What’s the fourth principle of SABR Skepticism? Hierarchy, order and structure matter.
On June 30, 2016, the Miami Marlins traded for Fernando Rodney. Rodney is one of the best closers in the game of baseball. He had a long track record of success, and was having a terrific season at the time of the trade.
AJ Ramos was their closer at the time. He’s a good closer, but he was the new kid on the block at the time compared to Rodney.
The Marlins were in a competitive situation at the time, hoping to make a playoff push.
What happened?
Don Mattingly is a good manager. A natural leader, he clearly creates a good vibe in the clubhouse in which his players can flourish. The team’s success to that point in the season in his first year as manager speaks to that.
Still, coaching isn’t just about creating an environment in which the players can succeed. Xs and Os are at times a factor.
The Ramos-Rodney situation was one of those times.
See, that was the problem right there. Ramos-Rodney. No no no. That is not right.
Both Ramos and Rodney are Legit Dudes. But who is The Legit Dude between the two of them?
Seniority matters. Pecking order matters. Wearing your cap to the side like a Boss and shooting arrows into the night sky after locking down the Save matters.
Rodney should have been made the Closer. Instead, Mattingly put him in the 8th inning, in a setup role. In a weak role.
A universe where Ramos-Rodney is the order is a universe that is out of harmony. Order matters.
Ramos-Rodney is bad bullpen chemistry. Chemistry matters.
Rodney-Ramos. That’s more like it.
Both pitchers struggled. Badly. Ramos’s ERA was 1.74 at the time of the trade. His ERA would eventually balloon to 3.27, and he would finish the season with a 2.81 ERA. Rodney’s ERA at the time of the trade was 0.31 (like I said, Rodney is a Legit Dude. That’s a Legit ERA. ERA matters, I guess). His ERA would skyrocket to 3.50, and he would finish the season with a 3.44 ERA.
Rodney pitching in the setup role and Ramos pitching in the closer role was a disaster. That’s because the closer role is the role for The Legit Dude. Not just a Legit Dude. The Legit Dude. In the Bullpen.
The trade was a disaster for the team. Their record at the time of the trade was 41-38. They were 68-71 on September 6th and they finished the season three games under .500 at 79-82.
Did pitching Rodney in the setup role with Ramos in the closer role throw off the whole team’s chemistry, causing them to play worse with Rodney than they were before the trade?
Probably, yeah.
Talk to Marlins Man. Talk to any Marlins fan and they’ll tell you that time after time after the trade Rodney or Ramos cost the team the game.
This is chemistry. This is what chemistry is. That bullpen had bad chemistry in it. That bad chemistry spilled over to the whole team. A slight disturbance in The Force (by the way, I haven’t seen the new Star Wars movies, but they look awful. I’ll pass, thanks) anywhere in a given system and that entire system can crumble.
Put it this way. Rodney was the #1 there. Ramos was the #2. The closer role is the role for the #1 and the setup role is the role for the #2. Put a #1 in a #2 spot, and that #1 can struggle, badly. Put a #2 in a #1 spot, and that #2 will struggle badly.
Have you ever heard of Anthony Bennett? The basketball player? He was a consensus 4-6 pick in the NBA Draft in 2013. The Cavaliers took him #1 overall. He struggled, badly. He’s out of the league now. How would his career have been if he was picked 5th?
Everybody said before the 2016 NBA Finals that Stephen Curry was The Best Player in the NBA. They said, “he’s better than Lebron!” People were comparing him to Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan! What happened?
This happened. And then this (hey, look, it’s Marlins Man!) happened. And then the Cavaliers won the NBA Finals in Game 7.
Some might say, “well, the Super Team won in 2015. Curry beat Lebron in 2015.” To which I would respond, “have you ever heard of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love?” Irving and Love were both injured in the 2015 Finals. Go figure that this was The Big Shot in The Big Game in 2016.
Saying “Congratulations Golden State” for winning the 2015 NBA Finals is like saying “Congratulations” to a boxer that just beat an opponent with a broken arm and hip. The accolades and praise that were heaped on Curry in the wake of that series was a spectacle to behold.
The #2 (#2? I’d rank him 4th behind Durant and Westbrook) got put in the #1 spot. Then he crumbled.
The #1 got put in the #2 spot. Then he rose to the top. King James is No Joke.
