American League Cy Young in 2016. The intelligentsia gave it to Rick Porcello instead, despite the fact that Porcello was protected by David Price. See above, r.e. leadership, hierarchy, order, and structure.
Kyle Hendricks should have won National League Cy Young in 2016. ERA matters. The intelligentsia gave it to Max Scherzer instead.
Dusty Baker should have won National League Manager of the Year in 2016. The intelligentsia gave it to Dave Roberts instead.
Aaron Judge should have won American League MVP last year. The intelligentsia gave it to Jose Altuve instead. Altuve is a heartwarming story, to be sure, but Aaron Judge hits the ball 600 feet. That’s MVP. That’s OG.
Clayton Kershaw should have won National League Cy Young last year. The intelligentsia gave it to Scherzer, stupidly, for the second year in a row. Facepalm. He’s overrated.
With that said, the best way to approach award season predictions is this: should win vs. will win.
American League MVP
Should win: Jorge Soler
Look for Soler to single-handedly carry the Royals back to the division title. Look for him to hit a ton of home runs. As Harold Reynolds said in 2016 on MLB Tonight, when Mike Trout was being bandied about again as an MVP candidate, “Since when do you get the MVP award for on-base percentage? I thought you were supposed to get the MVP award for doing damage.” Soler will do a ton of damage for the Royals this year.
Will win: Manny Machado
Don’t get me wrong. I like Machado’s game, a lot. But as I’ve said, “best all-around player” does not equal “best player.” While Machado is a very talented player with clear leadership qualities, he isn’t the kind of transformative talent that a Jorge Soler is. I don’t care about defense, or baserunning, or arm strength. I don’t care about on-base percentage. Hitting for average? Yeah, I guess. It’s all about slugging. No one will slug like Soler this year.
National League MVP
Should win: Eric Hosmer
Hosmer will single-handedly carry the Padres to the division title. He isn’t the most talented player in the game of baseball. But, he is one of the best leaders in all of baseball. His clubhouse influence, and lineup presence count for a lot. Plus, he is pretty talented. A .318 batting average, .385 on-base percentage, .498 slugging percentage, 25 home runs, and 94 RBIs is nothing to scoff at. He’s legit. The intelligentsia isn’t.
Will win: Brad Hand
If the intelligentsia would say Andrelton Simmons is an MVP candidate last season in order to avoid acknowledging that a) The Big Kahuna a.k.a. Mike Scioscia is legit, b) Mike Trout is overrated, and c) wins-above replacement is utterly useless, then why not give the MVP award to Brad Hand in order to avoid acknowledging that Eric Hosmer is OG and they aren’t.
American League Cy Young
Should win: David Price
Is there a more unambiguous ace pitcher in all of baseball than David Price with the Red Sox? No. Yet the intelligentsia all says Sale is the ace. Go figure.
Look for Price to have a huge year this year. He will assert himself as the top dog in the Red Sox rotation. And he will lead the team to its third division title in as many years. As I said in my AL East predictions Price will win 20 games. Cy young caliber. OG.
Will win: Gerrit Cole
Cole is a sure thing to “bounce-back” this year with the Astros, if by “bounce-back” you mean that his individual statistics will improve. They will. This will have nothing to do with pitch selection, quadrants, spin rate, blah blah blah blah blah. Nothing. It will have everything to do with the fact that Cole will be protected by Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel.
Cole is a number 2 type. A beta male. He was in a number 1 role with the Pirates. An aplha male role. A leader role. He was exposed, badly, in the NL Wild Card game in 2015. Somebody get this man a loincloth, quick.
He is now in his proper role. He has his loincloth, Keuchel and Verlander. He will thrive in that role.
People need to be in their proper roles in order to thrive.
The intelligentsia will hail his super-awesome season.
Whack recognize whack.
Congratulations, Gerrit.
National League Cy Young
Should win: Matt Harvey
Harvey has a ton of good karma. He didn’t need to pitch in the playoffs in 2015. He could have sat back and fantasized about the hundreds of millions of dollars that awaited him upon free agency. Instead, he pitched. Dude has balls. Straight up.
He has been ineffective and injury-prone the last two seasons. Is this because he pitched in the playoffs in 2015? Who knows.
What we can say for sure is this. Harvey will be highly motivated this season. A big pay day is still within reach. Look for him to go out and dominate. The Dark Knight Rises.
Will win: Max Scherzer
Why not.
AL Manager of the Year
Should win: Buck Showalter
The Orioles have a ton of talent on their team. Still, without Buck Showalter, who knows if it would add up to wins?
Look for Buck to prove a lot of people wrong this year.
Will win: Scott Servais
“All he does is say ‘Jerry said. Jerry said,’ over and over and over again. How innovative!”
NL Manager of the Year
Should win: Andy Green
After watching this video, how could the intelligentsia not pick the Pirates and Padres to make the playoffs? Coaching matters. “Fire-up-the-troops” matters. Leadership matters. Andy Green Matters.
Will win: Gabe Kapler
Duh.
AL Executive of the Year
Should win: Dan Duquette
The pressure on Duquette to sell at the deadline will be enormous. Withstanding that kind of pressure will pay off in a big way this year.
Will win: Billy Beane
“All he does is sit in a dark room full of green smoke wearing this, seething with rage as he watches Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Donaldson, Ryon Healy, Sonny Gray and Stephen Vogt highlights.
‘My subjects will never love any of them more than they love me! I’ll banish them all! I’ll even banish you Jed Lowrie, if I have to! Brad Pitt played me in my movie! Who played you in your movie, Josh Donaldson?’ All day he does this.
He is the Mad King of Oakland. All hail the Mad King of Oakland.”
NL Executive of the Year
Should win: Neal Huntington
The Pirates will be about .500 at the All-Star break. They will be under an enormous amount of pressure to sell. Huntington will withstand that pressure, and the Pirates will be better off for it.
Will win: Andrew Friedman
“But, but, but … they were supposed to be good! PECOTA said they’d be good!”
SABR Skeptic 