Cincinnati Reds
Here are some of the things I said about the Reds prior to this season
“The Reds aren’t as far off as people think”
“The conventional wisdom that no one player can turn around a team is patently false”
“Often, teams are a leader-type player in one facet of the game away from contending. That’s the position the Reds are in now.”
“Do {the Reds} need to keep Nick Senzel around when they have a third baseman already, Eugenio Suarez?”
“{An ace type starting pitcher} is the only thing that’s missing in order for this team to contend.”
“This team doesn’t need to ‘rebuild.’ Prospects are overrated.”
“the team has a leadership vacuum in the rotation. No matter how high Joey Votto’s OBP is, it can’t make up for that.”
The Reds got off to a brutal start this year. They lost 18 of their first 21 games.
At that time, I relentlessly implored the Reds to trade for an ace starting pitcher, day after day on Twitter.
Here is a sample of my tweets from that time:
The Reds traded for Matt Harvey on the night of May 8th. The next day, I sent out this tweet
The Reds were 8-27 at the time of the trade. They proceeded to win their next 6 games, including a 4 game sweep of the defending NL Champion Dodgers in Los Angeles. By the time of the trade deadline on July 31st, the team had improved to 48-58. That’s a record of 40-31 following the trade for Harvey, after an 8-27 start.
The team then became a team at the crossroads. Which direction were they going to go in? They clearly lacked just one thing in order to compete long term – an ace starting pitcher. With Harvey due to become a free agent after the season, would the team go right back to awfulness? Or would they re-sign him or acquire another ace pitcher and contend for years to come?
With that uncertainty, the team fell apart. They finished the season with a record of 67-95. Still, the impact that Harvey had on the team is undeniable. 40-31 following an 8-27 start. That’s the impact that one player can make on a team. And this despite Harvey’s noted character flaws.
The Reds are right back to where they were at the start of this season.
Dallas Keuchel will be a free agent this offseason.
The Reds are not as far off as people think. One man can turn around a team.
Pittsburgh Pirates
I picked the Pirates to make the playoffs this year as a Wild Card team. They got off to a great start. They were 26-17, in first place in the NL Central on May 17th.
Things fell off the rails then. They were 40-48 by July 7th.
Understandable for a team that had just traded two key pieces, Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole. They got an addition by subtraction without those players, as I predicted they would. But that put their team into a state of flux, transitioning from a team led by McCutchen and Cole to one led by Meadows and Taillon.
They have a great manager, Clint Hurdle. They had a great young core led by Austin Meadows. They had a great young rotation led by Jameson Taillon and the emerging Trevor Williams. And they had a great closer, Felipe Vazquez.
That is why I sent out this tweet on July 11th when the Pirates were 7 games under .500
The Pirates proceeded to go on an 11 game winning streak.
This, against the Washington Nationals, who The Intelligentsia said was a “Super Team” but who had a terrible season!
This, against the Milwaukee Brewers who ended up winning the division.
This, against the Cincinnati Reds who had taken off, as I predicted.
This, against the Cleveland Indians who The Intelligentsia said was a “Super Team” but who weren’t that Super after all were they now?
The Intelligentsia is played out.
Their predictive models miss a lot. For one thing, personality type.
The predictive models of The Intelligentsia said “trading Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow for Chris Archer will make the Pirates a Super Team. Archer is a Super Pitcher!”
Chris Archer is a weak beta male who is totally incapable of holding a lead late in a ball game. WEAK!
I will quote myself at length now. Here is what I said about Archer prior to this season
“Buyer Beware on Archer …
Chris Archer is a walking argument for the importance of the win-loss record.
Situation matters.
Whatever lead Archer is given by his teams, he finds a way to blow it.
Weak.
How many one or two run leads has Archer surrendered late in starts in recent years?
Many.
His high loss totals are not a fluke. I don’t care how many strikeouts Archer compiles early in games when his team is losing. I care about how he pitches when his team needs him to win games. He isn’t very good at that.
Weak.
Does Archer have the personality type that you need your ace starting pitcher to have?
No. He doesn’t.
Any team thinking about acquiring him at the trade deadline should keep that in mind. Archer would thrive in a number 2 role. That’s his role. If you are looking for a pitcher to lead your pitching staff, Chris Archer is not who you want. Only trade for Archer if you already have an established ace. Archer is not an ace, and never will be.”
The Pirates traded Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow to acquire Archer.
Meadows’s stock had declined due to poor performance at AAA. What everyone missed, except for me that is, is this – Meadows was ready for The Show. People only thrive in their proper roles.
Tyler Glasnow’s proper role is not relief pitcher. Tyler Glasnow is a starting pitcher, as I said early this season.
