What is an “Ace?” Is it the pitcher with the best individual statistics in any given season? Or is it something else?
If Pitcher A has an ERA of 3.00 and Pitcher B has an ERA of 4.00 that does not necessarily mean that pitcher A is the Ace. Pitcher B, in fact, may be the ACE.
A situation like that occurred with the Red Sox in 2016. Rick Porcello had the better ERA by far, but David Price was the Red Sox Ace that season.
An Ace is a leader. An Ace is a protector. An Ace’s presence allows the other pitchers in the rotation to chill out and do their thing.
Luis Severino is a budding Ace. But, he isn’t the Yankees Ace yet. Slow your roll, everyone.
Severino came up from the Minors and pitched outstandingly in 2015. His poise was exceptional. Severino brims with confidence. But, even an Alpha Male can struggle at times. Severino is young. In 2016, his first full year with the Yankees, he struggled badly. His ERA was 2.89 in 11 starts late in 2015. It ballooned to 8.50 in 11 starts in 2016. He was sent back to the Minors and pitched out of the bullpen late in the season.
Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia were both in the Yankees rotation in 2016. But Sabathia was coming off three turbulent seasons marred by injury and ineffectiveness. And Tanaka was coming off a down year in which his ERA was 3.51. Plus, his elbow was a concern. Both were in the Yankees rotation in 2016, but was either in a position to protect a struggling young starter?
By 2017, they were. Severino was looking to bounce back after the disappointing 2016 season. Sabathia enjoyed a career renaissance in 2016. His ERA was 3.91 and his Win-Loss record was 9-12, but Sabathia has gravitas. He’s one of the best pitchers of all time, and he was back in the rotation pitching well. His numbers may have been subpar in 2016, but he threw 179.2 innings. CC was back. And Tanaka had a major bounce back season in 2016, pitching to a 3.07 ERA with a 14-4 record in 31 starts. Not bad for a guy whose arm was apparently about to fall off.
Sabathia and Tanaka were both re-established as front-line major league starting pitchers at the outset of the 2017 season. They were in a position, then, to protect Severino.
A “struggling” pitcher can still protect. Tanaka’s ERA may have been astronomical early last year, but his presence in the rotation, along with Sabathia, allowed Severino to fly under the radar and do his thing.
That’s what he did. On June 10th his ERA was 2.75 and he was accumulating a ton of strikeouts. He was pitching great, like the Severino of late 2015.
Some might say “He wuz pitchin gr8 l8 in twnty fifteen so ur wrong.”
Um, here’s the thing. Severino was The Shark late in 2015. Then, he became The Manatee early in 2016. When you’re The Shark you don’t need protection. When you’re The Manatee and you’re 22 years old and you’re getting rocked night in and night out and the rabid New York mob is calling for your head, you need protection. Severino didn’t have it in 2016. Last year he did. And he was pitching like it. He was pitching like an Ace, but he wasn’t the Ace. Sabathia and Tanaka were the Aces. Severino was a product of protection. An ERAce, if you will.
Everyone was saying “He iz tha ace.”
They were all wrong.
Four instances prove my point.
First, on June 15 of last year, Sabathia hit the DL with a pulled hamstring. Sabathia was off to a great individual start. Tanaka was giving up more home runs than Hunter Strickland in the 2014 Postseason. Sabathia and Tanaka together were protecting Severino. Could Tanaka alone?
No. He couldn’t.
Severino started to struggle. In his first start after Sabathia hit the DL, Severino gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in Oakland. He hadn’t given up more than 3 since Opening Day. Then he gave up 5 earned runs to the Angels in the Bronx. He was much better against the White Sox in Chicago, but he got rocked in Houston in his next start, giving up 6 earned runs in 5 + innings.
Severino didn’t just happen to lose his mojo the second Sabathia hit the DL. Just like Betances didn’t just happen to lose the strikezone the second he got bumped from the closer role last September. Just like Judge didn’t just happen to find his swing again the second Matt Holliday came off the DL that same month.
Things don’t just happen to happen.
Sabathia was out. Severino didn’t have the protection he needed. Everyone was saying “he iz tha ace.” The truth is, he was the ERAce. Without Sabathia there, he was exposed, badly.
Sabathia returned from the DL that July 4th against the Blue Jays. All of a sudden, Severino’s back. His ERA had increased from 2.75 to 3.52 with Sabathia on the DL. After Sabathia returned his ERA dipped all the way to 2.91 in his next six starts. The Super Pitcher had returned.
What all the hooplah over Severino’s great start to 2017 missed is that baseball is a team game. No individual player’s numbers can be understood without the broader team structure in which they are produced. Looking simply at an individual player’s statistics misses a lot.
Some might say “it wuz tha all star brake! He wuz tiyured!”
CC Sabathia hit the DL again on Friday, August 11th with a knee issue. Then, Tanaka, who had been pitching much better, was placed on the DL the very next day. The day of Severino’s start against the division rival Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium.
It was a Big Game. And Mad Dog Russo will tell you, in case you didn’t know, that BIG GAME MATTERS!
Not only had Severino become the Yankees Ace, according to the Intelligentsia. He was now widely seen as a Cy Young candidate as well. A total confusion of the team’s hierarchy, order and structure. Baseball is a team game.
Ok kid. No Sabathia. No Tanaka. This is your moment. What can you do?
Severino was AWFUL in the start against Boston. He pitched into the 5th inning. Great. He gave up 10 runs, 8 of them earned, in the process.
Ace test given. Ace test failed.
All that rest from the All-Star Break must have worn off the second Tanaka and Sabathia hit the DL. That’s it. Sure.
Tanaka and Sabathia were back in a hurry. Thank goodness for Severino.
The Yankees should have started Tanaka or Sabathia last year in the Wild Card Game. Starting a one game playoff is an Ace spot. That start was another Ace test for Severino.
How did he do? He got rocked by Minnesota so badly that he was pulled after recording just one out.
Maybe he just didn’t have it that night. Or maybe, just maybe, he shouldn’t have been in that spot in the first place. People only thrive in their proper roles.
Severino got the start this year on Opening Day in Toronto. He was Super Awesome. He was Super Awesome in his next start too against Tampa Bay.
Then, Sabathia hit the DL. Would it surprise you if I told you that Severino struggled in his next start?
He gave up 5 runs in 5 innings and took the loss against the Red Sox in Boston.
Maybe the Fenway mob got to him. Then again, baseball is a team game.
SABR Skeptic 