Curry was exposed badly in that Finals. Who knows what would have happened to the Warriors in 2016-17 if Kevin Durant hadn’t shown up to save the day.
We’ve seen this in Tennis too.
The Tennis People once said that Andy Murray was the #1 Tennis player in the world.
Here’s the thing. Andy Murray RUNS from Sasquatch.
The Tennis People missed that. His reign on the top was short, like leprechauns.
Who is the #1 in the Big 12 in College Basketball?
Maybe it’s the team at the top of the conference standings every single year?
Not so, says the beta males on the selection committee.
All year this year they were saying “Kansas shouldn’t be the #1 team anymore. We don’t want Kansas to be the #1 team anymore. We’re jealous of someone somewhere.”
They wanted Oklahoma, “led” by Super Player Trae Young to be #1 for a while. Then that bubble burst.
Bubble Burst. We say that a lot here at SABR Skeptic.
Young will be a huge bust in the NBA. Just like he was a huge bust in college. His team got bounced in the first round, right?
They wanted Texas Tech to be #1 for a while. There was a Big Game to be played between Texas Tech and Kansas late in the season to decide who would be at the top of the conference standings. Texas Tech didn’t even make it to The Big Game! They fell flat on their face before they even got there!
There wasn’t even a game three days later. Texas Tech wasn’t even there.
Texas Tech made it all the way to The Elite Eight. Congratulations to them.
The Big Dog, Kansas, cut down the nets and went to The Final Four. That’s Legit.
They lost, though, to Villanova, who won The National Championship again. That’s More Legit. Jay Wright was like “Bill Self. Check yourself before you wreck your Bill-Self.” Woah.
And people were saying Xavier is The Top Dog in The Big East. Funny. How’d that work out for them?
People need to be in their proper roles in order to thrive.
How about College Football? I wonder who The Top Dog in College Football is? Hmmm. Tough one.
I’ll give you a hint: Nick Saban is a Legit Dude.
All year, the beta males on the selection committee were like “we’re tired of Alabama being the best. Someone else should be the best now.” What happened at the end of the season?
They weren’t even going to put Alabama in the Playoff. Booger McFarland was like WTF?
The beta males said “Alabama, you are the #4 team.” Who won The National Championship again? You tell me.
You see this in Pro Football too.
Everyone said that Carson Wentz was better than Jared Goff. I guess his QBR was Super Awesome or something.
Have you ever seen Jared Goff? He looks like Prince William. Or Ryan Gosling. Carson Wentz looks like Prince Harry. Enough said.
Go figure, Wentz tore his ACL in The Big Game against The Big Dog.
Thank goodness for Philadelphia, Nick Foles, a Legit Dude, was waiting in the wings to take his place.
If the Eagles were to trade Nick Foles, again, that would go down as one of the biggest mistakes in the history of sports. Carson Wentz will struggle badly enough next season with Foles breathing down his neck. If Foles isn’t there to protect him and take his place again when he falters? Wentz will be so exposed. It will be awful for him.
He shouldn’t be an NFL quarterback, Wentz. The same goes for Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. Kirk Cousins too (sorry Minnesota). Quarterback is a #1 spot. Period. No beta males allowed. NFL quarterback is absolutely not the proper role for a beta male, and people need to be in their proper roles in order to thrive.
That brings us back to baseball.
Dellin Betances is More Legit than Aroldis Chapman. Brandon Maurer is More Legit than Kelvin Herrera. Mychal Givens is More Legit than Brad Brach. Betances, Maurer, and Givens should all be closers on their current teams. All are pitching in a setup role. All three have struggled this season in big spots, as has Brad Brach. And Herrera struggled badly last season closing after the Royals traded for Maurer, just like Ramos did when Rodney was setting up for him. Chapman has been iffy this year too, but he can throw the ball 105 miles per hour so he’ll be ok.
Chapman-Betances and Herrera-Maurer and Brach-Givens just doesn’t feel right to me, just like Ramos-Rodney.
Betances-Chapman, Maurer-Herrera, Givens-Brach, Rodney-Ramos. There you go. That’s better.
Will a bullpen chemistry problem sink the chances of the 2018 Royals and Orioles? I doubt it. Those are good teams. Good teams find a way to overcome these things.
Stay tuned.
SABR Skeptic 