Cleveland Indians
I picked the Indians to miss the playoffs this year. I was wrong.
Still, in a year when The Intelligentsia described them as a “Super Team” they won a meager 91 games, en route to being swept in the ALDS, as I predicted.
Why did I predict that the Indians would be swept in the ALDS, which they were, by the way.
There are many reasons
- A Super Bullpen
- Cody Allen struggled very badly this season. Why is that? He had been a very reliable closer for the Indians in recent years. What happened?
Perhaps this is what happened. This is what happened.
Cody Allen is a relief pitcher. And he is a free agent after this season.
Relief pitchers are being given contracts that they do not deserve. They are pressing to meet the high expectations of these contracts, as I have documented here.
This is the most underreported story in baseball. And it is by far the most important.
Cody Allen saw Wade Davis receive a three year, $52 million deal this past offseason. He knows a similar payday is right around the corner for him.
No pressure Cody!
How were his statistics this season?
He blew five saves, more than he ever had.
WEAK!
His ERA was up nearly two full runs from 2.94 to 4.70 he’s terrible!
And he’ll still get a Super Contract from the Super People!
In the division series, Cody Allen was brought in in middle relief. But he is a closer. The Super People say that “it doesn’t matter what inning the closer pitches in. Bring him in in the 5th inning with runners on base and the other relievers will necessarily pitch as well!”
And these people claim to be “sophisticated.”
A bullpen is a delicate hierarchy.
The closer protects the other relievers.
In a traditional bullpen, the setup relievers pitch knowing that if they slip, the closer still has their back. If you bring the closer in to pitch in the fifth inning, then the other relievers have no protection.
“If I get into a jam here, where will The Closer be?”
Cue the three run home run.
Also, the closer may not be as effective in the fifth knowing that his setup relievers are out there in the bullpen all alone naked and afraid.
“If I get into a jam here, who are they bringing in? Which of the weaklings will it be?”
Cue the three run home run.
What was Cody Allen’s ERA this year in the division series?
54.00.
Super!
Brad Hand is a failed starting pitcher.
He enjoyed some success as a relief pitcher in the bullpen for the San Diego Padres last season, in a setup role. When the Padres traded their closer last year, Hand took over. How did he do?
He blew 5 saves in 26 opportunities. His ERA was 2.16. But his inability to close games should have been a red flag.
Yet he was given a 3 year, $20 million deal.
How did he perform under the weight of those expectations?
He blew his second save opportunity this season. He had four blown saves by the time he was selected to the All Star team early in July. And guess what? He blew his first save opportunity after his All Star selection was announced.
He had a 3.05 ERA. It’s illegal for the feeble to see beyond that.
Despite his five blown saves at the All Star break, Hand was one of the most sought after commodities on the trade market. The Indians had to trade one of the top prospects in all of baseball, catcher Francisco Mejia (who, by the way, is a damn good power hitter), in order to acquire him.
Hand was ok for the Indians. He had a 2.28 ERA, but he blew two saves in ten opportunities. And he had a 10.80 ERA in the Postseason, but, to be fair, it was a small sample size.
With Allen due to become a free agent, Hand is likely to be the Indians closer next season. Francisco Mejia will be crushing home runs and slugging .500 for the Padres. Hand will be aware of that. How will he do?
When Andrew Miller received his 4 year, $36 million contract prior to the 2015 season, relief pitchers were not as highly valued as they are now. Thus, Miller pitched well, very well, in the first three years of his deal. This past year, though, heading into free agency, with another Super Contract on the horizon, he stumbled. His ERA was 4.24 and he was injured for much of the season.
Pressing can lead to both ineffectiveness and injury. There are real consequences to the pernicious ideas of The Intelligentsia.
They were supposed to have a Super Bullpen. Cody Allen. Brad Hand. Andrew Miller. Their bullpen was anything but.
How about their rotation?
Why did Corey Kluber struggle in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Astros?
Terry Francona started him in Game 2 last season. He started Trevor Bauer in Game 1.
That threw the hierarchy of their rotation into a state of confusion.
Trevor Bauer is a good pitcher. But Corey Kluber is indisputably the ace of the Indians.
Bauer pitched great in game 1. Everyone said “it worked!”
Then, Kluber didn’t pitch well in game 2. Everyone said “Francona made a great decision pitching Bauer in game 1 and Kluber in game 2!”
Would Corey Kluber have pitched that poorly if he had started in game 1? Would Trevor Bauer have pitched any worse in game 2? Would Trevor Bauer have pitched as poorly as he did in game 4 if the Corey Kluber backing him up in game 5 was coming off a dominant game 1 performance as opposed to an awful game 2?
