Talk to the SABRmetrics people about chemistry. Or confidence. Or pressure. Or momentum. Or leadership. Or any other ostensibly unquantifiable factors in the outcome of sporting events, and they’ll play dumb. “What is this ‘chemistry’ you speak of? ‘Pressure,’ ‘confidence’ … prove they exist!”
You don’t need to “prove” the existence of these things.
Anyone with common sense understands that when Blair Walsh, at the time the kicker for the Minnesota Vikings, missed a late 27 yard go-ahead field goal after making 22, 42 and 47 yard attempts earlier in a 2015 Playoff Game against the Seattle Seahawks, that the pressure of the moment was a factor. Anyone with common sense understands that when Walsh struggled thereafter, that confidence was a factor.
Anyone with common sense understands that when Phil Mickelson is 23 for 23 on putts inside of 6 feet at Pebble Beach in 2016, but then misses a 5 foot putt on the final hole that he needed to tie for the lead and force a playoff, that the pressure of the moment was a factor.
Anyone with common sense understands that when Johnny Cueto struggled in the 2013 NL Wild Card Game with 50,000 Pirates fans chanting “Cueto, Cueto” at him, and when he struggled even worse in the 2015 ALCS in Toronto with 50,000 Blue Jays fans emulating them, that the pressure of the moment was a factor.
Anyone with common sense understands that when basketball players like Deandre Jordan or Andre Drummond struggle with their free throws that confidence is a factor. Anyone with common sense understands that when a basketball player goes into a shooting slump that confidence is a factor.
Anyone with common sense understands that when the Kansas City Royals overcame a 4 run deficit late in the 2014 AL Wild Card Game, and went on to win 7 straight games in the ALDS and ALCS en route to the World Series that momentum was a factor.
Anyone with common sense understands that when the Toronto Blue Jays traded for David Price in 2015 and took off or when the New York Mets traded for Yoenis Cespedes that same year and took off that momentum was a factor.
Momentum and confidence are related. The better you do, whether as an individual or a team, the more confidence you have. That leads to even better performance, which leads to even more confidence. This is basic human psychology and basic group dynamics.
Basic Human Psychology Matters. Basic Group Dynamics Matter.
Anyone with common sense understands that when the Los Angeles Dodgers traded AJ Ellis and lost the World Series the next year, including a game in which Clayton Kershaw blew a 4 run lead, that chemistry was a factor.
Anyone with common sense understands that when the Indiana Pacers were 41-13 in the 2013-14 season before trading Danny Granger and then subsequently went 15-13, barely made it past the 8th seeded Atlanta Hawks (record – 38-44), and then lost in the Conference Finals again to Lebron, that chemistry was a factor.
Anyone with common sense understands that when the New York Rangers traded Derrick Brassard to the Ottawa Senators prior to the 2016-17 season, only to lose to Brassard’s new team in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, that Ottawa stole chemistry from the Rangers. Anyone with common sense understands that when the Rangers doubled down and traded Derek Stepan and waived Dan Girardi prior to this past season, only to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2010, that chemistry was a factor.
Anyone with common sense understands that when Dusty Baker took over the Washington Nationals after a disastrous 2015 season, and the team won at least 95 games and the NL East Division Title each of the next two seasons, that leadership was a factor.
Leadership. Chemistry. Confidence. Pressure. Momentum. These are basic elements of group dynamics and human psychology. Why are the SABRmetrics people so steadfast to deny their existence?
People who work in SABRmetrics, in analytics, etc. have an interest in those factors being ignored. Renowned philosopher and economist Thomas Sowell talks about how intellectuals are interested primarily in protecting their own interests.
The baseball intellectuals, the SABRmetricians, that is, are in the business of selling a product – statistics. Intangible factors vastly overcomplicate their statistics. If those factors really do have an effect on the outcome of sporting events (as they obviously do) then their statistics, their ideas, etc. are worth less, literally.
There is a lot more to the game than numbers. But if all there is to the game is numbers, then, wow, those numbers are really, really valuable … aren’t they?
They may have some value. But, their value is limited because of the existence of the intangible factors discussed above.
Recognizing such things – personality type, leadership qualities, talent, etc. – requires more than just the ability to look at spreadsheets. It requires people who know how to evaluate the game of baseball beyond statistics. Scouts, in other words.
The SABRmetrics enterprise is, in effect, an attempt by intellectuals to convince ownership groups, coaches, players and fans that their intelligence is more useful than the wisdom of the scouts.
“We, and only we, The Intelligentsia, understand the game of baseball. Don’t listen to the scouts. Don’t listen to the Old School Dudes. Don’t expend any of your limited resources on them. Phase them out, and invest fully in us!”
That, in essence, is the animating force behind the SABRmetrics people. And right now, they’re winning. Too bad for baseball teams and their fans.
Their ideas have real consequences. Look at what happened when Billy Beane’s Oakland Athletics traded Yoenis Cespedes in 2014. That is far from the only example of catastrophes that have occurred when intellectuals have put their ideas into practice.
It is time for ownership groups around baseball to understand the game the SABRmetricians are playing. There are a plethora of good old school general managers on the market right now – Omar Minaya, Ruben Amaro Jr., Ed Wade and Ned Colletti, just to name a few. They would all do a better job than the general managers of many teams today. Their wisdom beats the intelligence of the SABRmetrics people – no contest.
SABR Skeptic 