AL East
The Yankees and Redsox are at the top of the division. Both are widely heralded as “Super Teams.”
The Yankees may look like a “Super Team” to some, but they have many problems. They have chemistry issues in their lineup, in their rotation and in their bullpen. They have a manager who didn’t have a day of experience coaching in the Majors before this season started. And they invited Alex Rodriguez back to the organization. HUGE mistake.
The Yankees are ripe for collapse. They will collapse this season. They won’t be a playoff team this year.
Old School Dude Dave Dombrowski – that’s his official job title – did a great job building this year’s Boston Redsox team.
The Redsox have been playing great lately. They will cool off soon. The Yankees will be ahead of them in the standings by the end of their series the first week in August.
The Tampa Bay Rays have been implementing Brian Kenny’s ideas, namely “bullpenning.” They have stayed afloat to this point. Why? Wilson Ramos and Blake Snell’s leadership. They will fall apart eventually. “Bullpenning” is not a viable way to win at the Major League Level.
The Toronto Bluejays are having a Blah year. “Blah” is a scientific term. What I do here is science. At least they still have John Gibbons.
The Baltimore Orioles have traded Manny Machado. I have gone back and forth this year on whether or not the Orioles should trade Machado. I have said that trading him would “spell the end of their season.” I was wrong to say that. Their season is far from over.
The Orioles will trade Zach Britton. And they will trade Brad Brach. Will they trade Adam Jones? I picked the Orioles to win The World Series this year. I have been saying on Twitter all year that they will win The World Series, even when they were 43 games under .500. If the Orioles were to trade Adam Jones, they would not win The World Series this year. Will they trade Adam Jones? No. They won’t. And so long as they have both Buck Showalter, who isn’t going anywhere, and Adam Jones, they will win The World Series this year.
The Orioles will win The World Series this year.
This is how the season will unfold in the AL East.
As I said, the Yankees will be ahead of the Redsox by August 6th. The Rays will fall apart eventually. The Bluejays will continue to be Blah. The Orioles will play well here going into the trade deadline. They will trade Britton and Brach at the trade deadline. They will keep Adam Jones. They will then surge. They could barely win a game in the first half. They will barely lose a game in the second half.
The Orioles will surge. The Yankees will collapse. The Orioles will knock the Yankees out of the playoffs. The Orioles will make the playoffs as the second AL Wild Card team. The Redsox will win the division.
The final standings in the AL East will be as follows:
1 – Boston – 94 wins
2 – Baltimore – 87 wins
3 – NYY – 85 wins
4 – Toronto – 78 wins
5 – Tampa Bay – 74 wins
AL Central
The Minnesota Twins surged into the All Star Break. They are just 7.5 games behind the first place Cleveland Indians who have been widely heralded as a “Super Team.”
Here is how the second half will unfold in this division.
The Twins will continue to surge. They will sweep the Royals and Bluejays and be back to .500 by next Thursday. They will stand pat at the trade deadline.
The Indians will continue to be mediocre. Byron Buxton’s return will give the Twins a huge boost. Then, they will overtake the Indians and win the division going away.
The Royals will get a boost from Jorge Soler’s return and play well down the stretch. The Whitesox will play better down the stretch. They do have a lot of talent, after all. The Tigers will bottom out after the trade deadline.
The final standings in this division will look like this:
1 – Minnesota – 90 wins
2 – Cleveland – 83 wins
3 – Kansas City – 74 wins
4 – Chicago White Sox – 71 wins
5 – Detroit – 68 wins
AL West
I got this division wrong this year.
The Astros will win this division. Here is why: Ed Wade built a great team.
The Seattle Mariners lost 7 of their last 9 games before the All Star Break. The Intelligentsia is saying “they’re just tired. They’ll rest up at the break and be Super again in the second half.” They’re WRONG AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Giving Jerry Dipoto a contract extension was a huge mistake. The Mariners have lost 7 of their last 9 games since. They are falling apart, as I predicted. They won’t make the playoffs this year.