This year, Kluber finally got his game 1 start. He had pitched poorly in his last three Postseason starts, going back to game 7 of the World Series against the Chicago Cubs.
No pressure!
Kluber was terrible in game 1.
People only thrive in their proper roles.
How about the Indians offense? They didn’t do much in the ALDS against the Astros. Was that because the Astros have a Super Rotation?
Every year in baseball the same thing happens. The teams that have the most success in the regular season, the teams that clinch their divisions the earliest, struggle on offense in the Postseason. That is why so few 100 win teams win the World Series, at least in the Wild Card era.
Why do teams that clinch early struggle on offense in the Postseason?
Baseball is a game of rhythm. And timing. And momentum. Days off and half days and other things that supposedly will help players perform in the Postseason actually end up hurting their performance.
How to keep players fresh for the Postseason? That’s a question for another day.
What is clear is this. The Indians offense scored just 6 runs in 3 games in the series.
They won the AL Central by 13 games this year over the Minnesota Twins, who kindly conceded the division to them with over two months to play in the season.
Perhaps the lack of any meaningful games late in the season had a detrimental effect on their performance in the Postseason?
Minnesota Twins
I saw a headline on a website a few weeks back. It said “Thad Levine is doing a great job with the Minnesota Twins.”
The Minnesota Twins used to be run by an Old School Baseball Dude named Terry Ryan. He was shunted aside in favor of Thad Levine of The Intelligentsia.
The Twins had just had a great season in 2015. First year manager Paul Molitor did a great job guiding the team to 83 wins. They were in the mix for a Postseason spot until the final weekend of the regular season.
The next season, they took a huge step back.
Why is that? The retirement of Torii Hunter had a lot to do with it.
Still, the conventional wisdom in Major League Baseball in recent years has been that Old School Dudes like Terry Ryan are the problem and that young intellectuals like Thad Levine are the solution, and so Ryan was sent off, and Levine was brought in.
The team had a great season last year. They won 85 games and made the Postseason as a Wild Card Team.
The Intelligentsia said “Thad Levine is doing a great job!”
He was coasting off Terry Ryan’s accomplishments, just like Bridich has been coasting off O’Dowd’s accomplishments, like Klentak has been coasting off of Amaro Jr.’s accomplishments, like Friedman has been coasting off of Colletti’s accomplishments and like Luhnow has been coasting off of Wade’s accomplishments.
Byron Buxton? Drafted by Terry Ryan.
Miguel Sano? Signed by Terry Ryan.
Bryan Dozier? Drafted by Terry Ryan.
Eddie Rosario? Drafted by Terry Ryan.
Max Kepler? Drafted by Terry Ryan.
Jose Berrios? Drafted by Terry Ryan.
Earvin Santana? Signed by Terry Ryan.
Kyle Gibson? Drafted by Terry Ryan.
Eduardo Escobar? Signed by Terry Ryan.
Joe Mauer? Drafted by Terry Ryan.
Great job Thad!
This past offseason was Levine’s chance to make the Twins his own. To make his mark. How did he do?
The Twins could have won the AL Central this year. No question. All they needed was a minor tweak here and there. A veteran position player. A starting pitcher. A closer.
One of each.
Too many cooks spoil the broth.
Levine signed Logan Morrison, a veteran first baseman.
He traded for Jake Odorizzi and signed Lance Lynn. The Twins already had Gibson, Berrios, Santana and Adalberto Mejia as well as top prospects Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves waiting in the wings. Why, exactly, did the Twins need two starters this past offseason?
He signed Zach Duke, a setup man for the bullpen. But he signed both Addison Reed and Fernando Rodney, two closer-caliber relief pitchers. Would they have been better off with just one or the other?
Reed was a disaster this year for the Twins. He had four blown saves and a 4.83 ERA when Levine traded Brian Dozier on July 31st.
Rodney was subpar as well. He had six blown saves when Levine traded him on August 7th.
Odorizzi had a 4.58 ERA with a 4-7 win-loss record on July 31st.
Lynn had a 5.10 ERA and a 7-8 win-loss record when Levine traded him on July 27th.
Morrison played in just 95 games for the Twins this year, posting a .186 batting average, a .276 obp and a .368 slugging percentage with just 15 home runs and 39 RBIs.
Still, despite the poor offseason moves by Levine, the Twins had a lot going for them this year. Terry Ryan built a great team, after all.
They trailed the first place Indians by just 7 games when Levine traded Eduardo Escobar on Friday, July 27th, and they were just 8 games out when he traded Brian Dozier on Tuesday, July 31st.
The predictive models of The Intelligentsia said that the Minnesota Twins had no chance to catch the Super Team.