Aside from one poor start against the Toronto Blue Jays on September 5th, Glasnow pitched very well as a starting pitcher after being acquired by the Tampa Bay Rays. And Austin Meadows will be an All Star soon.
How about the Pirates? How did they do after trading for Chris Archer, Super Pitcher.
They were 55-52 at the time of the trade. They were 66-69 by September 1st. They managed to finish the season with a winning record, but who cares?
Neal Huntington made one of the worst trades of all time trading Meadows and Glasnow for Archer.
Personality Type Matters. A beta male can never be an ace.
St. Louis Cardinals
This is the first thing to understand about the St. Louis Cardinals.
A man from their front office went to prison for over two years following a federal investigation into alleged improprieties by their front office as it relates to the hacking of the the data of a rival organization.
John Mozeliak was the GM of the team when the improprieties took place. Yet he remained in charge of the team after.
In order for the Cardinals to truly move on from the hacking scandal, they will need to replace John Moezliak with someone from outside the organization.
The Cardinals have struggled on defense in recent years.
Many have scratched their heads and asked “why is it that a team that traditionally plays such excellent fundamental baseball is having so much trouble on defense? What is going on here?”
It’s obvious.
What was the data that the Cardinals were stealing from the Houston Astros?
Spray charts.
The Cardinals led the league in errors this season by a wide margin.
Karma Matters. Truth Matters. First principle of SABR Skepticism.
The Cardinals as a team have a lot going for them.
Jordan Hicks emerged this year as one of the best young relief pitchers in baseball. He throws the ball harder than anyone not named Aroldis Chapman. He has closer written all over him.
Miles Mikolas emerged as one of the best young starting pitchers in baseball. Jack Flaherty, a top prospect, is living up to the hype. And Alex Reyes could win the Cy Young award next year. He’s that good.
On the position player side, Dexter Fowler has been a disappointment. A HUGE disappointment.
But the Cardinals have a ton of talented young position players including Jose Martinez, Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong. And they have two great leaders, Matt Carpenter and Yadier Molina.
The problem for them is this. Their organization needs new leadership.
The Cardinals hacking scandal is a real hacking scandal, unlike the Mueller/Comey/left-wing ATTACK on Trump/America.
The team will be limited in what they can achieve if their organization doesn’t make a good choice, just like America will be limited in what it can achieve if the electorate doesn’t make a good choice at the polls two years from now.
Donald Trump 2020.
Chicago Cubs
Alex Rodriguez has never apologized for using PEDs. Alex Rodriguez is a liar. A snake.
Yet he was welcomed back to the Yankees in 2015 after serving his 162 game suspension. This despite the scorched earth campaign that he waged against the Yankees organization and anyone else who dared to challenge him.
Alex Rodriguez is a construct. A facade.
The facade collapsed in 2016. Rodriguez was sent away by Hal Steinbrenner and the Yankees organization. Fox Sports, who love their sociopaths, brought him in, beginning our culture’s hideous embrace of him.
Alex Rodriguez and the rest of the snakes should be shunned, not worshiped.
ESPN brought him in this year. It’s odd. Is there another figure in sports who is allowed to work for both ESPN and Fox Sports as Alex Rodriguez does? How accommodating.
Alex Rodriguez is a liar. So when he speaks he says things that are untrue.
Joe Maddon is not a liar. Joe Maddon is a good man. That is why he stood up for Yu Darvish when Alex Rodriguez attacked him.
Here is the problem. Joe Maddon should not have “made peace” with Alex Rodriguez.
Joe Maddon should never have spoken to him in the first place.
There is no point speaking to liars. Snakes. Speak to a snake, and you will get bit.
Joe Maddon and the Cubs got bit by the snake this year. That is why I picked them to lose the NL Central when they had a 1 game lead over the Brewers with 2 games to play in the regular season. That is why I picked them to lose the NL Wild Card game to the Rockies. I predicted that they would be shut out. They scored 1 run in 13 innings.
The Cubs got bit by a snake. Poor Willson Contreras was crying on the bench after the game.
Joe Maddon is a beautiful man with a beautiful soul. The Cubs will be drained of the venom that infected their team this season soon enough.
A word of advice. When a snake speaks to you, tune them out the moment they start talking.
Milwaukee Brewers
Something interesting is happening with the Milwaukee Brewers, who currently hold a 1-0 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.
Yes, bullpenning. That’s a story for another day.
Take one look at Alex Rodriguez’s face. LIES.
Take one look at Ryan Braun’s face.
Ryan Braun apologized for using PEDs. He has sought forgiveness.
He should be forgiven. Whatever happens the rest of this season.
SABR Skeptic 