The Oakland Athletics surged into the All Star Break. Ryon Healy has been replaced by Dustin Fowler as the leader of the team’s young core. And Frankie Montas is a budding Ace.
Billy Beane has made some spectacularly awful trades over the years. Would he trade Fowler and/or Montas at the deadline? Either way, the Athletics aren’t the same team without Ryon Healy. They won’t be a playoff team this year.
Mike Scioscia is The Big Kahuna. But I was wrong to pick the Angels to win the AL West this year. They won’t win the division this year. But, they will make the playoffs as a Wild Card team while Jerry Dipoto’s Mariners are sitting at home licking their wounds!
I picked the Texas Rangers to win 91 games this year. I was wrong to do so. What did I miss? The Astros beat them to The Prize. That clearly shook the Rangers up a bit.
Here is how the final standings will look in this division:
1 – Houston – 93 wins
2 – LAA – 88 wins
3 – Seattle – 80 wins
4 – Oakland – 80 wins
5 – Texas – 70 wins
National League East
The Washington Nationals made a huge mistake firing Dusty Baker. That is why they will miss the playoffs this year, as I predicted.
The Atlanta Braves made a huge mistake trading Matt Kemp. That is why they will miss the playoffs this year.
The Philadelphia Phillies made a huge mistake firing Ruben Amaro Jr. and replacing him with twerpy little Matt Klentak – that’s his official job title. Klentak signed Carlos Santana when he could have signed Eric Hosmer or traded for Matt Kemp!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The New York Mets will win the NL East this year, as I predicted. When the Mets were 11-1, I was saying that they will win the NL East this year. When they were 24-19, I was saying that they will win the NL East this year. They are 16 games under .500. I have been saying that they will win the NL East this year all along.
The New York Mets will win the NL East this year.
I picked the Marlins to win 85 games this year. That was overly optimistic for them. I do, however, think that they will finish ahead of the Nationals this year. They will win many, many games down the stretch against the Nationals, Braves and Phillies.
This is how the final standings will look in this division:
1 – New York Mets – 88 wins
2 – Atlanta – 82 wins
3 – Philadelphia – 80 wins
4 – Miami – 75 wins
5 – Washington – 74 wins
NL Central
I picked the Cubs to win the NL Central this year. They are 2.5 games ahead of the Brewers.
The Brewers were playing well for a minute there. Everyone was going goo-goo-ga-ga over a new “Super Team.” Meanwhile, I was calling them out for the decision to give Ryan Braun a contract extension last April. Go figure, they totally fell apart heading into the All Star Break, losing all 5 games to the Pittsburgh Pirates. I picked the Pirates to win 4 out of 5 in that series, by the way.
The Brewers won’t be a playoff team this year. The Pirates will make the playoffs this year, as I predicted.
The Reds were 8-27 when they traded for Matt Harvey. The day after they made that deal I said on Twitter “The #Reds are about to take off. One man can turn around a team.” Since the trade, they are 35-26.
The Cardinals have had a tough year. Alex Reyes injured his lat in his first start after returning from Tommy John. Huge bummer. Lost season for them. Firing Mike Matheny was totally unnecessary. It isn’t his fault that Reyes got hurt. He did a great job for that team.
This is how the final standings will look in this division:
1 – CHC – 96 wins
2 – Pittsburgh – 89 wins
3 – Milwaukee – 80 wins
4 – Cincinnati – 78 wins
5 – St. Louis – 76 wins
NL West
The Los Angeles Dodgers just traded for Manny Machado. Another player who is Not AJ Ellis.
Chemistry Matters. Second principle of SABR Skepticism.
Trading AJ Ellis was a huge mistake. Matt Kemp is a great player, a player who I called “the most underrated player in baseball” before this season started TAKE THAT all of you who are saying his All Star Starter Awesome Season is a “surprise.” Still, Kemp is Not AJ Ellis.
