Giannis Antetokounmpo gets high praise. His numbers are off-the-charts good. He does it all. He is averaging 27.1 points, 10 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game this season.
How is his team though? 44-37. Not too bad. But when you consider the adulation that Giannis receives, his team’s performance is pretty underwhelming. Especially when you consider that it’s his fifth season in the league.
Is Giannis a leader?
Donovan Mitchell is. He has single-handedly kept the Utah Jazz afloat after the departure of Gordon Hayward in free agency. His team is 47-33 and he’s just a rookie. That’s Legit.
Is Nikita Kucherov a leader? Last year Steven Stamkos barely played for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Kucherov was the go-to guy. He put up great numbers, but the team missed the playoffs for the first time in years.
This year Stamkos is back. Kucherov is putting up similar numbers, but this year the Lightning are the top team in the Eastern Conference.
What would have happened if Kucherov had been out last year instead of Stamkos? Why didn’t his excellent individual numbers translate into wins for the team? Is it that while Kucherov is an extremely talented hockey player he isn’t the leader that Stamkos is? Is he a beta male? Is Stamkos an alpha male?
If you only look at statistics, if you only judge a player based on their numerical output, then you miss a lot. Should a player be given an individual honor like an All-Star selection or a year-end award based on their numerical output alone? Or should the hierarchy, order and structure of the team that they are a part of be taken into account?
Should a player be signed to lead a franchise based solely on their numerical output? What if that numerical output is a product of their previous team’s hierarchy, order and structure? Will that numerical output necessarily be as good for their new team? If so, will it translate to wins?
Kris Bryant was given the National League MVP award in 2016. Would his numbers be what they were that year if Anthony Rizzo wasn’t on the team? Perhaps. But Rizzo is the team’s leader. Their alpha male. He should have won MVP that year. His numbers are pretty good too. Does the BBWAA even take into account such things? Or do they just look at statistics?
Rick Porcello had a 4.92 ERA with the Boston Red Sox in 2015. Then, prior to the 2016 season, they signed David Price. Porcello’s ERA decreased to 3.15 in 2016. Was Porcello’s numerical output that season a result of David Price’s presence in the rotation? Was Porcello able to take a deep breath, given that Price, the $200 million man was taking all of the heat from the fans and the media?
The BBWAA gave the Cy Young Award that year to Porcello. Meanwhile, Justin Verlander was doing his thing in Detroit. Does Verlander need protection? Comparing Verlander and Porcello’s statistics is comparing apples and oranges.
In 2017, with David Price hurt, Porcello’s ERA skyrocketed to 4.65. Price is back healthy this year. Porcello will pitch better.
He will hit free agency after the 2019 season. If a front office were merely to look at his aggregated statistics from his time in Boston, they would miss a huge part of the story. If they were to merely look at his performance year to year isolated from the broader team structure in which he is a part, they would miss a huge part of the story. If a team signs him to be an ace pitcher, look for his numbers to skyrocket again.
In baseball, you need either your ace pitcher or your lineup’s anchor to be an alpha male. If both are beta, your team will be weak.
In basketball you need your star player to be an alpha male. If your star player is a beta, your team will be the Milwaukee Bucks.
In hockey you need either your star player or your goalie to be an alpha male. If both are beta your team will be accused of needing more “sandpaper.”
In football you need one position and one position alone to be manned by an alpha male.
Why did the Atlanta Falcons blow a 25 point lead with just over a quarter left to play in the Super Bowl in 2017? Is Matt Ryan a leader-type? An alpha male? When the heat got turned up, why did his team crumble?
The Detroit Lions led the NFC North for much of the 2016 season. Then the Green Bay Packers got going. They ended up winning the division title, and the Lions got eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. Why did Matt Stafford’s team slip when Aaron Rodgers’s team started breathing down their neck?
Philip Rivers has been the quarterback of the Los Angeles Chargers, formerly known as the San Diego Chargers, since 2004. Rivers has accumulated excellent individual statistics. Still, the team has made it to the AFC Championship Game just once during his tenure. Why does his good individual play not add up to wins and playoff success for the team?
Quarterback is a leadership position. In fact, it is THE leadership position on a football team. Every other player on the team is a role player. If your quarterback is a leader-type, your team has the potential to be a good team. If your quarterback isn’t a leader-type, it doesn’t matter how talented he is. Your team is going to have a low ceiling.
In all four sports, you need to have leaders who are alpha males. Beta males can not lead. If your leader isn’t a leader-type then your team is going to be run over the second it faces a team with a true leader.
Statistics alone can not tell you about a player’s personality type. You have to look at their track record – that is, their team’s performance – their public statements, their appearance, their vibe, their energy, their swag, etc. Such things are far more useful in predicting a player or team’s future success than statistics.
SABR Skeptic 