The Houston Astros
Jeff Luhnow has been coasting off the accomplishments of Ed Wade, the Old School Baseball Dude who used to run the team, as I have documented here extensively.
It was Ed Wade who drafted Dallas Keuchel. Without Keuchel, the Astros never would have gotten Verlander last year at the trade deadline. No Verlander. No World Series Championship. No Keuchel. No Verlander. No Wade. No Keuchel.
Wade also drafted George Springer, the alpha male of the team’s young core (Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa, Luhnow’s guys, may put up good numbers, but they aren’t leaders … Springer is). And he brought Jose Altuve, the team’s leader, to the MLB.
The Astros got off to a great start early in 2015. That was before Correa was called up to The Show. The team was mediocre that year after Correa got there. And they missed the playoffs entirely the following season, the year of Bregman’s debut.
And if Dallas Keuchel hadn’t called out Luhnow last year at the trade deadline when Luhnow wanted to sit on his hands like a coward, then the Astros never would have gotten Justin Verlander, and they never would have won the World Series.
Dallas Keuchel was acting as an avatar for Ed Wade last season. Going all-in on a trade for a top flight starting pitcher? That was Old School Baseball at its finest. And it was brought to you by Dallas Keuchel, Ed Wade’s guy NOT Jeff Luhnow.
The Astros won the World Series last year because of Altuve and Springer’s leadership, elite starting pitching, and an Old School “one man can turn around a team” mentality, not because Charlie Morton pitched out of the bullpen in Game 7.
That is the real story of the 2017 Houston Astros.
Yet, The Intelligentsia took their World Series victory as a victory for themselves.
They used to say “Postseason results are irrelevant; it’s all luck!”
That is back when Old School Teams like the Royals and Giants were winning every year.
Once their beloved Astros, with the snobby GM, won it all? They were doing cartwheels and declaring that the case was closed in the war of ideas between Old School Baseball and The Intelligentsia.
Let’s say that the 2017 Houston Astros really were an Intelligentsia Success Story, which they weren’t. Would that necessarily prove that SABRmetrics is a better approach than Old School Baseball?
Under that reasoning, wouldn’t the 2014 and 2015 seasons prove just the opposite?
The 2014 Oakland Athletics traded Yoenis Cespedes. Then they totally collapsed before losing to the Kansas City Royals in the AL Wild Card Game. The World Series that year was played between the Royals and the San Francisco Giants. The Giants won, but the Royals made it back the next year, and won the World Series, beating the New York Mets in the process. The Mets were led by who? Yoenis Cespedes, who they had acquired at the trade deadline that year.
In truth, that was a victory for Old School Baseball, just like last year’s Astros were as well.
The Truth is on the side of Old School Baseball. The Truth is on the side of a traditional approach, not the supposedly “progressive” approach of the SABRmetricians.
Those who say they are on the side of “progress” are really leading us backwards.
And they are dishonest too.
Would the Astros have won the World Series last year if Jeff Luhnow and The Intelligentsia weren’t doctoring the baseballs?
Yes. 100 %. Ed Wade built a great team.
Luhnow and The Intelligentsia just had to contribute something.
Super Spin Rate!
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics had a good year this year. They won 95 games and made it to the Postseason as a Wild Card team.
So, Billy Beane is a good GM after all?
Of course not. What a ridiculous idea that is. Who would ever say such a thing?
Every time the Athletics are on the cusp of greatness, Beane trades the team’s best player.
It happened after the 2004 season, when he traded away Tim Hudson.
It happened in 2009, when he traded Matt Holliday.
It happened in 2014, when he traded Yoenis Cespedes.
And it happened after the 2017 season, when he traded Ryon Healy.
Healy was the leader of the As young core of position players. He was the alpha male of the group that included Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Mark Canha.
Without Healy there, Olson was exposed, and his numbers took a big hit this year, as I predicted they would.
The As found another alpha male to take Healy’s place on the roster. He provided some protection for the team’s young core, but the team was a simulacrum of what it would have been with Healy as its leader.
Was this a successful season for the As?
Why did the As take off in June? Talk to The Intelligentsia, and they will tell you that it is because of relief pitching.
True, Blake Treinen had a great year this year as the As closer, and they had good relief pitchers setting up for him. But the As didn’t get going this year until they had Brett Anderson, Edwin Jackson and Trevor Cahill in their rotation.
Anderson, Jackson and Cahill are exactly the kind of starting pitchers that The Intelligentsia says should be turned into relief pitchers. Ditto Mike Fiers who the As traded for at the deadline in July.
All four made a huge impact for the As this year as starting pitchers.
Then, late in the season, the team changed its approach, and began to implement “bullpenning” which has become a trendy thing to do around baseball.
The players weren’t happy. And the team ended up losing the division to the Houston Astros.
If they had kept their starting pitcher-centric approach, would they have won the division this year?