The predictive models of The Intelligentsia miss a lot.
Basic group dynamics. Basic human psychology. Heart and soul.
The Intelligentsia says that front offices should not make decisions based on “emotion.” That they should be “rational.”
Following the feeble, statistics-driven premises of The Intelligentsia does not make you “rational.” It makes you a pathetic conformist.
When Levine traded Escobar, the Twins were coming off a win over the Boston Red Sox, who they had just won 2 out of 3 against a few weeks prior.
When he traded Dozier, they were coming off a win over the Cleveland Indians. They had plenty of games left against them. Plenty of time to catch up.
Logan Forsythe posted good numbers for the Twins. His numbers were far better than Dozier’s were in the second half. Still, Logan Forsythe is Not Brian Dozier. That is his full name and it is his real name too.
The Intelligentsia says “just add up all the numbers of all the players and that’s what makes wins and losses.”
Baseball players are more than numbers on an Excel spreadsheet.
Brian Dozier is a human being. Eduardo Escobar is a human being. The relationships formed by teammates matter.
If the Minnesota Twins had kept Escobar and Dozier they would have won the AL Central this year. 100 %.
But Thad Levine read “Ahead of the Curve” by Brian Kenny. So he didn’t want to get “emotional.” Just 7 games out in the division on July 27th.
Levine and the Twins gave bullpenning a go one afternoon in September. It was a colossal failure.
That afternoon was a microcosm for the Twins season. They are the team most adversely affected by Brian Kenny’s pernicious ideas this season.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals had a tough year this year. But they have a lot going for them going into 2019.
Wily Peralta will be a great closer.
They will have a good rotation next year.
In a day and age where we are told “take starting pitchers and turn them into relief pitchers!” the Royals, an Old School Team led by an Old School Dude named Dayton Moore, turned Brad Keller, relief pitcher, into Brad Keller, starting pitcher. He will be a key piece for the Royals next season.
Jakob Junis will as well. He pitched well for the Royals late in 2017. He took a step back this year, but he is poised to bounce back next year.
Ian Kennedy is a capable MLB starter.
And then there is Dan “Bury Me a Royal” Duffy. There were rumors that Duffy would be traded this past offseason. That is when he sent out his famous tweet. He had an awful year this year for the Royals with an ERA approaching 6.00. So, his trade value is nil. He will be back with the team next year.
That’s good news for the Royals. His leadership will make every pitcher in that rotation better.
And then there is the lineup. The Royals played great down the stretch this year. They got key contributions from a number of their young position players including Whit Merrifield, Brett Phillips and Adalberto Mondesi. Alex Gordon is still around. Gosh he’s handsome. So is Salvador Perez, one of the best leaders in all of baseball. And there is also Jorge Soler, who was a major breakout player this year, before his season ended prematurely due to injury.
I predicted that Soler would be a breakout player this year. This when everyone was saying “he’s awful” and “he’s not a player” and asking “what is wrong with this guy? He has so much potential.”
I know a Legit Dude when I see one.
There is also Ned Yost, the manager of the Royals. Dayton Moore was wise to give him a one year extension at the conclusion of this season.
Ned Yost, despite his foolish predilection for trophy hunting (Right-Wing Hippie is how I would describe my worldview), is a good manager. The Royals are in good hands with him going forward.
Chicago White Sox
It was a tough year for the White Sox. But they have a lot going for them heading into next season.
They will get a huge addition by subtraction without James Shields in their starting rotation. That isn’t meant to be a knock on Shields. But he is a bad fit on that team.
Despite the foolish decision to put Michael Kopech under the knife, the White Sox have the potential to have a tremendous starting rotation next season.
Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez both have the potential to be elite starting pitchers. Carlos Rodon had a big bounceback year this year. Carson Fulmer’s hair is terrible, but he could contribute next year.
In the lineup, the White Sox have a star in the making. Yoan Moncada is due to have a huge breakout season. He will be an All Star next year. And Eloy Jimenez will be a great wingman for him.
The team has a ton of good role players around them including Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson and Daniel Palka.
God willing, Jose Abreu will recover and will return to his role as the leader of this team.
Early this season, I clamored day after day for the White Sox to fire Rick Renteria. And I knocked Rick Hahn relentlessly for keeping him around. I was wrong to do so. Renteria is the right man to manage the White Sox going forward. And Hahn has done a great job as the General Manager of that team.
Look for big things from the Royals and White Sox going forward.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are expanding their use of analytics.
Why?
So they can be just like everyone else?
A wise man once said “you have to be unique to survive in this game”.
Indeed.
SABR Skeptic 
