The Intelligentsia loves to dismiss the idea of “the narrative.” Say that Yoenis Cespedes being traded from the Athletics in 2014 caused that team to collapse that year? “That’s just the narrative.”
Say that Yoenis Cespedes being traded to the Mets in 2015 caused that team to take off that year? “That’s just the narrative.”
Say that David Price being traded to the Bluejays that same year caused that team to take off that year? “That’s just the narrative.”
Nevermind that all three of those assertions are provable. Nevermind that all three of those assertions are obvious. The haughty dismissal of any kind of story to the game other than “the numbers are the story” is the topic here.
The numbers aren’t the story.
The Intelligentsia has their own narrative. In it, stodgy Old School Baseball people – scouts, Old School GMs, owners, etc. – had no idea what they were doing. Then Bill James and Billy Beane and Moneyball arrived and everything was glorious. Nevermind the collapse of the 2014 Athletics. Nevermind the collapse of the 2017 Dodgers. Nevermind the failure of Jason Heyward’s contract.
The last 20 years in baseball has been a war of ideas between Old School Baseball and The Intelligentsia. In the latter’s narrative that war has been won. The Intelligentsia is triumphant, they say. SABRmetrics work! The Astros and Dodgers were in the World Series last year! The Mariners are 20 games above .500 while the Angels are merely a .500 team! The Athletics are back on track! Jeff Luhnow’s sophisticated, analytics oriented front office won the World Series while the old school Texas Rangers are 16 games below .500! Case closed. Right?
WRONG.
The Intelligentsia’s narrative is utterly false.
They talk about the 2017 World Series as though it is evidence that SABRmetrics has won the war of ideas. Here’s what they ignore.
The World Series was won in 2010, 2012 and 2014 by the San Francisco Giants. Brian Sabean’s San Francisco Giants. The Giants are the most Old School Team in all of baseball.
The Intelligentsia says “they won because of shifts!”
Bitch, please.
The San Francisco Giants established a dynasty because of Bruce Bochy’s leadership, Buster Posey’s all-american good looks, Hunter Pence’s sermons, Pablo Sandoval’s huggableness, Madison Bumgarner’s balls and a good deal of stolen chemistry from the analytics disaster across the bay – Barry Zito in 2012 and Tim Hudson in 2014.
Here’s what else they ignore.
The World Series was won in 2015 by the Kansas City Royals. The Royals were below .500 mid-way through the 2014 season and pushed the mighty Giants to Game 7 of the World Series that same year.
The Intelligentsia says “they won because of relief pitching!”
Bitch, please.
The Kansas City Royals won the World Series because Eric Hosmer is an Alpha Male, Alcides Escobar swings at the first pitch and is too busy being awesome to work the count, Johnny Cueto’s got Great Hair, Alex Gordon is Clutch, and because they stole chemistry from the collapsing Athletics following the Cespedes trade in August 2014 and in the AL Wild Card Game that same year.
Here’s what else they ignore.
Jeff Luhnow wanted to sit on his hands at the trade deadline last year, like a coward. It was Dallas Keuchel, who wasn’t part of Sports Illustrated’s Super Team 5 year whatever who said “let’s not sit on our hands. Let’s be legendary.” Dallas Keuchel was drafted by Ed Wade, the Old School Baseball guy who ran the Astros while Luhnow was off playing Nintendo. Without Keuchel’s bold move calling out Luhnow at the trade deadline last year, the Astros wouldn’t have gotten Verlander. No Verlander. No World Series Championship. No Keuchel. No Verlander. No Wade. No Keuchel.
Ed Wade also drafted Springer. And he gave Jose Altuve a shot in Major League Baseball. Verlander, Keuchel, Springer and Altuve are the core of the Astros. They were all there when Luhnow walked in the door.
The 2017 Houston Astros World Series Championship wasn’t because of shifts, intelligence, spin rate or Charlie Morton pitching out of the bullpen. It was because of starting pitching, Old School Masculinity and Dallas Keuchel who was drafted by Ed Wade Old School Dude – that’s his official job title – NOT snobby Jeff Luhnow – also an official job title.
The 2017 Houston Astros World Series Championship was a victory for Old School Baseball NOT The Intelligentsia.
That is The Truth.
The Intelligentsia’s narrative is false.
Here’s what else they ignore.
This season is far from over.
Jerry Dipoto’s Mariners looked good earlier this season. They were 24 games over .500. Then, Dipoto got his contract extension. A huge victory for him personally. A sad day for Seattle baseball fans.
Since, the Mariners have lost 8 out of 12. They lost 7 of 9 heading into the All Star Break before winning 2 out of 3 against the Chicago White Sox this past weekend. Maybe they were just tired? Maybe they’re back on track now? Don’t count on it.
The Mariners have a very talented team. A lot like the Phillies, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Braves. But not one of those five teams is a well constructed team. That is why all five will be sitting at home in October, while the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, who are led by The Big Kahuna aka Mike Scioscia, who The Intelligentsia has been laughing at for weeks, will be playing under The Bright Lights.
According to The Intelligentsia’s narrative, it’s case closed. The Astros won the World Series. The Dodgers were right there with them. And just look at the standings today.
Here’s the problem with that. There’s more than two months left in the season.
The predictive models say that the Super Teams will all be playing in October. Here’s what the predictive models miss – The Human Element. The Braves, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Mariners, Athletics, Indians, Nationals, Dodgers and Yankees all have major problems. Not one of those teams will be a playoff team this year.
What are the odds of that? According to the predictive models? Today?
When that happens, when all ten of those teams miss the playoffs, what will that say about The Intelligentsia?
SABR Skeptic 