The Dodgers will miss the playoffs this year, as I predicted.
The San Francisco Giants have been said to be “too old, too fat and too slow” to win. They’re over .500 at the All Star Break!
The Intelligentsia has been saying that they should sell. That they should trade Madison Bumgarner. This is what is going on here.
The conventional wisdom of The Intelligentsia says “the Giants will fall apart in the second half. They are too old, too fat and too slow to win.” It’s total bullshit. The Giants are a great team, with a great front office, a great manager, they made two great trades trading for two great leaders – Evan Longoria and Andrew MccCutchen – they have an Ace pitcher, and an MVP candidate, Pablo Sandoval. Follow me on Twitter @SABR_Skeptic if you don’t get the reference.
The Giants will make the playoffs this year, as I predicted.
What will that say about the conventional wisdom of The Intelligentsia?
Arizona Diamondbacks
This year, I predicted the collapse of the Diamondbacks. Then, I called the end of their collapse. Now, I have predicted that they will collapse and be back to .500 again soon. They are 6-10 in their last 16 games. They will be back to .500 soon, as I say.
Colorado Rockies
Jeff Bridich assembled what many called a “Super Bullpen” this past offseason. It has been a Total Disaster. An Analytics Disaster. An Intelligentsia Fail. LOL!
Still, the Rockies played well heading into the All Star Break. Whatever. They have a GM with a Harvard degree but no wisdom, a manager with fear in his eyes and a leader with one foot out the door. They won’t make the playoffs this year. They won’t finish last though. The Diamondbacks will finish last.
San Diego Padres
The Padres just traded Brad Hand to the Cleveland Indians. Hand has been a huge drag on the Padres all year. He has blown five saves already.
Trading him will give the Padres a huge addition by subtraction. They are about to take off. They will win the NL West this year, as I predicted.
Here is how the final standings will look in this division.
1 – San Diego – 91 wins
2 – San Francisco – 88 wins
3 – LAD – 84 wins
4 – Colorado – 82 wins
5 – Arizona – 79 wins
Playoffs
AL Wild Card Game – Baltimore vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Orioles will win. The Intelligentsia will say “the Angels should trade Mike Trout!” They never learn.
NL Wild Card Game – San Francisco vs. Pittsburgh
San Francisco will win. Andrew McCutchen made a mistake when he cried foul about the Wild Card format after the 2015 season. Still, he will redeem himself by leading the Giants to victory over the Pirates in this game.
ALDS
Baltimore vs. Boston – Baltimore will win the series in 4 games.
Minnesota vs. Houston – Minnesota will win the series in 4 games.
NLDS
New York Mets vs. San Diego – The Mets will win the series in 4 games.
San Francisco vs. CHC – San Francisco will win the series in 5 games.
ALCS
Baltimore vs. Minnesota – Baltimore will win the series in 7 games.
NLCS
San Francisco vs. NY Mets – The Mets will win the series in 7 games.
The Giants made a HUGE mistake bringing Barry Bonds back to the organization. HUGE. Unlike the Yankees, they have a well-run team. Brian Sabean is a good old school baseball guy, whereas Brian Cashman is a snobby intellectual. That is, basically, why the Giants will be in the NLCS while the Yankees will miss the playoffs. The Giants could, perhaps, win the World Series next year. They will be players in free agency. They have a well constructed team. Even if they do win the World Series next year, though, that victory will be tainted by Bonds’s presence in their organization. Bonds used PEDs. He’s a liar. So is Alex Rodriguez. Sports at its best uplifts and inspires. People like Bonds and Rodriguez and Tom Brady can never uplift or inspire. They can only corrode.
The Patriots won the Super Bowl in 2017. But glory without honor is meaningless.
The World Series
The Orioles will beat the Mets in 6 games.
SABR Skeptic 