If they had kept Ryon Healy, would they have finally advanced farther than the ALDS in the Postseason?
The decision to implement “bullpenning” hurt the As late this season. It did, however, make Billy Beane the center of attention. And Beane loves nothing more than to be the center of attention. Is that why he trades away the team’s best player every time they are on the cusp of greatness? Is he intimidated by powerful alpha males?
One more note on the As. Bob Melvin deserves a ton of credit for this team’s success.
He is an older manager. Not exactly the textbook example of The Intelligentsia’s ideal manager. His contract is up at the end of this season.
He deserves an extension.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners got off to a good start this year. They were 24-19 through their first 43 games.
Then, Robinson Cano got suspended for using PEDs.
The team took off.
They were 24 games over .500 by the time Jerry Dipoto got his contract extension on July 6th.
That has been Jerry Dipoto’s goal with the Mariners the entire time. He has traded away the team’s key pieces – Taijuan Walker from the rotation. Tyler O’Neill, the team’s top prospect.
The players that the Mariners got in exchange for those players have contributed. Jean Segura has hit. As has Mitch Haniger, although he fell off precipitously after a hot April. Marco Gonzales has been ok, although he began to struggle just as Tyler O’Neill was getting going in St. Louis.
Weird.
Also weird?
The moment Jerry Dipoto got his contract extension from the Mariners, the team totally fell apart.
They had been playing great without Robinson Cano.
Good PED karma?
Irrelevant after Dipoto signed Dee Gordon, another second baseman with a history of PED use.
Gordon cheated the game. Gordon defrauded Major League Baseball. Gordon lied his way to a $100 million contract, just like Cano lied his way to his $250 million deal.
Jerry Dipoto wants the Mariners to fail. He wants the team to be mediocre. He wants to be the star of the team. He wants all of The Cool Kids to say “Jerry, you may have been an awful MLB player, but you are the most Super GM of all! You are the most brilliant GM of all!”
Just look at how The Cool Kids treat Billy Beane despite twenty plus years of failure.
This much is clear.
The Mariners were 24 games over .500. Then, Jerry Dipoto got a contract extension. Then, the team totally fell apart.
Their record from the point Dipoto got his contract extension?
33-41.
To borrow a phrase, that is a HUGE sample size.
The Jerry Dipoto System is a bad system indeed.
The bullpen has two closers, Diaz and Colome. You only need one closer.
Too many cooks spoil the broth.
No Taijuan Walker in the rotation? There is a leadership vacuum there.
Leadership Matters. Third principle of SABR Skepticism.
The team has plenty of talent in the lineup. But they have bad PED karma via Gordon, and now Cano as well.
And take one look at their manager’s face. Does that look like the face of a man who should be leading a Major League Baseball team?
Now, take one look at the face of the man who managed the last team Dipoto was in charge of.
No wonder Dipoto hired Scott Servais to be the manager of the Mariners.
He got driven out of Anaheim by Mike Scioscia with his tail between his legs. He wanted a manager who he could push around, not the right man for the job.
Mike Scioscia? He is The Big Kahuna.
Scott Servais? Just call that little man Jerry Said.
The Mariners have a lot of talent on their team. They have the potential to be a playoff team in the next two years.
Winning the AL West? We’ll see.
Winning the World Series?
No chance.
But The Cool Kids will still say “Jerry you’re a genius!”
That’s all he cares about.
The Intelligentsia is only in it for the fame and fortune.
Anaheim Angels
The Angels made a huge mistake firing Mike Scioscia aka The Big Kahuna.
Some of the best managers in the history of baseball are currently free agents.
There is Scioscia. Buck Showalter. Dusty Baker. Joe Girardi.
John Gibbons too.
The Intelligentsia has succeeded in their evil scheme to replace the Old School Dudes with the Super GMs.
Now, they have hatched yet another evil scheme. This time, to replace the Old School Managers with Super Managers, like Gabe Kapler, he of the 80-82 Phillies, the Phillies that totally collapsed down the stretch while Brian Snitker’s Old School Braves ran away with the NL East Division Title.
Why are the Old School Managers being replaced again?
We live in an age where people have given up on two things.
- Belief
- Fighting evil
Our culture’s worship of Alex Rodriguez, Tom Brady and the rest of the snakes says it all.
We need to take a stand for what is right.
We need to fight evil. We need to fight wickedness.
Cheating is not ok. Lying is not ok.
Look around you.
Look around you at our culture. At our civilization.
We can do a lot better than this.
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers had a very talented team this year. They had a well constructed team. Jon Daniels is a good general manager, and Jeff Bannister is a good manager.
They struggled mightily this season.
Why is that?
The Astros beat them to The Prize.
That clearly shook them up. Badly.
Jon Daniels has fired Jeff Bannister.
Understandable.
The Rangers need a fresh start.
SABR Skeptic 
