Are Relief Pitchers Overpaid?

Relief pitching has been getting a TON of hype lately.  That is leading to more lucrative deals for relief pitchers.  How’s that working out?

First, some historical perspective.  Prior to the 2016 season, a few multi year deals were given to relief pitchers.  How have they performed?

Darren O’Day was given a 4 year, $31 million deal by the Orioles prior to the 2016 season.  His ERA had been no higher than 2.28 in the previous 4 seasons, all with Baltimore.  After getting paid, though, his numbers ballooned.  A 3.77 ERA in an injury shortened 2016, a 3.43 ERA in 2017, and a 3.77 ERA so far this year.

Ryan Madson was given a 3 year, $22 million deal by the Athletics.  His ERA the previous year?  2.13 with the Royals.  His ERA jumped to 3.62 the next year.  He lowered it to 1.83 last year, split between Oakland and Washington D.C., but it’s back up to 3.92 so far this year.

Tyler Clippard had three consecutive seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA.  Then he was given a 2 year, $12.25 million deal prior to the 2016 season.  That year, he had a 3.57 ERA split between Arizona and New York.  Then, his ERA jumped to 4.77 last year split between New York, Chicago and Houston.

Tony Sipp was given a 3 year, $18 million deal.  He had a 1.99 ERA the year before.  He had a 4.95 ERA in 2016 and a 5.79 ERA in 2017.  He’s off to a good start this year, but the last two years speak for themselves.

Antonio Bastardo had a 2.98 ERA in 2015.  Then he was given a 2 year, $12 million deal by the Mets.  His ERA in 2016?  4.52 split between New York and Pittsburgh.  He had a 15.00 ERA with Pittsburgh last year over 9 outings, and he’s been out of the MLB since.

Mark Lowe had a 1.96 ERA in 2015 split between Seattle and Detroit.  Then he was given a 2 year, $11 million deal by the Tigers prior to 2016.  His ERA that year?  7.11.  He’s been out of the league since.

Shawn Kelley had a 2.45 ERA with San Diego in 2015.  He was given a three year, $15 million deal by the Nationals then.  His ERA in 2016?  It was good.  2.64.  But last year it ballooned to 7.27 in an injury shortened season.  His ERA is 4.76 so far this season.

Jonathan Axford, Jason Motte, Jonathan Broxton, Oliver Perez and Chad Qualls all experienced similar effects after being given multi year deals prior to the 2016 season.

What happened?  Were they pressing to live up to the expectations of multi year, 8 figure deals?  It sure looks that way.

Could any of those contracts be said to be a success?  Steve Cishek, who was given a 2 year, $10 million deal by the Mariners prior to 2016, is the only one who you could definitively say “yes” for.

How about the next offseason?

Brad Ziegler had minuscule ERAs year after year before being given a 2 year, $16 million deal by the Marlins prior to 2017.  His career high ERA before that year?  3.49.  Most years his ERA was sub 3.00.  In 2017?  It jumped to 4.79 and it’s 7.88 so far this year.

Mike Dunn’s ERA was 2.66 in 2013, 3.16 in 2014, 4.50 in 2015 and 3.40 in 2016 with the Marlins.  He was given a 3 year, $19 million deal by the Rockies prior to 2017.  His ERA that year?  4.47 and it’s 8.04 so far this year.

Junichi Tazawa’s ERA was steadily increasing since his first full MLB season in 2012 when he had a 1.43 ERA.  It was 4.14 in 2015 and 4.17 in 2016.  Still, his ERA jumped to 5.69 after being given a 2 year $12 million deal by the Marlins before the 2017 season.  His ERA was 9.00 in 22 outings this year before he was released.

Travis Wood had a sub 3.00 ERA with the Cubs in 2016 before he was given a 2 year, $12 million deal by the Royals prior to the 2017 season.  He had a 6.91 ERA that year with the Royals pitching mostly out of the bullpen and posted a similar figure starting for the Padres later that year.

Marc Rzepczynski had a 2.64 ERA in 2016 before being given a 2 year, $11 million deal by the Mariners prior to last season.  He had a 4.02 ERA last year, and had a 9.39 ERA this year before being released.

Santiago Casilla experienced a similar effect after being given a multi-year deal by the Athletics prior to last season.

So, prior to this past offseason, the vast majority of the relief pitchers who were given multi-year contracts in the previous two offseasons had seen their performance suffer, in many cases very, very badly.  Many experienced injuries as well.  (This does not include top level closers such as Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, who pitched very well after receiving large deals prior to the 2017 season).

What happened this past offseason?  In a market where talented, established veteran players such as Matt Holliday and Brandon Phillips couldn’t even get a contract, where Todd Frazier had to settle for a two year, $17 million deal, where elite slugger Jay Bruce couldn’t even get a $40 million contract, many relief pitchers were given lucrative, multi-year contracts.

How has that gone for them this year?

Bryan Shaw was a good relief pitcher for years through the 2017 season.  His career high ERA?  3.52, last year.  Then, he was given a three year, $27 million deal by the Rockies prior to this season.  His ERA so far this year, two months into the contract?  6.59.  Is that spike in his ERA attributable solely to the altitude in Colorado?  Is it at all attributable to the altitude?

Jake McGee pitched to a 4.73 ERA in Colorado in 2016 and a 3.61 ERA there in 2017.  Then he was also given a 3 year, $27 million deal by the Rockies prior to this season.  His ERA so far this year is 5.14.

Tommy Hunter pitched to a 2.61 ERA in 2017 before being given a 2 year, $18 million deal by the Rays prior to this season.  His ERA so far this year?  4.50.

Juan Nicasio pitched to a 2.61 ERA in 2017 before being given a 2 year, $17 million deal by the Mariners prior to this season.  His ERA so far this year?  4.45.

Joe Smith pitched to a 3.33 ERA last season with Toronto and Cleveland.  His career high in ERA prior to this season?  3.83 back in 2010.  He was given a 2 year, $15 million deal by the Astros prior to this season.  His ERA?  5.50.

Pat Neshek and Anthony Swarzak were both given 2 year deals worth 8 figures this past offseason.  Both have been plagued by injuries so far this year.

Meanwhile, pitchers who received more reasonable contracts for relief pitchers – Matt Albers, Bryan Duensing, Jared Hughes, Zach Duke and Bud Norris – have pitched very well so far this year.

Again, there are exceptions, but the vast majority of relief pitchers who were given multi year, 8 figure contracts have been plagued by injury, ineffectiveness, or both.  (Why do I mention injury here?  Simple – pressing can lead to injury, as well as ineffectiveness).

With all of the hype relief pitchers/bullpens are getting these days, this record should be getting more attention.