Let’s get this out of the way right off the bat.
Who brought Nolan Arenado to the Rockies?
Who brought Charlie Blackmon to the Rockies?
Who brought Jon Gray to the Rockies?
Awesome Hair not your thing? Who brought Kyle Freeland to the Rockies?
Who brought DJ Lemahieu to the Rockies?
Who brought Carlos Gonzalez to the Rockies?
The answer to all of the above questions is “Dan O’Dowd.” Dan O’Dowd built the core of this Colorado Rockies team. It’s a team that has a lot going for it, thanks to O’Dowd.
The team has a great leader, Nolan Arenado. How do you know Arenado is a leader? Just look at the RBI totals. Major Legit Dude Indicator. Handsomeness also tells you this.
He’s got a great sidekick in Charlie Blackmon. He’s got hair. He’s got a beard. He’s highly talented.
The team has an Ace pitcher, Jon Gray. His ERA is above 5.50. Still, he is the Ace. Not Kyle Freeland, despite Freeland’s 3.55 ERA. Freeland is the ERAce. A product of protection.
How do you know this? Jon Gray once struck out 16 batters at Coors Field. Has Kyle Freeland ever struck out 16 batters at Coors Field? NO.
The team has a great veteran glue guy, Carlos Gonzalez. He hits for a high batting average. .276 so far this year.
Batting Average Matters.
The team has an overrated “all-in-one” guy named DJ Lemahieu. Every team needs at least one of those.
All of these players were brought to the Rockies by Dan O’Dowd, their old GM.
Their new GM is Jeff Bridich. Bridich is the prototypical SABR era GM – 40 years old. Harvard degree. Beta male. Weakling. Wretched conformist.
Dan O’Dowd brought a ton of great players to the Rockies.
Who has Bridich brought to the Rockies?
There’s Mike Dunn. A relief pitcher. Bridich gave him a three year $19 million deal prior to last season.
How’s that going? Dunn had a 4.47 ERA last year over 50.1 innings. This year he has an ERA of 9.00 in 16 innings. In case you’re new to this, an ERA of 4.47 is not good. An ERA of 9.00 is awful.
Who else has Bridich brought to the Rockies?
Prior to this past season, Bridich invested a ton of money in the Rockies bullpen. He signed three relief pitchers to lucrative multi year deals. The Intelligentsia hailed his sophistication.
How has that gone this year?
Jake McGee was given a three year, $27 million deal. His ERA is 5.34.
Bryan Shaw was given a three year, $27 million deal as well. His ERA is 7.57.
Wade Davis was given a three year, $52 million deal, one of the most lucrative contracts ever given to a relief pitcher. His ERA is 4.55 and he has already blown four saves. That’s as many saves as he’s blown in the past two seasons combined. WEAK!
The Intelligentsia has said that bullpens are the next big thing. If this year’s Rockies bullpen is any indication, overpaying relief pitchers leads to them pressing as they try to live up to the high expectations of their contracts.
The Rockies had a great core of a team. Jeff Bridich has added to that a bunch of relief pitchers. It has been a total disaster.
What else has Bridich done during his tenure?
Earlier this season, he gave Charlie Blackmon a six year, $106 million contract extension. Meanwhile, Nolan Arenado, the team’s leader, is due to become a free agent at the end of the 2019 season.
Blackmon has put up tremendous numbers the past few years. Would he have done so if Arenado wasn’t on the team? Will he continue to do so if Arenado leaves in free agency? Even if he does, will his individual performance necessarily translate to wins for the team?
Part of what a leader does is set the tone for his team. When you have a natural leader like Arenado on your team, his spirit and energy provides a certain kind of morale. If he leaves in free agency, the entire team’s morale will be impacted negatively. That can lead to poor pitcher performances, offensive slumps, etc.
Leadership Matters. Third principle of SABR Skepticism.
Giving Blackmon an extension makes it less likely that the Rockies will be able to re-sign Arenado in free agency. They were essentially choosing Blackmon over Arenado. That put extra pressure on the Rockies this year. Their window to win with Arenado is closing rapidly. Could that explain the inconsistent Rockies offense this season?
When Bridich and the geniuses gave Blackmon his contract extension at the risk of losing Arenado, was leadership even discussed? Was that even taken into consideration at all? Or did they just look at the numbers, tell each other how brilliant they are, and then go play Dungeons and Dragons all day?
The Intelligentsia has said that the new MLB front office executives like Bridich – Jerry Dipoto, Andrew Friedman, Farhan Zaidi, Matt Klentak, etc. – are sophisticated, intelligent and highly educated.
That may be true. But what they lack is wisdom. Intelligence without wisdom is useless. You can have all the intelligence in the world. It doesn’t matter if you don’t know what to do with it.
Take one look at the Rockies bullpen. That is what the sophisticates have to offer. That is where Ivy League degrees lead. That is what happens when you have intelligence without wisdom.
Thomas Sowell 101.
Entering play today, the Rockies were a game under .500. What if Dan O’Dowd was still in charge? Would he have invested over $100 million in the bullpen? Would he have given Blackmon a contract extension at the risk of losing Arenado in free agency? Would he have hired a manager who has a perpetual deer-in-the-headlights look about him? Who always looks just a bit nauseous?
The SABRmetrics people love to talk about how intelligent they are. How sophisticated they are. How “progressive” they are. They love to trash Old School Baseball. They love to make fun of Dusty Baker, Ruben Amaro Jr. and Harold Reynolds. But from the collapse of the 2014 Athletics to the 2018 Rockies bullpen it is clear that the joke is on them.
SABR Skeptic 