The 2018 MLB Trade Deadline has come and gone.
Adam Jones is still a Baltimore Oriole. Jose Bautista and Jacob Degrom are still New York Mets. AJ Ellis is still a San Diego Padre. Adrian Beltre is still a Texas Ranger. Great news for those four teams.
My predictions at the start of the season were as follows:
AL East – Boston
AL Central – Kansas City
AL West – LA Angels
AL Wildcard 1 – Texas
AL Wildcard 2 – Baltimore
NL East – NY Mets
NL Central – Chicago Cubs
NL West – San Diego
NL Wildcard 1 – Pittsburgh
NL Wildcard 2 – San Francisco
At the All Star Break this year, I held all of those picks except for these – I replaced Kansas City with Minnesota as my AL Central winner. And I replaced the Angels with the Astros as my AL West winner, replacing the Rangers with the Angels as the first AL Wildcard team.
Now that the trade deadline has passed, I would like to announce another update to my predictions. Here are my latest predictions:
AL East
1 – Boston – 95 wins
2 – Baltimore – 87 wins
3 – New York Yankees – 85 wins
4 – Toronto – 77 wins
5 – Tampa Bay – 72 wins
Trading Ramos and Archer upsets the Rays flow. They will continue the downward trend they have been on of late. Toronto is having a Blah Year (“Blah” is a scientific term. What I do here is science). The Yankees are ripe for collapse and will collapse this season, as I have been saying on Twitter for months. Baltimore still has Adam Jones and Buck Showalter. Dave Dombrowksi’s Redsox are exhibit A that Old School Baseball is alive and well.
The Yankees will take off soon. They will catch the Redsox and take sole possession of first place in the AL East. They will then collapse as the Orioles surge. The Orioles will make the playoffs as the second AL Wildcard team just beating out the collapsing Yankees.
AL Central
1 – Minnesota – 87 wins
2 – Cleveland – 82 wins
3 – Kansas City – 72 wins
4 – Detroit – 70 wins
5 – Chicago White Sox – 68 wins
The White Sox could have gotten an addition by subtraction upon trading James Shields. James Shields was not traded though. Detroit continues to rebuild. Kansas City made a great decision not trading Dan Duffy. They will play well down the stretch this season. Cleveland is profoundly overrated. Minnesota made a huge mistake trading Brian Dozier. They have no chance of winning the World Series without him. Still, the division is winnable for them. Byron Buxton’s return will give them a huge boost. The Twins will win the AL Central this year.
AL West
1 – LA Angels – 91 wins
2 – Texas – 88 wins
3 – Houston – 85 wins
4 – Oakland – 83 wins
5 – Seattle – 79 wins
This is a major departure from where I was on this division at the All Star Break.
The Astros, much like the Yankees, are ripe for collapse. I will be writing about this more soon. They, much like the Yankees, will collapse this season. Oakland made a huge mistake trading Ryon Healy this past offseason. Dustin Fowler also has the personality type of a leader, but he is Not Ryon Healy. The Athletics won’t be a playoff team this year. Neither will the Mariners who have lost 11 of 18 since Dipoto got his contract extension. That trend will continue. That team will precipitously collapse, soon. The Rangers traded Cole Hamels. Still, the playoffs are within reach for them. They still have Adrian Beltre, Joey Gallo, and a ton of other excellent players on their roster, plus they have a great manager, and that counts for a lot. As for the Angels? Mike Scioscia is The Big Kahuna. So it is only fitting that his team will be in first place at the end of the season.
NL East
1 – NY Mets – 89 wins
2 – Philadelphia – 83 wins
3 – Atlanta – 83 wins
4 – Miami – 77 wins
5 – Washington – 75 wins
The Mets held on to Jose Bautista. Great decision. They also kept Jacob Degrom. Also a great decision. This Mets team is built to win right now. They will get a huge boost with Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce on the mend. They will win this division. Philadelphia traded for Wilson Ramos. If they were adding him to a lineup led by Eric Hosmer or Matt Kemp I would say “great move.” They are adding him to a lineup led by Carlos Santana. Once that signing was made, there were no more “great moves” to be made for the Phillies. Great one, twerpy little whack little Klentak. That’s his full name. The Braves were rumored to be trying to acquire Adrian Beltre. Another admission that trading Matt Kemp was a huge mistake. They signed Jose Bautista earlier this year. Bautista took Kemp’s place on the roster. Since they waived him, they are 29-30. No wonder they were looking to acquire another elite right handed power hitter with a leadership personality type. Instead, they acquired Kevin Gausman and two relief pitchers from Baltimore. Not good enough. The Nationals season ended the moment they fired Dusty Baker. They will finish last in this division.
NL Central
1 – Chicago Cubs – 97 wins
2 – Pittsburgh – 89 wins
3 – Cincinnati – 87 wins
4 – Milwaukee – 81 wins
5 – St. Louis – 79 wins
This Cubs team is going to take off when they get Yu Darvish back healthy. They have already been playing well. When they get Darvish back, they will run and hide, so to speak. Pittsburgh won 11 games in a row recently. They will make the playoffs this year, as I predicted. The Reds made an excellent decision holding on to Matt Harvey. They are 40-31 since they acquired him. They were 8-27 before the trade. They will make the playoffs this year as the second NL Wild Card team. Milwaukee traded for Moustakas and Schoop. No amount of talent will negate the bad karma the team has from giving Ryan Braun a contract extension last April. The Cardinals need Alex Reyes healthy. They will finish last in this division.
NL West
1 – San Diego – 85 wins
2 – Los Angeles Dodgers – 84 wins
3 – Colorado – 82 wins
4 – Arizona – 80 wins
5 – San Francisco – 78 wins
The Padres have Handsome Hosmer. They have Adorable AJ Ellis. They have Awesome Andy Green. What more do you need? The Dodgers made a huge mistake trading AJ Ellis. That is why they will miss the playoffs this year. Colorado has a manager who has a perpetual deer-in-the-headlights look. He always looks just a bit nauseous. And they have a major Intelligentsia Fail in their bullpen. Arizona’s manager insulted one of the most widely respected players in baseball, Yadier Molina. Bad karma. Speaking of which, the Giants are honoring Barry Bonds in a few weeks. That is why they will finish last this season. That is why they will miss the playoffs this year. And the Yankees decision to bring Alex Rodriguez back to the organization is why they will collapse this season. They will miss the playoffs this year too.
Truth Matters. First principle of SABR Skepticism.
Playoffs
AL Wildcard Game – Baltimore over Texas
NL Wildcard Game – Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
ALDS – Baltimore over Boston in 4 games
– LA Angels over Minnesota in 4 games
NLDS – NY Mets over San Diego in 5 games
– Chicago Cubs over Pittsburgh in 5 games
ALCS – Baltimore over LA Angels in 5 games
NLCS – NY Mets over Chicago Cubs in 7 games
The World Series – Baltimore over NY Mets in 5 games
SABR Skeptic 