San Diego Padres
I picked the Padres to win the NL West this year. I was wrong.
Here is what I missed.
Eric Hosmer is not the most talented player in baseball. But he is one of the few hyper alpha males in baseball. He is talented enough. His leadership will be transformational for the Padres. Still, the roster assembled around him this year was not a MLB-caliber roster.
No player, not even one as handsome as Hosmer could carry Corey Spangenberg, Jose Pirela, Travis Jankowski and Freddy Galvis to a division title. No player, not even Bryce Harper (a hyper male who is leagues above Hosmer in terms of talent) could do that.
The Padres will be in much better shape next season.
Francisco Mejia is an elite prospect. He will be great next season. Hunter Renfroe had a great second half this year. Wil Myers is handsome too. Manuel Margot can play. Luis Urias came up and made an impact late this season. Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the top prospects in all of baseball.
Eric Hosmer will have a much better supporting cast next season.
The rotation is a weak point. The Padres could use an ace for their rotation. There will be many available on the trade market, and the Padres have the farm system to make a deal. They had interest in both Noah Syndergaard and Michael Fulmer at this year’s trade deadline. Either one would be a good choice. Either one would anchor the young pitchers in their rotation and give the team everything it needs to compete for a division title next season.
They would have a leader in their lineup – Hosmer.
They would have a leader in their rotation.
They would have a leader in their bullpen – Kirby Yates who emerged as a great closer late this season.
And they would have a great manager – Andy Green whose leadership has been invaluable for the team in recent years.
The Intelligentsia despises Eric Hosmer.
They hate him and try to tear him down.
Still, Hosmer is handsome. And he is awesome and he’s rich too. So, there’s that.
The wretched, miserable, pathetic, cowardly beta males in the SABRmetrics community declaring “Hosmer is terrible! He wasn’t worth the mega deal!” would do well to remember this. This year was just the beginning for Hosmer in San Diego. They will eat their words, soon.
San Francisco Giants
I picked the Giants to make the playoffs this year as a Wild Card team.
Wrong again!
They got off to a slow start this year without their ace, the October Legend, Madison Bumgarner. They were 26-30 through their first 56 games. Then, Bumgarner returned.
That is when I sent out this tweet –
They went 30-24 in their next 54 games.
One man can turn around a team.
The Intelligentsia talks about baseball as though everything occurs in a vacuum.
“The offense did this!” “Da defense did that!” they say.
But it’s all connected.
Without Bumgarner in the rotation, there was more pressure on each pitcher in the rotation to perform. Increased pressure can lead to diminished performance.
Science.
Diminished performance from the rotation puts the offense under more pressure to score runs.
Duh.
Bumgarner came back and everything fell into place.
The team was poised to make a push for a playoff spot. They were 56-54, just 5 games out of first place in the NL West on August 2nd.
However, their front office had decided to honor Barry Bonds by retiring his number on August 11th.
That was a HUGE mistake on their part.
Our culture has made a decision. It has decided that cheating doesn’t matter.
Tom Brady cheated. So did Alex Rodriguez. They are lionized by our culture.
They should be shunned. So should Barry Bonds.
The Giants were 57-58 going into the weekend of Bonds’s ceremony. They went 16-31 the rest of the way.
Truth Matters. First principle of SABR Skepticism.
The Giants could never win the World Series with Bonds. His last year with the team was 2007. Within three years they won three World Series Championships in five years.
They got good karma from his retirement. They gave that good karma away by honoring him this season.
The Giants have a lot going for them. They are an Old School Baseball Team. Their president of baseball operations, Brian Sabean, has done a great job during his tenure. Bruce Bochy has as well.
The Giants could get right back into playoff contention next season.
They have a leader in their lineup, Evan Longoria. Buster Posey will be back. Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford are great complimentary pieces. A few good additions via trade and free agency and the Giants could field a competitive lineup next year.
The rotation will continue to be a strength. Madison Bumgarner deserves a contract extension. Dereck Rodriguez, son of Ivan Rodriguez, will continue to emerge. Mark Melancon is an elite closer.
While the Giants could be a playoff team again soon, will they be a World Series winning team?
They never won a World Series with Bonds. They won three after he left. Now, he’s back.
Dubious.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks had a Super April.
