Why did the Houston Astros win the World Series in 2017? Talk to The Intelligentsia and they’ll tell you about advanced degrees from Ivy League schools, math majors, formulas, equations, WRC+, K/9, DRS, UZR – you get the idea. The thing is, they’re wrong. They’re wrong and they’re in denial. They are desperate to feel relevant. They are desperate to fool the world and to fool themselves into thinking that they are above The Jocks. They aren’t. Jocks are above intellectuals – that’s High School 101.
Baseball teams are built around leaders in key positions. There is the leader of the position players or The Lineup Anchor. The leader of the starting rotation, aka The Ace. And the leader of the bullpen, aka The Closer.
The 2016 Cubs had Rizzo, Lester and Chapman. The 2015 Royals had Hosmer, Cueto and Davis. The 2014/12/10 Giants had Posey, Bumgarner/Lincecum, Casilla/Romo/Wilson. The 2013 Red Sox had Pedroia, Lester and Uehara. The 2011 Cardinals had Pujols, Carpenter and Motte.
Every player outside of those positions – Lineup Anchor, Ace and Closer – is a role player.
The 2017 Houston Astros had Jose Altuve, Justin Verlander and Ken Giles.
How did each of them arrive in Houston?
Luhnow traded for Giles. Good for him. Give him a pat on the head. Good job Jeff. Not that Giles could get anybody out at all in the 2017 Postseason. He was terrible. Just terrible.
How about Verlander? The SABRmetrics guys will tell you that the reason the Astros won last year is because Brad Peacock was pitching out of the bullpen. Why do they say that? Because they are jealous that Justin Verlander is The King of America and they are Whack Dudes.
How did Justin Verlander end up in Houston? Luhnow was going to stand pat at the trade deadline. He was going to hoard prospects. See, the Astros have a “window” during which they can win. According to The Intelligentsia this window goes through the mid-2020s. The thinking was that selling prospects in order to make a run at winning the World Series last year would jeopardize opportunities to win in the future.
What a load of nonsense that thinking was. See, the Astros broke out in 2015 not because of Jeff Luhnow. They broke out in 2015 because of a Legit Dude named Dallas Keuchel who was drafted by Ed Wade, the scout who ran the Astros before the geniuses showed up, and because of another Legit Dude named Jose Altuve who was signed in 2007 while Luhnow was still in Physics class at Penn.
In other words, it was because of the prior Old School Regime, not The Intelligentsia. This is Basic Math.
The Astros were rolling in 2015 before Luhnow’s guy Correa even showed up. Luhnow didn’t sign Altuve. He didn’t draft Keuchel. Those guys were leading the way early in 2015. Luhnow was coasting off of Wade’s accomplishments.
We’ve seen this movie before. Everyone says “Andrew Friedman is a Genius.” Why? Because he took the team Ned Coletti built and destroyed any chance they have of winning a World Series by trading AJ Ellis?
Keuchel caught on to Luhnow’s game. When he heard that Luhnow was planning on sitting on his hands at the deadline, like a coward, he grabbed him by the collar, pushed him up against the wall and said “listen up little man. Everybody may say you’re a genius. But this team would be nothing without me. And you didn’t draft me. No no no. No no no. So here’s the deal. I want to win the World Series this year, because I know you’re not going to re-sign me, because you’re a Whack Dude. So go ahead and pick up that little phone of yours and call around, and get like, an ill starting pitcher or something.”
Of course Luhnow abided.
The King of America Justin Verlander showed up. The rest is history. Glorious history. Legendary history. Brought to you by Dallas Keuchel, who Jeff Luhnow didn’t draft, and Jose Altuve, who Jeff Luhnow didn’t sign.
Yes, Luhnow traded for 100 Miles Giles. But there isn’t a man alive who would tell you that Giles was a bigger contributor to the 2017 Houston Astros than Altuve, Keuchel or Verlander.
Has Luhnow called Wade and thanked him? If not, he should. He should go out and buy Wade a nice gift. Maybe send him his World Series ring?
Now, everyone says “the Astros are a Super Team! Super Duper Awesome!”
They are so wrong.
They had a nice moment there. No thanks to Jeff Luhnow, who is nothing more than a snobby intellectual coasting off the accomplishments of an Old School Dude named Ed Wade.
Here’s the thing. This is Keuchel’s walk year. Is Luhnow planning on resigning Keuchel? Or is he telling himself that the team’s success last year was because of analytics and his intellect and not because of Dallas Keuchel’s beard?
The Astros should be bending over backwards to lock Keuchel up to a long-term extension. A beard like that is irreplaceable. The Astros were nothing before Keuchel and they will be nothing after he goes, regardless of the average IQ in their front office.
Everyone expects them to be a Legit Team this year. This team is under a ton of pressure though, given that Keuchel’s future with the team is uncertain, and that everyone expects them to be a Legit Team this year. With high expectations comes a lot of pressure. Can the Astros handle it? Or will their reign on the top be short like leprechauns?
5 of the last 7 World Series winners missed the Postseason the next year. Bryan Sabean is a Legit Dude. So is Dayton Moore. If their teams can’t go back-to-back, then why would anybody expect a team run by a snobby intellectual to do so? What is wrong with this picture?
Opening night augured poorly for them. I don’t know what is a worse sign – the debacle at Minute Maid or the lake of sewage at Dodger Stadium. How could anyone see that and think the Astros or Dodgers will make the playoffs this year? They won’t. Neither will the Yankees, Nationals or Indians.
Maybe when that happens The Intelligentsia will be humbled. I doubt it though.
SABR Skeptic 