I have written here about an interesting phenomenon in recent years in Major League Baseball. Mid-level relief pitchers are being given multi year, 8 figure contracts and then seeing their ERAs balloon.
There are countless examples, as I discussed in the post linked to above. The latest? Anthony Swarzak of the New York Mets.
Swarzak was given a 2 year, $14 million contract by the Mets after posting a 2.33 ERA in 77.1 innings pitched last year with the White Sox and Brewers.
Swarzak was injured earlier this season, but he has thrown 15.1 innings to this point. His ERA so far? 6.46.
Mets fans may be wondering if his performance will improve and if he was worth the investment. Looking at the track record of these kinds of deals in recent years, there is no reason to expect that.
So, mid-level relief pitchers are being given multi-year, 8 figure contracts, and their performance is suffering badly. I have established as much. Now, the question is “why?”
Human Psychology Matters. Hierarchy, Order and Structure Matters.
What is a relief pitcher?
I was a Philosophy Major. Thought Experiment!
Meet Nine Innings Nick. Nine Innings Nick can pitch all nine innings, every game. He never allows a baserunner. No walks. No hits. No hit by pitches. No runs scored. He strikes out every better he faces on three pitches. Wow.
There’s more. Nick can pitch every game of the season. His arm never gets tired, and he never gets injured either. Good genes, I guess.
If you had Nine Innings Nick on your team, why would you ever use another pitcher?
Nine Innings Nick is the Platonic Ideal (again, Philosophy Major) for a pitcher. No pitcher will ever be Nine Innings Nick, but that is the ideal that they strive for.
Some pitchers are closer to Nine Innings Nick than others. Not everyone is equally talented.
Are there any pitchers that can pitch nine innings all 162 games of the year without getting injured or becoming ineffective? No.
So, you need more than one pitcher on your team. This is where a rotation emerges.
Professional baseball teams tend to use five pitchers in a rotation, with one pitching every fifth game.
Ideally, each pitcher in the rotation would pitch nine innings in each of the games that they pitch. However, given that Nine Innings Nick is an ideal to be strived towards, every pitcher will have off days. Every pitcher will struggle at times. Every pitcher will, at times, be in need of relief.
That is where the term “relief pitcher” originates. Relief pitchers are meant to be a support system for starting pitchers.
No relief pitcher sought to be a relief pitcher. All pitchers want to be starting pitchers. Starting pitchers are above relief pitchers in The Hierarchy. The vast majority of relief pitchers today in Major League Baseball are failed starters.
So, there is a hierarchy among all pitchers, whereby starting pitchers are above relief pitchers. There is also a hierarchy among relief pitchers. Not all relief pitchers are equally as effective at holding leads late in games, which is often the role that relief pitchers are called upon for.
Hierarchies emerge within bullpens themselves. This, as it does in each facet of the game, has to do with talent, obviously. But it has a lot to do with personality type as well. In effective bullpens the closer will be the relief pitcher with the requisite personality type as well as the necessary level of talent. The leader.
Just as a player in a lineup with an elite slugger’s numbers are at least in part a product of the elite slugger’s protection, just like a starting pitcher in a rotation with an ace pitcher’s numbers are at least in part a product of the ace pitcher’s protection, the other relief pitchers in a bullpen’s numbers are at least in part a product of the closer’s protection. These are the relief pitchers that are being given multi-year, 8 figure deals, and failing over and over again.
If a relief pitcher puts up good numbers for a year, does that mean that he has figured out how to pitch effectively against Major League hitters? Does it mean that he has made the proper mechanical adjustments to get Major League hitters out? Or does it mean that he found a comfort zone pitching with the protection of a leader in the bullpen in the right team setting? If the answer is indeed the latter, that won’t necessarily translate from season to season or from team to team.
Front offices are operating as though the former is the case. The performance of countless mid-level relief pitchers in recent years indicates strongly that the latter is indeed the case.
The idea of these contracts is this – “your numbers aren’t just a product of the team in which you were a part at the time you were a part of it. You have, in isolation, figured out how to effectively pitch against Major League hitters. You should be rewarded for that, and you should be expected to repeat that performance on a different team with a different dynamic at a different time.”
There is something else at work here.
Relief pitchers are beneath starting pitchers in The Hierarchy. That has been established.
A movement is at work among baseball intellectuals to overthrow this hierarchy. They want to see the natural divide between starting and relief pitching to be abolished, and to see all pitchers be made equal. They want to elevate relief pitchers and to diminish starting pitchers.
Why are they doing this? They are using relief pitchers as a proxy in their own scheme to usurp the natural hierarchy in which they are beneath the jocks. They want the real stars of baseball to be the intellectuals. They want to see the star players of whom they are jealous be torn down and to see themselves be elevated in terms of prestige and wealth.
That is the reason for the promotion of bullpens/relief pitchers in this day and age.
From this perspective, the idea of these contracts is also this – “you may be a failed starter, who merely pitched well for a brief period of time in the proper team setting for you. But we are going to treat you like a star player and pay you like a star player. Go get em!”
No wonder so many of these contracts are failing. “I’m getting paid $15 million to do this. There’s a lot being invested in me. There’s a lot of people expecting me to do well. There’s a lot of people counting on me to do well. Just relax. No pressure. No pressure at all … ”
All of a sudden 5.00 ERA.
Meanwhile, players who have been traditionally viewed as the types of players that should be invested in in free agency – veteran players, power hitters, leaders, clutch performers – are being passed on. In a market where Mark Reynolds, Matt Holliday and Brandon Phillips couldn’t get Major League contracts, Anthony Swarzak was given a two year, $14 million deal. No wonder he has struggled so badly, as have many other relievers who were given similar deals.
“I’m a star player. Relief pitchers are the stars now. We’re the stars now! We’re taking over! Brian Kenny is So Awesome! Wow, I’m so glad all of those GMs read his book.
Alright. I’m getting paid as much as Todd Frazier. I got paid $15 million while Matt Holliday is sitting at home and Brandon Phillips is in AAA. Ok. No pressure.”
All of a sudden, blown save.
Human Psychology Matters. Hierarchy, Order and Structure Matters.
SABR Skeptic 