Why did The Roman Empire fall? I don’t know. History isn’t my forte. I’d have to pick up a Victor Davis Hanson book or something for the answer to that question.
The collapse of sports teams is an interesting phenomena. Seemingly indestructible systems falling apart. Fascinating.
Ozymandias.
Some collapses are easier to explain than others.
Why did the Oakland Athletics collapse in 2014? They looked poised to win the AL West Division Title for the third straight season. They ended up barely making it in to the playoffs, only to collapse again in the AL Wild Card Game, blowing a 4 run lead late.
Why?
Easy. The trade of Yoenis Cespedes.
How about the 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers? They were said to be perhaps the greatest team of all time. That was right before they lost 16 out of 17 games and saw a 20 + game division lead cut in half in just over two weeks.
It wasn’t a full collapse. They righted the ship and won the division. But then they collapsed again in Game 5 of the World Series. Kershaw had a 4-0 lead and he blew it. Where was AJ Ellis?
Why did the Dodgers collapse that September and then again that October?
Easy. The trade of AJ Ellis.
Those collapses are straightforward. Fairly easy to explain. The collapse of this year’s Arizona Diamondbacks is a bit more complex.
The Diamondbacks were 19-8 on Monday, April 30th. They proceeded to lose 18 of their next 26 games. They were a .500 team on Monday, May 28th.
What happened?
There were four factors involved.
First was the injury to Taijuan Walker. Walker had quietly been the Ace of the Diamondbacks going back to when he was acquired by the team prior to the 2017 season. Greinke may have the better track record, and Ray may have had the better statistics, but Walker has the personality type of a leader, unlike both Greinke and Ray. When he was injured, both Greinke and Ray were exposed, as were Corbin and Godley. Regardless of these pitchers’ individual statistics during this time, the lack of Walker’s presence in the rotation hurt the team regarding the goal of winning baseball games.
Second was Paul Goldschmidt’s personality type. Walker’s injury turned the Diamondbacks from The Shark to The Manatee, quickly. When that happens, everyone turns to the leader.
Help us! Help us!
The thing is, while Goldschmidt may be an extremely talented player, he doesn’t have the personality type of a leader. When the team needed him, and the pressure was turned up, he crumbled.
His batting average collapsed from .274 to .203 between Monday, April 30th and Monday, May 28th. His slugging percentage collapsed from .516 to .380 over that same span.
When adversity strikes, everyone in a given system turns to the leader for help. That is why it is so important to have leader types/Alphas in leadership positions. It is vital.
Third was Torey Lovullo’s bad karma. Here’s what I mean.
Bill Belichick cheats. Duh.
John Farrell took a page out of the Belichick playbook last season. He didn’t pay much of a price for doing so.
Torey Lovullo saw that happen. MLB cleared him of any wrongdoing in the Apple Watch incident.
Well. There is the court of law. And there is the court of public opinion.
Lovullo, who had previously been Farrell’s bench coach in Boston, was clearly taking a page out of the Farrell/Belichick playbook.
And he got away with it. New England always gets away with it. Everybody always looks the other way. Everybody always excuses their behavior. Why is that? Simple – everyone hates the New York Yankees.
I hate the New York Yankees now. Why? They welcomed Alex Rodriguez back to the organization. Hating the Yankees because they did that is a good reason to hate the Yankees. Hating the Yankees because they have won 27 championships isn’t.
The people who hate the Yankees and love Boston hate the Yankees because the Yankees have won 27 championships. It’s an ugly phenomenon. It really is.
Anyway, Lovullo got away with it. And so he thought he could get away with anything. And so he insulted Yadier Molina, one of the most widely respected players in all of baseball. Then, Molina got injured, badly. Then, the Diamondbacks collapsed.
There’s a correlation. Was Molina’s injury the cause of the Diamondbacks collapse?
Absolutely, yes.
Walker’s injury set the wheels in motion. Goldschmidt’s lack of leadership started the avalanche. Lovullo’s corruption was the death blow.
All that, plus a little bad bullpen chemistry, was enough to cause the Diamondbacks to collapse.
They have been playing better lately. It won’t last. The Diamondbacks won’t be a playoff team this year.
The New York Yankees will be. I predicted they would miss the playoffs this year. I was wrong. They will be in the playoffs this year. They have too much talent.
Here is what will happen with the Yankees this season:
They will collapse this season. I have been saying this over and over and over again on Twitter for the past few weeks.
Here’s why:
The Yankees are in a position very similar to the one the Diamondbacks were in before they collapsed. They have a few issues with their roster/chemistry issues, etc.
What are those issues with the Yankees?
- bad bullpen chemistry – you only need one closer. The Yankees have three. No bullpen is big enough for Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman and David Robertson. Something’s got to give.
2. bad rotation chemistry – the Yankees have enough starting pitching right now. Brian Cashman does not need to add another starter. At least not a top level starter. If they do that, then this question will be asked – who is the odd man out in the playoffs? Sabathia, Tanaka, Severino and Gray aren’t good enough? The Yankees don’t need another top level starter. That would be detrimental to their chemistry.
3. bad lineup chemistry – the Yankees didn’t need both Judge and Stanton. When Stanton is hot, the Yankees fans say “trade Judge for Verlander!” When Judge is hot, the Yankees fans say “trade Stanton for Harper!” It’s no wonder both players have been so streaky this season.
4. lack of veteran leadership – an underrated element to the Yankees success last season was the presence of Matt Holliday on the roster. That role on the team was essentially taken over by Todd Frazier late last season with Holliday on the shelf. Now, both are gone. Who is the veteran leader of the Yankees now? Brett Gardner. He’s a free agent after this season. He should have been given a contract extension long ago by the Yankees. They won’t be the same team without him. It’s hard to be a veteran leader with one foot out the door.
These are subtle points, to be sure. So are the points I made about the Diamondbacks weeks before they collapsed.
The Yankees have issues. Many teams do. What no other team has is this – Alex Rodriguez in their front office.
This is what will happen with the Yankees. They will hit adversity, as all teams do. The Yankees have chemistry problems in all three facets of the game. Things will get ugly. When they do, they will turn to the leader.
First, the veteran leader. Gardner. He’s on the way out the door. Hard to fall back on him.
They will look to Judge. Or Stanton. Which is the leader?
Lastly, they will look to Aaron Boone, the manager.
It was Aaron Boone’s freak accident prior to the 2004 season that led to the Yankees acquiring Alex Rodriguez in the first place. Aaron Boone is an avatar for Alex Rodriguez. When the Yankees look to Aaron Boone, they will see Rodriguez. And they will be reminded.
The Yankees are ripe for collapse. They will collapse this season.
SABR Skeptic 