“Super April” is a scientific term. What I do here is science.
I sent out this tweet on Monday, April 30th, when the Diamondbacks were 19-8
They were 24-11 on Wednesday, May 9th.
Then, they collapsed. They lost 15 of their next 17 games.
They stabilized then. And took off again.
They were 69-56 when I sent out this tweet shortly after Midnight on Tuesday, August 21st
Their record the rest of the season? 13-24.
The Diamondbacks are managed by Torey Lovullo. Lovullo has bad karma from his time in New England.
New England Sports has cheated time and time again – Deflategate, Spygate, Belichick, Brady, Ortiz, Ramirez.
John Farrell took a page out of the Bill Belichick playbook last season. Torey Lovullo had been his bench coach for many years.
Then, late last season, news came out from Arizona that Lovullo was being investigated by Major League Baseball for improper use of technology in the dugout, a similar situation to the one that had just unfolded in New England.
Were the Red Sox punished? Slap on the wrist.
New England Sports has cheated time and time again. And it has paid no price.
Everyone says “the Patriots are so impressive! I’m so impressed by Bill Belichick and Tom Brady!”
Everyone says “the Red Sox are so impressive! David Ortiz is so impressive!”
During his farewell season in 2016, PEDs were almost never mentioned in the media.
Everyone has bought into The Lie about New England sports. But The Truth is The Truth. And it caught up to Lovullo this season in a big way.
Remember. New England Sports thinks it can get away with anything.
John Farrell got a slap on the wrist. So did Torey Lovullo.
So what did Torey Lovullo do this year? He insulted one of the most widely respected players in baseball, Yadier Molina.
Then, this happened.
Then, the Diamondbacks lost 15 out of 17 games.
They could barely score a run during that span.
Sound familiar?
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have had a certain degree of success the past two seasons.
Last year, they won 87 games, and made it to the playoffs as the second NL Wild Card team.
This year, they won 90, making it to the playoffs as the second NL Wild Card team again.
The Intelligentsia said “Jeff Bridich is a Super GM!”
There are two stories in Major League Baseball that are extremely important, and extremely underreported.
In this day and age, we are told “relief pitching is The Next Big Thing!” and “Super Bullpens are the way to go!” and “bullpenning is sohpisticated!”
Relief pitchers were the most widely sought after commodity this past year at the trade deadline. They were signed to lucrative contracts early in last year’s free agency. This, while great veteran power hitters and elite sluggers went unsigned.
Enormous expectations are being placed upon relief pitchers.
They are being told “you, relief pitcher, failed starter, weakling, are the new star of baseball.”
“You, relief pitcher are worth paying more than elite sluggers like Mark Reynolds and Matt Adams. You, relief pitcher are worth paying more than great veteran leaders like Brandon Phillips and Matt Holliday. You, relief pitcher, deserve a contract equivalent to that of Todd Frazier.”
“You, relief pitcher, are worthy of All-Star selections over established veteran position players.”
“You, relief pitcher, are worth trading top prospects for.”
“You, relief pitcher, are Super. Super Player.”
How are relief pitchers handling these high expectations?
They are failing miserably.
This is the most underreported story in baseball today, and it is by FAR the most important.
The vast majority of multi-year, 8 figure contracts for mid-level relief pitchers are failing.
Take the Rockies bullpen for example.
This past offseason, The Intelligentsia proclaimed “The Rockies are building a Super Bullpen!”
They signed Wade Davis, who has been one of the best relief pitchers in baseball the past few seasons, to a 3 year, $52 million deal.
They signed Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee, who have both been capable relief pitchers prior to this season, to 3 year, $27 million deals.
All three signings were disastrous for the Rockies.
Davis’s ERA in 2014, his first full year as a relief pitcher? 1.00 in 72 innings.
It was 0.94 the next season, 1.87 the year after that, and 2.30 last year.
He blew a total of five saves during the last three seasons combined.
This year? After getting paid?
Davis had a 4.13 ERA. He blew 6 saves this season.
How about Shaw? His highest ERA in his entire career was 3.52, last season.
This year? After getting paid?
His ERA ballooned to 5.93 in 54.2 innings pitched. He was left off the Rockies postseason roster.
And McGee? How did he do?
