Anybody looks good when things are going well. But when adversity hits? Then we see what you’re really made of. Everybody is confident at least some of the time. But confidence always turns to doubt eventually (Thanks Shaq). When that happens, are your fundamentals strong? Are you built on a solid foundation? Or when doubt creeps in, as it always does, will you crumble like a house of cards?
At the outset of the season, we were told that Major League Baseball is ruled by the Super Seven – the Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, Indians, Astros, Red Sox and Cubs. Everyone predicted that those teams would make the playoffs. Most everyone predicted that they would win their divisions (with most predicting the Yankees to win the AL East, and the Red Sox to make the Postseason as a Wild Card).
SABR Skeptic took a different approach. We predicted the Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, Indians and Astros to miss the playoffs this season.
How are they doing?
Not well, at least according to everyone except for SABR Skeptic’s expectations. Their combined record as of this writing is 37-36. Not so Super after all!
The Astros are the best of the bunch. They are 10-5. But there are signs of trouble ahead. The Astros held a 5-0 lead yesterday over their in-state rivals, the Texas Rangers.
They choked. The Rangers came back and won 6-5.
Confidence turns to doubt.
Everything was going so well. Altuve and Correa were both swinging the bat well. Gerrit Cole turned into a Super Pitcher. Charlie Morton was cruising. Yulieski Gurriel had just hit a three run home run in his second game back from injury and suspension.
Entering the 5th inning yesterday, the Houston Astros were The Shark.
Then, the Rangers came back and won 6-5.
Now, the Astros are The Manatee.
What are they made of? Do the Houston Astros have a solid foundation? Are their fundamentals strong? Is there anything in their collective unconscious that may rear its ugly head now that they are doubting?
Everyone (except for me) says they are a Super Team. They have high expectations. Along with expectations comes pressure. Can they handle it?
Carlos Beltran was a calming influence last season. He’s gone now. So is Alex Cora. His Red Sox are off to quite a start. Who will be there for the team to fall back on when things go south? They already are.
How about the Indians?
They are 8-6. Not bad. Not Super, but not bad.
They are having trouble scoring runs though. They rank 22nd in the majors in runs scored. Weak. They also rank 26th in team slugging. More weakness.
Their vibe is off. What is going on with The Cleveland Baseball Team? Is there anything going on that could be distracting them? Is The Cleveland Baseball Team built on a solid foundation this year?
Terry Francona’s garrulous personality can only take them so far.
What about the Nationals?
They started off the season 4-0. They had scored 29 runs in 4 games, Bryce Harper’s OPS was above 1700, and Max Scherzer looked dominant, as usual.
They were The Shark.
Then, adversity struck. They lost back to back games in Atlanta. They were 4-2 heading back to D.C. for a three game series with the division rival New York Mets.
Confidence turned to doubt.
Are the 2018 Nationals built on a solid foundation? Are their fundamentals strong?
Absolutely not.
Dusty Baker single-handedly took them from dysfunction and disappointment to a 95 win season in 2016 and a 97 win season in 2017. Coaching Matters. Leadership Matters.
What thanks did he receive from the front office? He was fired. Apparently, not enough pitching changes is why the Nationals lost in the NLDS last year. If only Dusty Baker had read “Ahead of the Curve” by Brian Kenny, the Nationals would have finally advanced to the NLCS.
Please. The problem with the Nationals isn’t that Dusty would rather watch “High Heat” than “MLB Now,” the problem with the Nationals is that Mike Rizzo read “Ahead of the Curve” by Brian Kenny. He should have read “Intellectuals and Society” by Thomas Sowell instead. Then maybe the Nats would have had a chance this year. They don’t.
Cancel the season. It’s over.
They got swept by the Mets. 4-5. Statement series for the Mets, who, by the way, I picked to win the NL East. They look real good right now.
The Rockies just got em 3 out of 4. And their manager has a perpetual deer-in-the-headlights look. Says a lot about how bad this Nats team is after firing Baker.
They are 7-9. They are The Manatee now, as they will be all year. The Sharks around the league will feed on their weakness.
After Rizzo fired Baker, Nationals players were unhappy. It shouldn’t be a “surprise” that the Nationals aren’t good this year, but everyone in the media will refer to their bad season as a “surprise.” Everyone that is, except for me.
The Dodgers have really surprised the Intelligentsia. PECOTA projected them to win 99 games this year. Unfortunately for PECOTA, analytics can not measure chemistry. And the Dodgers have a major chemistry problem.
First, Andrew Friedman traded the heart and soul of the team, AJ Ellis. Ellis’s statistics were sub-par. But he was a player that was beloved by his teammates. And he is Clayton Kershaw’s BFF. Kershaw didn’t take the news well when Ellis was traded. Why then was anyone surprised that Kershaw imploded in Game 5? Maybe he was thinking “where is AJ Ellis? Why did that scrawny little guy in the front office trade him? It would be cool to win a World Series, true. But, without AJ here, it just won’t be the same,” then, next thing ya know, 4-0 lead gone.
All of the predictive models in the world could not tell you the impact that trading Ellis would have on Kershaw’s psyche. On the team’s psyche. No matter how good Austin Barnes’s pitch framing is, he isn’t AJ Ellis.
The Dodgers were an extremely talented team last year. They were The Shark for much of the season. In September though, they collapsed, badly. Their fundamentals were rotten. Their foundation was built on the flawed idea that numbers on an Excel spreadsheet tell you more about a team’s identity than the human beings playing the game on the field.
Friedman and Zaidi could have learned their lesson. They could have brought Ellis back. He was a free agent this past offseason. Instead, they doubled down, trading another major piece of the team’s chemistry, Adrian Gonzalez.
The Dodgers used to be a great team. Now, at 5-9 to start the season, they stink as bad as the lake of sewage that flooded their home ballpark the night before the season began.
The Yankees are doing ok. 7-7. Not too bad.
They are an extremely talented team. It is still very early in the year. They will play better. They will become The Shark. But, they will face adversity, as every team does.
How are their fundamentals? How is their foundation?
Alex Rodriguez is back in the organization.
Asked and answered.
They will miss the playoffs this year, as will the Dodgers, as will the Nationals, as will the Indians, as will the Astros, as I predicted.
The Intelligentsia has been The Shark for a long time. Many people have gained immense wealth and power.
2017, with Friedman’s Dodgers and Luhnow’s Astros was the peak of The Intelligentsia. It’s all downhill from here for them. They will become The Manatee.
The Dodgers looked unbeatable late in August of last year. Then they lost 16 out of 17 games and blew a 4-0 lead in Game 5 of the World Series.
How are the Intelligentsia’s fundamentals? Is their foundation strong? Or is it as hollow and vulnerable as last year’s Dodgers?
SABR Skeptic 