The next time you’re watching a Seattle Mariners game, do yourself a favor. Take one look at Scott Servais’s face. What’s wrong with this picture? Is that the face of a man who should be leading a Major League Baseball team? You tell me.
Then, the next time you’re watching a Texas Rangers game, do yourself a favor. Take one look at Jeff Bannister’s face. Good God, that guy is cool.
How about Mike Scioscia’s face? Cool, calm, collected. A man who is in charge. The Big Kahuna.
Scott Servais? Just call him Jerry Said.
You can tell a lot just from looking at someone’s face.
Al Leiter of MLB Network pointed that out once on MLB Tonight. “Look at his eyes” he said about Jay Bruce, late in 2016 after he was traded to the New York Mets from the Cinncinati Reds. He was struggling, badly. Was it the Bright Lights in the Big Apple?
If you were to put on MLB Now at this time – which I wouldn’t. Good God that show is awful – I’m sure the geniuses would have been looking to his stats. The tangibles.
Whack. Who cares. Al Leiter pointed out all you need to know. “Look at his eyes.” Was that fear there? Psychology matters.
Do you need to look at stats to know that Lebron James is the best player in basketball? Just go watch him play. Do you need to look at stats to know that Alexander Ovechkin is the best player in hockey? Just look at that guy’s eyes. No fear there.
Do you need analytics to scout for talent?
Dan Plesac of MLB Network called it about Dan Duffy. Back in the day, when Duffy was first starting out, Plesac was like “that dude looks legit.”
Look at Dan Duffy now. That is a Legit Dude.
On a Legit Team. Ok, the Royals started out the season 0-3. I picked them to win the AL Central. We’ll see what happens. I’m not concerned. Can Jorge Soler still do this?
See, you don’t need stats to see that Jorge Soler is a Legit Dude. Just go watch him play. He hits the ball really really hard and when he does the ball travels very very far. Do I need to know the exact velocity at which the ball was hit? Do I need to know the exact angle at which the ball was “launched?” No, I don’t.
Plus, there’s this. Soler just has “The Look.” What is “The Look?” I don’t know exactly what it is. But he has it. So does Marvin Bagley III. So does Sam Darnold. If they don’t both get picked first then someone made a mistake.
Oh and what’s this? I just Googled Jorge Soler. And what do I see? This. RBIs matter. So do wins. Good job Kansas City.
I picked the Royals to win the AL Central.
How about the intelligentsia’s predictions?
They just look at the numbers.
Whack.
How about momentum? How about flow? The flow of time. No man steps in the same river twice.
There’s a song by The Disco Biscuits. They are a Legit Band. The song is called “Floes.” They played it at Camp Bisco in 2009. Legendary night.
The Disco Biscuits are from Philadelphia. Their baseball team is called the Phillies. Gabe Kapler is their manager. LOL. Too bad for them.
If you were to go to PECOTA and ask them what they think is going to happen in any given series in a baseball season, presumably they would look at the numbers. Would they tell you how each team has been playing lately? Or would they just aggregate the collective statistics of each team, as if the time in which the series is being played is irrelevant. As though every moment is the same.
The 2014 Kansas City Royals were a classic Team of Momentum. The team wasn’t very good in the first half that season. They were 48-46. But, in the second half, they took off. Was it really the team meeting that Raul Ibanez called that got them going? I don’t know. Maybe it was. Whatever it was, they were 41-27 in the second half and surged into the Postseason as the first Wild Card team.
Maybe the collapse of the Billy Beane Athletics following the trade of Yoenis Cespedes gave the Royals confidence and momentum. Energy. As the analytics-inclined A’s collapsed without Cespedes, the old school, “chemistry matters” Royals surged. Was there a correlation?
They beat the A’s in the Wild Card game. This happened. 100 % Cespedes catches that ball. Yoenis Cespedes is a Legit Dude. I don’t care what Sam Fuld’s DRS is or his UZR. He isn’t a Legit Dude.
By the way, have I ever mentioned that Eric Hosmer is a Legit Dude? That’s why the San Diego Padres will win the NL West this year.
You don’t believe me that Cespedes would’ve caught that ball? Still clinging to the absurd idea that Billy Beane is legit? Watch this. That’s Opening Day the next season.
100 % Cespedes catches that ball in the Wild Card Game. Mic drop.
By the way, have I ever mentioned that David Price is a Legit Dude? That’s why the Boston Red Sox will win the AL East this year.
Odds Shark’s computer model said the Angels would win Game 1 against the Royals in the ALDS. They missed that the Kansas City Royals had just stolen all of the confidence, momentum, energy, vibes, mojo, karma, awesomeness, etc. that the A’s had built from the moment Cespedes walked in the door, AND they missed that the Angels had clinched the division well early (they didn’t have much competition after Billy Beane got jealous of all the attention Yoenis Cespedes was getting from the fans and traded him) and had lost their momentum. The same thing happened to the Rockies in 2007, and to the Nationals last year.
Momentum matters. Situation matters. The flow of time matters.
Statistics don’t.
Odds Shark’s computer model said that the Orioles would win Game 1 against the Royals, even after the Royals had stolen more energy from The Big Kahuna and the Angels (I bet it was Dipoto’s fault). The Royals won. And guess what? They won the World Series the next year in 2015. They beat the Mets who stole chemistry from the collapsing Billy Beane A’s too! The Mets had beaten the Cubs, whose shortstop was Addison Russell. And the Royals had beaten the Blue Jays, who also stole chemistry from the collapsing Billy Beane A’s! Go figure.
Brian Kenny once said on MLB Tonight that the story of baseball in recent years is the shift.
No, Brian. The story of baseball in recent years is the collapse of the intelligentsia.
SABR Skeptic 