Analytics are in vogue these days. It isn’t just sports. Political science, business, the markets, and even in fields where the stakes are extremely high such as health and medicine, law enforcement, the military and intelligence, analytics are in use.
Is this a good thing? Is there a place for analytics?
Perhaps. But what is clear is this – analytics are way way way way way way way overvalued in this day and age. (way way way way way way way overvalued is a scientific term, obviously).
Prior to the 2016 presidential election The Intelligentsia said that Hillary Clinton would be the next President of The United States. Hillary Clinton is not the President of The United States. Donald Trump is.
The polls weren’t just off. The polls were way off. Like they were way off in the 2014 midterm elections.
Why is that? It’s a question for another day. But it is clearly a good example of the limits of statistics.
The polls missed a lot.
So do statistics in sports. Psychology. The Human Element. Etc.
What were the odds of the Los Angeles Dodgers losing 16 of their next 17 games on Saturday, August 26th of last year? What were the odds of the Dodgers losing Game 5 of The World Series when they had a 4-0 lead in the 4th inning with Clayton Kershaw on the mound?
That’s what happened. The Dodgers lost 16 of their next 17 games on Saturday, August 26th of last year. And the Dodgers blew a 4-0, 4th inning lead with Clayton Kershaw on the mound in Game 5 of last year’s World Series.
Why did those things happen?
The Intelligentsia would point to the tangibles. The quantifiable. They would tell you about the facets of the game. That the offense did this, the pitching did that, the defense did this blah blah blah blah blah.
It’s getting old. The Intelligentsia is played out.
The Intelligentsia would say “Kershaw lost his command in Game 5. That is why the Dodgers lost that game.”
Sure, Kershaw lost his command. But why did Kershaw lose his command? That is the more important question.
Is it really possible that trading AJ Ellis had a determinative impact on his performance in that game? On the Dodgers season last year? Or this year?
Many, many Dodgers fans have dismissed the idea to me on Twitter this year. To them I have said “Throw a stone in the pond. There are ripples.”
How would that work?
Simple. Clayton Kershaw knows The Intelligentsia. He knows that if the Dodgers had won The World Series last year, then The Intelligentsia would have taken that as proof that chemistry is irrelevant.
Just think. Any time anyone brought up “chemistry”, The Intelligentsia could have said “The Dodgers traded AJ Ellis, who was widely seen as an integral component to their so-called ‘chemistry’ or ‘clubhouse’ or whatever you smelly jocks say. And what happened? They won The World Series the next year! Take that, Chemistry Fairy!”
Clayton Kershaw knows this. Anyone who has ever had the misfortune of watching MLB Now on MLB Network knows this.
What is the purpose for which a team plays? What was the purpose of the Los Angeles Dodgers last season? In part, the purpose of the Dodgers in the era of Friedman and Zaidi is to further the cause of The Intelligentsia.
Could the knowledge of what The Intelligentsia would have said if they had won thrown Kershaw off that night? Caused him to lose his command?
Obviously.
These are The Facts – the Dodgers traded AJ Ellis. They didn’t win the World Series that year or the next year. And they are just six games over .500 in a year where every baseball writer in this country picked them to make the playoffs. Every writer, that is, except for me, SABR Skeptic.
What would that say about analytics if I am right? If all of the “geniuses” and “experts” picked a team to make the playoffs, they miss the playoffs, and the only person who saw that coming was a 28 year old Philosophy Major living in his Mom’s basement who calls himself “SABR Skeptic” ?????
I also picked the Nationals to miss the playoffs. They look even worse than the Dodgers do right now.
I picked the Yankees to miss the playoffs this year too. I stand by it that they will do so, collapsing, as I have been saying they will on Twitter for months now.
That isn’t the only collapse that I have predicted this year. I sent out this tweet:
on April 30th. That was when the Diamondbacks were 19-8. They proceeded to lose 18 of their next 26 games.
Why did that happen?
The Intelligentsia pointed the finger at Paul Goldschmidt. They talked about the terrible slump that he went into as his team lost game after game.
Yes, Paul Goldschmidt went into a slump. The more interesting question is this – why did Paul Goldschmidt go into a slump?
Does Paul Goldschmidt have the personality type of a leader? Does Zack Greinke? They are both in leadership positions on that team. It is extremely important that leadership positions are occupied by leader types. If they aren’t, then when the going gets tough, the going gets rough.
It was more than that though. Torey Lovullo’s Bad Karma had a lot to do with it as well.
The Yankees are in a similar position now to the position the Diamondbacks were in earlier this year. They have a flawed roster. And they have a Bad Karma problem.
What is the purpose with which the Yankees are playing this season? They have brought Alex Rodriguez back to the organization. A World Series would be seen as validation of their decision to do so.
How will that affect the psyche of the Yankees down the stretch this season?
Analytics can’t tell you that. They can’t tell you about human psychology. They can’t tell you about karma. They can’t tell you about justice. They can’t tell you about humanity. That is why they are limited.
SABR Skeptic 