SABR Skepticism applies to more than just baseball. As the NHL and NBA Conference Finals approach, this is a good time to discuss the myriad principles of SABR Skepticism that apply to both hockey and basketball.
The Toronto Raptors used to play “grit and grind” type basketball. This year they switched to a “pace and space” system. Demar Derozan mid range gave way to threes and a Super Bench. Result? Another sweep in the second round to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Would they have been better off sticking with “grit and grind?” System Matters.
The Indiana Pacers were not expected to be a competitive team this year. They had just traded All-Star forward Paul George. It looked like they were headed towards the lottery. Then, Victor Oladipo, who played his college ball at Indiana University showed up. He had a breakout season and the Pacers made the playoffs, pushing the Cavaliers to seven games in the first round. X- Factor.
The Miami Heat used to have Lebron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. Last year all three were gone. The team had good players, but nothing compared to the big 3 that once ruled Miami. Still, the Heat rallied and almost made the playoffs, and then with a similar roster this year they made it to the playoffs. They have an excellent coach, Erick Spoelstra and their front office is run by Pat Riley. Enough said. Coaching Matters. Culture Matters.
The Portland Trail Blazers lost four key pieces prior to the 2015-16 season: LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez, Nicholas Batum and Wesley Matthews. Still, they had Damian Lillard. Damian Lillard is So Legit. So, despite the subtractions to their roster, the Trail Blazers remained So Legit. Leadership Matters.
The Utah Jazz lost Gordon Hayward in free agency prior to this season. Then, Donovan Mitchell walked in the door. Wow. That Dude is Legit. He carried the team back to the playoffs, where they lost in the second round for the second straight year. Still, a great season for that team. Dominant Isolation Scoring Matters.
The Oklahoma City Thunder had three former All-Stars on their roster this past season: Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George. Still, the team struggled, badly, at times. Meanwhile, a team with just one star player, the Portland Trail Blazers, finished ahead of them in the standings. Chemistry Matters.
The Golden State Warriors blew a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals. Then, Kevin Durant showed up. The Super Team remained Super Awesome. What would have happened if Kevin Durant had stayed in OKC? Would the Super Team have remained Super Awesome? Kevin Durant Matters.
Lebron James brought a championship to his hometown. That was so great, wasn’t it? Lebron James Matters.
Everyone said “Steph Curry is the best player in the NBA.” Then Lebron James, the actual best player in the NBA, rose to the top. Truth Matters.
How about hockey?
Steven Stamkos was out for the vast majority of the 2016-17 season. Nikita Kucherov put up Legit Stats but it didn’t translate to wins and losses for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Kucherov was Legit again this year, but this time around Stamkos was healthy. Go figure, the Lightning regained their old form as one of the best teams in the NHL. Hierarchy, Order and Structure Matters.
The Boston Bruins traded for Rick Nash at this year’s trade deadline. The team already had two Legit Forwards – Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. Bergeron was out with an injury in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs first round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Bruins won that game and took a 3-1 series lead. Bergeron returned for Game 5. The Bruins lost the next two games. Chemistry Matters.
Conor McDavid, Auston Matthews and Patrick Laine are three of the best young players in the NHL. McDavid’s team, the Edmonton Oilers, missed the playoffs this year, while both Matthews and Laine’s teams made the playoffs. Does that mean McDavid is worse than Matthews and Laine? That he suffers from a bad case of Weakness? No. It doesn’t. It means the Oilers made a huge mistake trading Taylor Hall. And that while a backup goalie may be good as a backup, it doesn’t necessarily mean they will be good as a lead goalie. Personality Type Matters. Leadership Matters. Chemistry Matters.
The Intelligentsia were like “why are the Ottawa Senators good? They shouldn’t be good. The numbers say they should be bad.” Then, the Senators traded for Michel Duchene. Then The Intelligentsia was like “now the Senators will finally be good.” Then, the Senators totally collapsed and missed the playoffs while the year before they had pushed the Pittsburgh Penguins to Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Intelligentsia’s opinion is Totally Irrelevant no matter what sport you’re talking about.
The Vegas Golden Knights are an expansion team. Yet, their coach Gerard Gallant was dismissed by The Intelligentsia when he was the coach of the Florida Panthers a year prior. That’s Good Karma. Coaching Matters. And their goalie Marc Andre Fleury got no credit whatsoever for the Pittsburgh Penguins back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017, despite the fact that young Matt Murray was protected by his presence on those teams’ rosters. Again, that’s Good Karma. Karma Matters. Go figure, this year the Penguins were eliminated in the second round, while the Golden Knights will play in the Western Conference Finals. What’s the difference from this year to the last two years for the Penguins? Obviously, Marc-Andre Fleury. Protection Matters. Leadership Matters.
Some say Sidney Crosby is the best player in the NHL. Others say Alexander Ovechkin is the best player in the NHL. Some say Ben Simmons should be the Rookie of the Year in the NBA. Others say Donovan Mitchell should be the Rookie of the Year.
Mitchell was the right choice. Why? He’s a great isolation scorer. 8/10 of what makes a basketball player great is scoring in isolation. Another 1/10 is scoring off the catch. The other 1/10 is everything else – defense, rebounding, passing, etc. (that doesn’t factor in intangibles like personality type and leadership). Triple-Doubles are Overrated. Highly Overrated. So is Ben Simmons.
Alexander Ovechkin is the best player in the NHL. Why? He’s a far better goal scorer than Sidney Crosby is. Crosby gets a ton of his points from assists, as well as goals. Ovechkin gets it done mostly scoring goals. This is his time. Year after year of agonizing playoff losses finally gave way to this week’s victory over the rival Penguins. The Washington Capitals are two series wins away from the Stanley Cup.
Sports at its best is a giant metaphor. For what? Overcoming adversity and achieving great things. Regardless of whether they win the Stanley Cup or not, Ovechkin and the Capitals will inspire and uplift. That’s sports at its best.
SABR Skeptic 