“All-in-one” metrics are in vogue these days. Wins Above Replacement is an attempt to measure a player’s value in one metric. The problem is that Wins Above Replacement or WAR is a stat that is based on the foolish idea that defense, baserunning, obp and arm strength are even close to hitting for power in terms of importance. It is also limited because it doesn’t take into account leadership. Leadership is another equation entirely.
How do baseball teams work? Are they merely a collection of talent that can be measured on an Excel spreadsheet?
No. They aren’t.
Teams are anchored by leaders in key positions. There is the leader of the lineup. There is the leader of the rotation, aka the Ace. There is the leader in the bullpen, aka the Closer. And then there is the coach, aka the Manager in baseball.
Leadership Matters. That’s the third principle of SABR Skepticism.
Home Runs Matter too.
By far, the most important tool for a major league baseball player is slugging aka hitting for power. That is the driving force of a team. The power of the leader strikes fear into the heart of the opponent’s defense, which is led by the pitcher. There is an intimidation factor to a great power hitter. Take that hitter out of a lineup, and the whole thing could crumble, as the Oakland Athletics did when Billy Beane traded Yoenis Cespedes in 2014.
Hitting for average matters too. But it matters far less than hitting for power. 8/10 of what makes a player great is hitting for power. The other 1/10 is hitting for average. The other 1/10 is defense, baserunning, arm strength and on base percentage.
The conventional wisdom these days is that those tools are all equally important. That’s how you get headlines like this one from CBS Sports – “Matt Chapman might be one of baseball’s best players … “. That was written on April 16th. At the time Chapman was hitting .333 with a .650 slugging percentage. Today the batting average is down to .231 and the slugging percentage is down to .426. What a collapse. He is obviously pressing to try to live up to the absurd hype.
Matt Chapman is obviously a great defender. And every team needs players that can play defense, to be sure. Every team needs players that can play that role. But that is what defense is – a role. Matt Chapman is a role player. Not one of baseball’s best players. Duh. And that headline was written by the kind of person who says that Albert Pujols and Matt Kemp – two of the game’s best – are bad players. It’s funny. It really is. They can try to tear down Pujols and Kemp all they want. They’ll still be Awesome and the SABRmetricians will still be Awful.
Anthony Rendon is a great baseball player. There is no question about that. He’s a leader type. He’s a very good hitter (career batting average – .279) and a pretty good slugger (career slugging percentage – .457). But ask the SABRmetrics people, and they’ll tell you he’s one of baseball’s best. Why? He has a very good on base percentage (career obp – .358), and he is an elite defender. That’s why he ranked seventh last year in all of MLB in WAR.
Here’s what that fails to take into account. 1) Defense is overrated (see above). So is on base percentage. 2) Anthony Rendon’s statistics are a product of a team construct. Baseball is a team game. Would Rendon necessarily put up the numbers he does without Bryce Harper on the team? Harper is unambiguously the team’s leader. Take him off the team, and Rendon’s numbers could slip as Brandon Moss’s did after the Athletics traded Yoenis Cespedes in 2014.
Want to know what Matt Kemp’s WAR was in 2017, according to the geniuses at Fan Graphs? Negative 0.5 ( – 0.5 ). I kid you not. According to WAR, Matt Kemp was the 1,276th best player in Major League Baseball last year. That tells you EVERYTHING you need to know about SABRmetrics.
Matt Kemp is the most underrated player in baseball. Last year, when he was the 1,276th best player in baseball, apparently, these were Matt Kemp’s statistics: he had a .276 batting average. Nice! His on base percentage wasn’t even that bad. It was .318. Not that on base percentage matters. Here’s the thing though. Dude had a .463 slugging percentage. Very, very good. He hit 19 home runs and had 64 RBIs. That is in just 115 games.
His defense, baserunning and arm strength were that bad, apparently, that he was measured as a worse player than Jordy Mercer, Gorkys Hernandez and Andrleton Simmons (the 26th best player in baseball, according to WAR).
Here’s the other thing. Matt Kemp is a tremendous leader. Don’t take my word for it. Leadership is quantifiable.
Freddie Freeman was a pretty good player when Kemp showed up in August of 2016. Then, his numbers went to the next level. Yes, he had a very good June that year. But his numbers dipped then in July, before the acquisition of Kemp. Then, in August, after Kemp joined the team, his numbers surged. He sustained them into that September/October and all through the 2017 season as well.
Matt Kemp turned Freddie Freeman, Good Player into Freddie Freeman, Super Player.
The Braves traded Kemp this past offseason. Big mistake.
When Kemp showed up, August 2016, the Braves were 37-68. They went 31-25 the rest of the way. They couldn’t carry it over into 2017 – they won just 72 games last year. Maybe if Kemp wasn’t making diving catches early in the season to try to prove to everyone he’s a better player than Jordy Mercer, the Braves would have had a better season. He was plagued by hamstring problems from that point in the season. Maybe he shouldn’t have been trying to turn singles into doubles to try to prove to everyone he’s a better player than Andrleton Simmons.
The Braves were poised to have a big year this year. With Kemp, Freeman and the young phenoms Acuna and Albies, the Braves had a team that was built to win the NL East for years and years. Then, they traded Matt Kemp. Why not? He’s a negative 0.5 win player after all. A liability.
The team got off to a great start this season. But they made a big mistake trading Matt Kemp. I said as much on Twitter on May 21st. I added this – “They {the Braves} will fall apart soon.” They are 3-5 since.
I predicted the collapse of the Arizona Diamondbacks who were 19-8 when I tweeted this on Monday, April 30th. Now, the Atlanta Braves will collapse. As will the Philadelphia Phillies.
And the Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, Indians and Astros will miss the playoffs this year.
The SABR consensus is played out. Anyone who says that Matt Kemp is the 1,276th best player in baseball is someone whose opinion is totally worthless.
SABR Skeptic 