Before this season started it was a consensus among the “experts” that the Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, Indians and Astros would all make the playoffs. That consensus was wrong.
Consensus opinions are often wrong.
It is a consensus opinion of The Intelligentsia that Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. Is it correct?
First of all, analyzing individual players in a game like baseball is a limited exercise, given that baseball is a team game. What is the point of ranking individual players in a team game?
A hypothetical draft of every player.
Fine. I’ll play along.
What makes a baseball player great? Is it the player who is the best all-around player? That is, the player who is the best slugger, hitter, defender, runner and thrower? Are each of the tools equally important? What about intangibles like leadership and character?
All-in-one metrics, such as Wins Above Replacement or WAR are in vogue these days. Are those metrics the best way to determine a player’s greatness? Or are they a way for people like Brian Kenny to make money and gain prestige?
Defense, baserunning and arm strength are all relevant. But, none of those skills can ever transform a team. The New York Mets didn’t take off in 2015 because Yoenis Cespedes has a great arm. They took off because Cespedes is an elite slugger and a true leader.
A similar dynamic was at work when the Atlanta Braves acquired Matt Kemp in 2016. They were 37-68 at the time of the trade. They went 31-25 for the rest of the season. More than that, many of the role players on the team had better numbers following the trade than they did before it, as did many of the role players on the Mets after they acquired Cespedes the year before.
No one is going to accuse Matt Kemp of playing defense. The surge that the Braves experienced following his arrival was about his slugging and his leadership, the two transformational attributes that a player can bring to a team.
Slugging is 8/10 of what makes a baseball player great. Another 1/10 is hitting for average. The other 1/10 is everything else – on base percentage, defense, baserunning and arm strength.
Slugging is transformational. So is leadership. Nothing else in the game of baseball is.
Mike Trout is clearly the best all-around player. He is a great slugger. He also hits for a high average and his OBP is through the roof. He also has the reputation of being one of the best defensive outfielders in the game, and he runs like the wind, as they say. I guess he’s got a good arm too. I would assume so considering the hype he gets. Not that arm strength matters at all.
If “best player in the game” is defined as “best all-around player” clearly Trout wins. However, as I said above, slugging and leadership count far more than everything else.
Trout clearly is a leader. He’s a strong-silent alpha male, not an exuberant outgoing alpha male like Anthony Rizzo or an intimidatingly handsome, hyper-intense alpha male like Bryce Harper. But Trout is clearly a leader type.
Rizzo has the leadership qualities, to be sure. He’s also an excellent slugger. He’s underrated. He has the two main attributes down. Plus, he’s got a high OBP, if you’re into that kind of thing. He has 100 RBIs in each of the last three seasons, and who isn’t into RBIs? And he apparently can play some defense too. Why is he ranked so low on lists like these? Is baserunning really valued that highly? It shouldn’t be.
Harper is a leader type, no question. He’s also a tremendous player, but he isn’t the slugger that Trout or Rizzo is. His OBP is, however, excellent. He’s overrated because of that. Plus, he is injury prone and he has character flaws. Did he really need to call out his closer, Jonathan Papelbon in 2015 in the media? Did he really need to weigh in on the Miami Marlins personnel decisions? Harper has a lot of growing up to do.
Machado is great all-around, but he isn’t the best slugger around.
Hosmer is handsome enough to make all of the wretched beta males in the SABRmetrics community despise him, but he isn’t the most talented player in the game.
Arenado has 130 RBIs year after year – a major Legit Dude Indicator – but he does it in Colorado.
Altuve is a Legit Dude, but he’s overrated because of his height.
McCutchen was a great player. Then he cried foul about the Postseason format. His performance has suffered mightily since. Attitude Matters.
Longoria is handsome, but handsomeness alone can not qualify one for “best player in baseball.”
Donaldson calls himself the “Bringer of Rain” – something’s not quite right there.
Votto needs to listen to Mad Dog Russo and swing the bat for once – again, OBP is overrated.
Abreu is fat. Then again, so was Babe Ruth. Still, there are better sluggers than he.
Cespedes earns points because of how bad he made Billy Beane look in 2014 and 2015, but he’s injury prone and isn’t getting any younger.
Puig is underrated – he played great last year when The Intelligentsia finally stopped treating him like a platoon player – but he does have a character issue.
Players that don’t have the requisite personality type shouldn’t even be considered. That rules out Cano, Encarnacion, Correa, Goldschmidt, Bryant, Stanton, Blackmon and Betts.
Pedroia, Molina, Jones and Posey are all leader types, and are invaluable to their teams, but like Hosmer, none of them have the talent to qualify them for “best player in baseball.”
Kershaw, Bumgarner, Verlander and the other great starting pitchers should be considered, but I’d take a position player over a pitcher any day of the week if I’m looking for a player to build a team around.
So who is the best player in baseball? Is it Mike Trout? He’s better than Harper – he has better power numbers and he comes without the baggage. He’s better than Rizzo too – Rizzo is underrated, but Trout is a better slugger and he can do the rest better as well. Is there a player who has the requisite personality type whose power separates him from Trout?
Yes. That player is Aaron Judge. Judge, like Trout, is a strong, silent alpha male. Trout may be a better defender, baserunner and he may have a better throwing arm. But Judge’s power is the separator. Last year, in his rookie year, he hit 52 home runs, and his slugging percentage was .627. Woah. Trout is a great slugger, but his career high in home runs is 41, and his consistently high slugging percentages are a product of his speed as much as his power, unlike Judge who doesn’t need to hustle for doubles – he’s too busy jogging around the bases after hitting the ball 600 feet. That’s next level.
Ballpark Shmallpark. Just go watch Aaron Judge’s home runs. Has Trout ever hit a home run like this or this? No. He hasn’t. Mike Trout makes all the highlight reel plays and he can steal a base or two. Aaron Judge hit a home run that put a dent into Yankee Stadium. Mike Trout draws a lot of walks. Aaron Judge makes jaws drop. Aaron Judge makes opposing pitchers weak in the knees. Aaron Judge hits home runs that shake the Earth. Mike Trout runs with Sasquatch. Aaron Judge is Sasquatch. Mike Trout is a Legit Dude. Aaron Judge is The Legit Dude.
Mike Trout is only the best baseball player if by “best player” you mean “best all-around player.” It’s all about slugging. It’s all about home runs. Chicks dig the long ball. Aaron Judge is the king of the long ball. He is the best player in baseball.
SABR Skeptic 