His ERA ballooned from 3.61 to 6.49. That in 51.1 innings pitched.
Those are large sample sizes, to borrow a phrase.
Are these relief pitchers pressing to meet the high expectations of their contracts?
That is one contribution Jeff Bridich has made to the Rockies. The Super Bullpen.
Meanwhile, the team’s core was assembled by Dan O’Dowd, the Old School Baseball Dude who was in charge of the team for 15 years before he was shunted aside in favor of the Harvard grad.
Nolan Arenado? Drafted by Dan O’Dowd.
Charlie Blackmon? Drafted by Dan O’Dowd.
Carlos Gonzalez? Acquired by Dan O’Dowd.
Trevor Story? Drafted by Dan O’Dowd.
Kyle Freeland? Drafted by Dan O’Dowd.
Jon Gray? Drafted by Dan O’Dowd.
DJ LeMahieu? Drafted by Dan O’Dowd.
David Dahl? Drafted by Dan O’Dowd.
Yet The Intelligentsia gives Bridich all the credit. This, despite the fact that his Super Bullpen was a catastrophic failure.
The Old School Baseball Dude built the team. He was shunted aside and replaced by a Snobby Intellectual who is getting all the credit.
This is a common phenomenon in baseball today.
We are told “Old School Baseball is a thing of the past!” and “Old School Baseball is stupid!” and “the Old School Baseball GMs are terrible and awful and the Super GMs with their Ivy League degrees and flaccid penises are where it’s at!”
Yet look around the league. The Super GMs are coasting off the accomplishments of the Old School Dudes. And they are ruining the great teams that the Old School Dudes built.
Would Dan O’Dowd have invested $100 million in a bunch of weak relief pitchers and given Charlie Blackmon a contract extension over the team’s alpha male Nolan Arenado?
The Rockies offense was anemic in the NLDS this year. Maybe that is because the team was under an inordinate amount of pressure to win this year because Arenado could be leaving the team after this season because the genius in the front office paid the beta male with the beard instead of the alpha male with the face.
Gosh he’s handsome.
Los Angeles Dodgers
I picked the Dodgers to miss the playoffs this season. I was wrong.
They were ten games under .500 in mid-May. Their fans were telling me on Twitter “you’re stupid!”
The Dodgers made the playoffs this year. But I stand by my analysis 10000 % that trading AJ Ellis was a catastrophic mistake.
Why did the Dodgers lose 16 out of 17 games late last season?
Why did Clayton Kershaw blow a 4 run lead in Game 5 of the World Series last year?
Why were the Dodgers ten games under .500 in mid-May?
Why did the Dodgers win a meager 92 games this year when everyone was saying they are something known as a “Super Team” ???????
Before Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi were brought in, the Dodgers were run by an Old School Baseball Dude named Ned Colletti.
Who drafted Clayton Kershaw? Ned Colletti.
Who signed Hyun-Jin Ryu? Ned Colletti.
Who signed Yasiel Puig? Ned Colletti.
Who drafted Joc Pederson? Ned Colletti.
Who drafted Cody Bellinger? Ned Colletti.
Who drafted Corey Seager? Ned Colletti
Who drafted Ross Stripling? Ned Colletti.
Who signed Justin Turner? Ned Colletti.
Who signed Kenley Jansen? Ned Colletti.
What, exactly, have Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi brought to the Dodgers other than beta male awfulness and smug condescension?
They, like the rest of the Super GMs are coasting off the accomplishments of Old School Baseball.
Now, because Ned Colletti built a great team, the Dodgers are back in the NLCS.
Their fans are hopeful that they will win the World Series.
NO CHANCE.
The Los Angeles Dodgers will not be winning the World Series during Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi’s tenure. 100 %.
That case was closed the moment that AJ Ellis was traded away.
The Intelligentsia ripped out this team’s heart and soul. They spat in the face of the entire clubhouse.
They love to dismiss the idea of team chemistry. They act as though baseball team’s are nothing more than a collection of numbers on an Excel spreadsheet.
Chemistry Matters. Second principle of SABR Skepticism.
After the Dodgers end yet another season with a loss, will Clayton Kershaw stay with the team that spat in his face? Or will he go to a team.
SABR Skeptic 
