Baseball is a team game. Therefore, all individual accomplishments have to be understood in that context. No one player’s statistics occur in isolation. No man is an island. The team construct in which each player is a part has an effect on their individual performance.
Saying that player A has a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 RBIs tells you only a small part of the story. What is player A’s personality type? How old is player A? What is player A’s past performance? What is his history as a prospect/in his career? Who are the other players in player A’s lineup? What is their personality type, etc.?
Who is player A’s coach? What is his front office like? What is their organizational philosophy?
All of these things play a role in player A’s performance.
The Intelligentsia almost never discusses these things. They talk about each individual player’s statistics as though they occur in a vacuum, in isolation from the broader team in which they are a part.
This begs the question – do individual accomplishments/performances matter at all? Since baseball is a team game, why should we care about the statistics of one individual player?
They can be useful.
Prior to yesterday’s start, Jacob deGrom had faced 12 batters this year with the bases loaded. Those hitters were 0-12 against him, with 9 strikeouts (hat tip to SNY). That tells you a lot about deGrom’s makeup. To be able to pitch under pressure like that and succeed at that level? That says a lot about him.
deGrom’s record prior to yesterday’s start? His win-loss record? 5-3.
Many have cried foul about this. “He’s not getting any run support! Poor baby!”
That’s weak talk. deGrom has earned each of those losses. If a pitcher is given a 1-0 lead, then why shouldn’t that pitcher hold that 1-0 lead? Why shouldn’t he be able to strike out each hitter he faces on three pitches?
Let’s say the Mets scored no runs for deGrom in those starts. He doesn’t have to give up runs. If he does, and the Mets score no runs, then deGrom will get the loss. That’s how it works.
The win-loss record goes back to a time when different things were valued than today. Pitching all nine innings, throwing as many pitches as necessary, even if it means your arm will fall off the next day, was the ideal. Old School Masculinity FTW.
Then again, Old School Masculinity has its limits. It may look “weak” to say “my arm hurts, I need to come out of this game,” but you’re of more use to your team pitching for the entire season.
The win-loss record goes back to a time when “I’ll finish the game and worry about my arm tomorrow I can’t look weak I can’t look weak I can’t look weak” was a bit over the top.
Still, it’s useful.
But why is it the only situational metric that is used to evaluate a pitcher’s performance? Jacob deGrom has a 5-4 record this year, but clearly he is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
My name is SABR Skeptic, but I am not here to defend traditional statistics like batting average and the win-loss record, although they are both very useful.
Aren’t there other ways to evaluate a pitcher’s situational performance other than the traditional win-loss record?
How about this. How about innings won, lost or tied?
Here’s how it would work.
Let’s say that pitcher A is pitching opening day. Let’s say he allows no runs for the first two innings while the opposing pitcher also allows no runs. Then, let’s say that the opposing pitcher gives up two runs in the third inning. Then, let’s say that pitcher A allows three runs in the fifth inning, but ends up pitching 7 innings overall that day. Pitcher A held the lead for four innings, and was losing for 3. So, his innings won percentage would be 57 %.
This way, if a pitcher were to go, say, 7 innings, allowing no runs, while his offense scores just one run, and then that pitcher gives up a 2 run home run in the 8th inning, he would still be rewarded situationally for the 7 innings in which he held the lead. He would have taken the loss for that game, but he still would have a 87.5 % innings won percentage for the game. That way, even though his team only scored one run for him in support, his moxie in holding that 1 run lead for seven innings can be rewarded. It would provide a useful counterweight to the win-loss record.
Then again, what is the point of evaluating an individual player’s performance anyway?
In the two years prior to starting this blog I didn’t look up a statistic once. Not once. And I barely did in the years before that.
Is the point for awards season? Just looking at a pitcher’s game log is a better way to evaluate that pitcher than to look at aggregated statistics or even situational metrics. Then, you have a feel for the flow of time.
The Flow of Time Matters.
Better yet, following each pitcher day in and day out, evaluating the impact each pitcher has on their team is a better way to evaluate a pitcher’s performance than the game log.
Should positive team performance be a necessary condition for a Cy Young or MVP award? No. But if the pitcher/player has a clear positive impact on the team – pitching seven scoreless innings when the team has lost four in a row, or having the team totally take off the second you walk in the door – then that should be a factor, as should the broader team construct/concept.
How about in evaluating potential free agent/trade acquisitions? Obviously, this is a time when evaluating individual player performance is necessary. Are statistics the best way to do so? Just looking at aggregated statistics or even situational statistics misses a lot. This is where scouting comes in. Looking at a game log, or following a player day in and day out and paying attention to the impact the player has on the team is a type of scouting.
The Intelligentsia says “do away with the scouts. Invest all of your limited resources in us and our precious metrics!”
Ownership groups around baseball should understand the game The Intelligentsia is playing here.
The Intelligentsia isn’t concerned primarily about helping baseball teams win games. The Intelligentsia is concerned primarily with helping themselves accrue wealth and power. That is the motivating principle of SABRmetrics.
You’d be better off just throwing away the spreadsheets, putting away the game logs, putting on your TV, and watching a baseball game. Or baseball highlights. No spreadsheet can tell you about Bryce Harper’s Hair.
Bryce Harper’s Hair Matters.
Hair Matters. Handsomeness Matters. Leadership Matters.
The Intelligentsia doesn’t matter.
SABR Skeptic 