The Phillies got a ton of hype early this season. Everyone was going goo-goo-ga-ga over the newest Super Team. Was it Gabe Kapler’s toned muscles? Shifts? The math guy in the dugout? Other innovative things?
Here is a sample of some headlines from late May.
“Like it or not, the Philadelphia Phillies are one of the best teams in baseball” said Cody Benjamin of CBS Sports.
“Four reasons the Phillies have emerged as legitimate contenders” wrote Mark Townsend of Yahoo Sports.
“The Phillies have officially emerged from their rebuild” declared Matt Collins of SB Nation.
Super!
I was not impressed by the Phillies. They were 28-19 entering play on Friday, May 25th. That was when I picked them to lose two out of three to the Toronto Blue Jays who at the time were 23-27 having gone 5-14 in their previous 19 games.
The Phillies went on to lose that series two out of three, at home, to the Blue Jays, as I predicted. That was when I sent out this tweet:
The Phillies then headed out west to Los Angeles. They earned a 2-2 split with the Dodgers, who, by the way, I picked to miss the playoffs this year.
Then, they went to San Francisco to play the Giants who are as Old School and as Awesome as it gets. Their ballpark is So Awesome. That view of the Pacific Ocean is So Awesome. Wow.
Bruce Bochy is So Awesome.
Gabe Kapler is so awful I hate that guy so much.
Anyway, the Phillies, 31-23, headed into San Francisco to play the Giants, 26-30. The Giants were 7-15 in their last 22 games heading into that series.
Still, there was this.
Why did I say that on Thursday, May 31st, the day before the Phillies and Giants were set to play their 3 game series?
Simple. Madison Bumgarner was about to rejoin the team after missing the first two months of the season with a hand injury.
Wins Above Replacement is Useless Garbage. “Useless Garbage” is a scientific term. What I do here is science.
That series was a major swing series this season. It pitted The Intelligentsia’s new darlings, the Phillies against Old School Baseball’s Best, the Giants.
Who prevailed?
The Giants swept the Phillies out of town!
The Phillies got shut out in the first two games of the series. They managed to score a run in the Sunday game when Jake Arrieta hit a home run. That was the only run the team scored all weekend.
Arrieta was not pleased with his team’s performance. He called out the team’s execution on shifts.
At the time the Phillies were by far the worst team in baseball on shifts. Isn’t that ironic? A team that is supposedly as intelligent, as sophisticated, as innovative, as super as it gets, was the worst team in baseball on shifts.
Not So Super After All!
Again, a scientific term.
The Phillies limped out of San Francisco with their tails between their legs. Next up was a meeting with the Cubs, Joe Maddon’s team.
Joe Maddon is Next Level. He walked in the door. Within two years, the Cubs were World Series Champions.
Awesome.
The Cubs proceeded to win 2 out of 3 against the new Super Team. They dropped the first two games back at home, before righting the ship.
All told, they went 3-9 in their next 12 games after I said they would “totally fall apart” on Monday, May 28th.
Did they “totally fall apart” ? Totally dude. Totally.
They have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games since. Are they Legit? Was I wrong?
NO. NO. NO.
They are Not Legit. Again, science.
The Phillies will not be a playoff team this year. Here’s why.
The Phillies once had a great General Manager. His name was Pat Gillick. Pat Gillick brought World Series Championships to Toronto in the early 1990s.
Championships Matter.
Then, Gillick brought a World Series Championship to Philadelphia in 2008.
Pat Gillick Matters.
Gillick then handed off the team to his disciple, Ruben Amaro Jr. Amaro Jr. did a good job with the Phillies. The team won the NL Pennant in 2009, made it to the NLCS in 2010, and the NLDS in 2011. The team faded in 2012. It was time for a rebuild.
Amaro Jr. did well with that. The two key pieces to this young Phillies team? Both were drafted by Amaro Jr. Aaron Nola was the team’s first round draft pick in 2014. Rhys Hoskins was their fifth round pick that year.
The Intelligentsia was all aflutter about Odubel Herrera’s on base streak earlier this season. Guess what? Herrera was a rule 5 draft pick who Amaro Jr. brought to the Phillies in 2014. Amaro Jr. signed Maikel Franco in 2010.
What exactly has Matt Klentak brought to the Phillies other than smug condescension and twerpy beta male awfulness?
Carlos Santana.
That was one of the worst signings in recent memory. Santana is an avatar for The Intelligentsia’s preferred style of player. Beta male. High on-base-percentage. Tremendous defender.
He hits a home run every now and again. Ok. Hats off to him. He isn’t a leader though. The Phillies needed a leader in their lineup this past offseason in order to take the next step. Rhys Hoskins is good, but at his age, he wasn’t going to be carrying the Phillies far.
The Phillies should have either signed Eric Hosmer, who is a great leader, or traded for Matt Kemp, who is also a tremendous leader. The Dodgers got him for practically nothing. The Phillies easily could have acquired him if they wanted to.
Instead, Klentak signed Santana. Huge mistake. Bringing him in over Hosmer or Kemp will be the difference between the Phillies being a 95 win team and an 80 win team this year.
Amaro Jr. built a great team in Philadelphia. That is why the Phillies have gotten off to an ok start this year. In order to finish the job though, one brick was missing – a leader. Santana is not a leader.
The Phillies had a good manager. Pete Mackanin was fine. There’s no reason he couldn’t have led them to the NL East Division Title and perhaps further this season.
Gabe Kapler is not a good manager. He seems to be more interested in showing how “innovative” and “edgy” he is than doing what’s right for his team.
His insistence on not declaring a closer has hurt the team badly this season. The late innings have been a disaster for the Phillies of late. Even if they were a well constructed team, which they aren’t, the Phillies would suffer mightily this season because of Kapler’s SABR BS.
Why is Gabe Kapler so enamored with analytics? He wasn’t a very good baseball player. He was vastly inferior to many, if not most of his peers when he was a major leaguer. He was beneath many, if not most of his peers. A role player. Not a star player. He can however, be a star manager. A star of The Intelligentsia. He can put himself above the Old School Dudes. He can join in The Intelligentsia’s evil plot to usurp everyone and everything that is above them.
They will fail. Badly. See, when people who are beneath others try to tear down those above them, they fail. Every time. That is what the Phillies will do. Phail.
The Phillies are an Intelligentsia Fail.
SABR Skeptic 