One Man Can Turn Around a Team

The Toronto Blue Jays were a mediocre team for years.  Then, in the second half of the 2015 season they surged and won the AL East Division Title going away.

The New York Mets were the Misery Mets for ages.  Then, in the second half of that same season they surged and won the NL East Division Title going away.

Why did these teams who were mediocre for so long all of a sudden turn into powerhouses?

Both teams were starved.  The Blue Jays had the great offense led by Jose Bautista.  Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson and Russel Martin were key pieces as well.  The addition of Troy Tulowitzki helped but the Blue Jays could already hit when he showed up.  What they lacked was pitching.  Namely, they lacked an Ace in their rotation.  Budding Ace Marcus Stroman had injured his knee in Spring Training and was out for most of the season.  Aaron Sanchez was mostly used as a reliever that year.  Marco Estrada had emerged as a Legit starting pitcher early that season, veterans R.A. Dickey and Mark Buerhle were pitching well, and Drew Hutchison at least provided innings.  The team was starved for leadership in their starting rotation.  They had a leader in the lineup – Bautista.  They had a leader in the bullpen – Osuna.  What they lacked was a leader in the rotation.  Without that, their team had no harmony.  It had no balance.  Balance Matters.  Harmony Matters.  Hippies Matter.

David Price is a Legit Dude.  He is, in fact, one of the most Legit Dudes in all of Major League Baseball.  He is Handsome as could be, first of all.  Second of all, he is a swaggering Alpha Male with a Beard.  And yeah he can pitch too.  Very well.  His career Win-Loss Record was 95 – 55 when he was acquired by the Blue Jays in late July of 2015.  Despite what the wretched miserable conformists in the SABRmetrics community say, Win-Loss record matters.  So does ERA, I guess.  Price’s career ERA was 2.87 when Toronto acquired him.  Wow.  I just calculated that myself by adding up his career innings pitched and his career earned runs allowed up to the time he joined Toronto and doing some division along the way.  Now, I have a headache from doing math, which I hate, as do all normal people, yet I am able to tell you that Price’s career ERA was 2.87 when Toronto acquired him.  Worth it.  Legit ERA.  Legit Win-Loss Record.  Legit Dude.  Basic Math.

Price was just what the doctor ordered for the Blue Jays.  Upon acquiring him, the team took off.  The Blue Jays were 52-51 at the time of the trade.  Mediocre.  They finished the season 93-69.  That’s 24 games over .500.  Wow.  I’ve done a lot of math today.  They also won the AL East division title, their first division title in over 20 years, going away.  That’s the difference leadership makes.

Leadership Matters.  That’s the third principle of SABR Skepticism.

How about the Mets?

They were so awful offensively early in 2015.  Their pitching was Super Awesome.  They had Super Starters – Matt Harvey, Legit Dude.  Jacob DeGrom – Legit Dude with Legit Hair and Legit Strikeout Totals.  Noah Syndergaard – Legit Dude with Legit Hair and a Legit Nickname That Suits Him.  Steven Matz – Legit Dude from Long Island – X-Factor.  So, the pitching was doing its part.  What about the offense?

It was atrocious.  Here are some numbers that illustrate this point, courtesy of Baseball Reference.  The Mets acquired Cespedes on July 31, 2015.  He played his first game with the Mets on August 1st.  The Mets team batting average was .240 in March/April, .234 in May, .227 in June and .237 in July.  Yikes.  Their team slugging percentage was .360 in March/April, .364 in May, .358 in June and .370 in July.  In August, after Cespedes joined the team, those numbers spiked.  Their team batting average in August was .269 and their team slugging percentage in July was .479.  Wow.  The latter number says a lot.  This team could barely scratch out a base hit.  Cespedes shows up.  All of a sudden they are an Elite power hitting team.  They had hit 45 home runs as a team combined in June and July.  They hit 45 in the month of August alone.  They cooled off some in September and October (prior to the Postseason, that is) – a .253 batting average and a .445 team slugging percentage, but the jolt that Cespedes had provided the offense was enough to easily carry them to the division title over the dysfunctional pre-Dusty Baker Nationals.

How was Cespedes able to provide such a spark to the Mets that year?  Well, for one thing, he is a Legit Dude.  That counts for a lot.  Second of all, his neon green sleeve gave him Super Powers.  Basic Math.  Third, he carried with him the good chemistry that the Athletics had before they traded him.  He provided that chemistry to the Mets, which added to their good karma, good vibes, mojo and General Awesomeness.  Fourth, he escaped from Communist Cuba.  Enough said.  Fifth, he is an Elite slugger.  His nickname is “La Potencia.”  That translates to “The Power.”  Fitting.  He can also hit for average and has a cannon for an arm.  Don’t take my word for it.  Check this out.  Woah.  That throw.  Billy Beane is the worst GM in the MLB fosho.  Mic drop.

Cespedes showed up.  The Mets surged to the division title and the National League pennant.

David Price sparked the Blue Jays.  Yoenis Cespedes sparked the Mets.  One man can turn around a team.

It’s happening again right now.

All year I have been clamoring for the Reds to acquire an Ace starting pitcher.  I said this in my preseason predictions about that team:

“Often, teams are a leader-type player in one facet of the game away from contending.  That’s the position the Reds are in now …

an ace type starting pitcher {is} the only thing that’s missing in order for this team to contend …

the team has a leadership vacuum in the rotation.”

I relentlessly implored the Reds to acquire an Ace starter on Twitter, here and here for example.

 

Last Tuesday, May 8th, the Reds acquired an Ace starting pitcher.

I was offering Michael Fulmer as a target for the Reds.  They acquired Matt Harvey.  Harvey is a pitcher who is coming off of two + down seasons, in which he was plagued by injury and ineffectiveness.  He has noted off-field issues.  Michael Fulmer, on the other hand, was an elite starting pitcher in his rookie season, 2016.  He had a bit of a down season last year – although the team concept in Detroit may have had something to do with that.  This year he’s off to a slow start.  Still, overall he has been a far better pitcher than Harvey the last two + years.  And he, unlike Harvey, is a model citizen.  Where they are similar is that they are both Ace starting pitchers – extremely talented, with the requisite personality type of a leader.

That’s why I said this on Twitter the day after the Reds acquired Harvey:

“The #Reds are about to take off.  One man can turn around a team.”

 

The Reds were 8-27 at the time of the trade.  They had won the night of the trade.  Since that tweet from the morning of Wednesday, May 9th?  They beat the Mets that afternoon, securing a rare series win for them, to that point in the season at least.

Then what did they do?  They waltzed into Dodger Stadium and swept the “Super Team.”  Well, at least according to everyone else’s expectations.  I picked them to win a meager 84 games and miss the playoffs this year.

The Reds won six straight games immediately after trading for Harvey.  They had won eight games out of thirty-five to that point in the season.

They lost last night to the Giants.  So, they are 6-1 since the trade.  5-1 since I said “{they} are about to take off.  One man can turn around a team.”  This was in reference to a team that was 9-27 at the time.

It is obvious that the winning streak was due to the acquisition of Harvey.  One man can turn around a team.

How far will the acquisition of Harvey take the Reds?  Stay Tuned.